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For the first time in years we enter the Sanremo final with a sense of uncertainty around the looming result. I have around 4 entries down as very likely to make the final 5, let’s take a look at the contenders:

Geolier: Neapolitan rapper Geolier caused a shock result and uproar in the Ariston last night by winning covers night. Rumours have been circulating on Twitter that Geolier had attained at least 51% of the televote in a 15 song field on Wednesday and the covers night result seems to have given these rumours credibility. Geolier’s colossal televote is being driven by regional voting in Naples. He is rapping in the Neapolitan language, which has generated a backlash amongst the right in Italy but also mobilised voters in the South who feel like he is a victim of anti-Southernism. We know Geolier’s support amongst the press jury is poor but there remains some question marks around the radio jury considering his song is getting airplay and the radio jury is weighted by regional population.

Angelina: Rising star Angelina has momentum behind her after winning Wednesday night and coming 2nd on covers night. Her song “La Noia” has also been rising on streaming platforms such as Spotify and Amazon Music. We know that she has strong press support and will almost certainly be the favourite of the press jury in the superfinal. Angelina’s surprise loss during covers night has generated sentiment that she was “robbed”. Her covers night performance has received over 30 million views, charted on Apple Music and she has gained almost 200,000 followers in the space of less than 12 hours. This “robbed” sentiment can be enough for juries to coalesce around her and stop Geolier. One glaring uncertainty with Angelina is we still don’t really know her televote strength with her actual entry as she competed on the Wednesday night where other favourites were absent.

Annalisa: The pre-live favourite Annalisa has the entry that has performed most consistently across streaming platforms and stats. “Sinceramente” sits at #1 on Amazon, #1 on the radio airplay charts, #1 on Itunes, #2 on Youtube, #3 on Spotify and Apple Music. Despite some fantastic live performances and over-performing yesterday relative to stats, it feels like Angelina’s momentum has thwarted Annalisa’s chances of a victory. With all things being equal, I think Annalisa would still be in contention. Instead, it seems like placing 2nd or 3rd is the best she can hope for.

Irama: A Lewis Capaldi like ballad that might have been a serious contender in any other year. Irama has a motivated fanbase that has proven it will pick up the phone for him, as he placed 2nd on Wednesday night beating acts like Annalisa, Loredana and Mahmood. Considering tonight is 100% televote this should be enough for him to make the top 5.

The 5th superfinal spot seems to be between Ghali, Mahmood and Loredana. Ghali will be ahead at the start of tonight when Amadeus reveals the combined ranking. Ghali has benefited from the Wednesday/Thursday split, where he placed 2nd on the Thursday night and a top 5 finish on covers night. Considering Geolier likely took a large % of points on Tuesday, Ghali should be well ahead of the Tuesday night participants. Mahmood is the act who has gained the most momentum on streaming platforms across the week and now charting at #2 on Spotify Italy chart and #41 on the global chart. On the other hand, Loredana seems to have lost momentum. It’s a hard one to predict but I think the more casual viewers tuning in on Saturday night plus good running order slot could be enough to push Mahmood’s hit song through.

Prediction:

This is the toughest Sanremo to predict in years and even small things like the 5th superfinalist could be enough to change the outcome. I think the backlash from yesterday’s result will be enough to give Angelina the victory. The show will open with Amadeus revealing the current top 30 combined ranking. Angelina in number 2 behind Geolier should act as a signal to jurors on who to line up behind and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Angelina receive around 55% of the press jury vote. It’s important to note that in the superfinal jurors have much more power as they must vote for only ONE act. Whilst it might be difficult for jurors to tactically vote for ONE act they can ensure they do not vote for Geolier. This prevented Ultimo from winning in 2019 and the sentiment towards Geolier feels even more negative than it was towards Ultimo. I think his jury support will be limited to those jurors from his region, and for the radio jury this is limited to around 10% of the juror pool due to regional weighting. Moreover, acts who have a big fan base have usually underperformed in superfinals as the vote is only open for around 15 mins so they don’t have as long to mobilise their fans. The most recent example of this is Fedez in 2021. Looking at the rest of the podium, Geolier’s large televote % should increase the relevance of the radio and press jury even more. This looks to benefit Annalisa who should still be on course to perform well across all 3 voting sections. In terms of my own book I started the week with Annalisa as my biggest green but have now switched to backing Angelina, covering Geolier too.

1. Angelina
2. Geolier
3. Annalisa
4. Irama
5. Mahmood

Recommended bets:

Back Angelina to win Sanremo 2024 @2.24 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Annalisa Top 3 @1.85 (Bet365)

After 3 weeks of MGP heat we have our first Super Saturday of the season. Let’s take a look at the competitions tonight.

Melodifestivalen

Melfest has by far the most exciting betting market out of all the events tonight. The fight for the 2nd qualification spot seems wide open between a few contenders.

Adam Woods has a standard uptempo number, which sounds like it belongs in Danny Saucedo’s 2010s catalogue, to open the show. He has a cool staging concept. However, the song is quite vocally demanding and Adam’s voice has been quite shaky at a few rehearsals. Nevertheless, this is an entry which benefits from the app and age group system. I can imagine most viewers will be giving this 3/4 app hearts and being universally liked across all age groups. Yet, I think it’s a bit of an uphill climb to grab the 12s and 10s that are needed for the last DTF spot.

Samir and Viktor are making their return to the Mello stage after a long break, with a performance that is almost like a parody of themselves. Their vocals have been pretty poor over the last few days, but the extent to which vocals really matter at Mello is limited. However, they do have a fanbase which keeps them in top 4 contention.

Elisa is bringing a classic schlager entry that so many Mello fans crave. This is a fun number that will be helped by the age group system. She should be scoring 10s and 12s with the older groups and the phone vote. It’s very unlikely the kiddies will get behind this one but she might just scrape enough points for top 4.

Lisa Ajax returns as a soloist with a classic 2016 Zara Larsson heartbreak pop ballad. This is well performed with some excellent vocals on display. The theatrical staging is something we’ve all seen before. More importantly, Lisa’s postcard mentions her pregnancy numerous times and there could be some “sympathy” effect with viewers. She exceeded expectations in the audience poll, where she was just 3 votes behind Samir and Viktor who performed twice. I think older viewers will like this well performed number and Lisa still has a young fanbase behind her.

Smash Into Pieces should be easily winning this heat, but in terms of winning everything I think they’re out of contention. “Hear them calling” is less catchier than “Six Feet Under”, but their staging has elevated somewhat.

Recommended bet:

Back Lisa Ajax DTF @2.55 (Unibet)

Back Elisa to Run Off @1.9 (Unibet)

Benidorm Fest:

The Benidorm Fest voting system essentially gives the winner away. It’s hard to see what could stop St Pedro who scored 94 out of a maximum 96 points with the jury. Nebulossa were the other semi winner but I don’t really see them posing a serious challenge, I think the jury overmarked them in a semi final context to reward their boldness and fun performance. I have Jorge down as the televote and demoscopic jury winner. He is gaining some momentum, currently trending very highly on the Youtube charts. It’s possible that the jury could feel some pressure to increase their scores for him, but audience backlash hasn’t stopped them from burying favourites in the past. Angy could also improve on her semi final placing, she is one of the most known performers and could resonate more with the casual Saturday night audience.

Melodi Grand Prix:

Another National Final where we have a short priced favourite. Before the running order reveal, I leaned towards Keiino taking the win. Their SF performance was fun but also professional. Some on Twitter have said they expect the jury to bury Keiino but I don’t expect this to happen. There will be people in the “Eurovision bubble” on the jury and the vocal performance by Alexandra is very strong. However, NRK have made their intentions clear and probably want to send something that could get some jury points this year. Erika Norwich and Super Rob are the most streamed act this year, but their momentum has stalled after failing to make the top 30 on Spotify. The 1 vote per user limit means there could be some vote split with the uptempos hurting both Keiino and Erika Norwich. Gåte should definitely be the favourites but I think the margin will be closer than expected.

Prediction:

1. Gåte
2. KEiiNO
3. Dag Erik and Anne

Vidbir:

Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil should be running away with this one, but Vidbir jurys can throw a spanner in the works sometimes. This is one to watch for the outright market. I have been sceptical about how the duo will work live, so it’s one to watch. Keep an eye out on the televote margin too, a huge victory against the Melovin fan girls will signal that Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil have potential to rack up a huge televote at ESC by connecting with the diaspora.

Malta Song Contest

The Maltese “establishment” seem to have lined up behind Matt Blxck, although I have seen the girl group win some local polls. I can see “Banana” qualifying at ESC but it needs huge and fun staging!

After 2 years of successfully tipping the Eurosong winner, let’s take a look at the contenders tonight and see if I can make it a hat-trick!

Isabella Kearney – Let Me Be The Fire: Australian-Irish songwriter Isabella Kearney is making her artist debut with pop banger “Let Me Be The Fire”, produced by Danish legend, Cutfather. Isabella’s number, whilst well produced, falls just a little bit too flat for me. I’m not totally convinced she has enough experience to pull it off live too, we’ve seen songwriters struggle to transition to singer on the ESC stage many a time. I’m expecting top 3 with the international jury for this one, but having little impact with the remaining voting sections.

Bambie Thug – Doomsday Blues: Bambie Thug will be taking viewers on a journey with Doomsday Blues being a cacophonous mix of genres. Ireland would be taking a welcomed bold risk sending this. Despite Eurosong’s slightly upgraded stage this year, I struggle to see this working live as a cohesive package. Late Late Show viewers are likely to be perplexed by Bambie’s stage show. Moreover, seeing how the national jury has voted over the last 2 years makes me doubtful about how they’ll perceive this number.

JyellowL – Judas: JyellowL’s entry has a very pleasant melody and I enjoy the chorus. However, it feels too chill to have any real impact. He also plans to have dancers as part of his staging, which I can’t see working well. A likely last place, considering the taste of the Late Late Show viewers.

Ailsha – Go Tobann: The big fan favourite Ailsha is attempting to bring Irish back to the Eurovision Song Contest with her noisy number. “Go Tobann” has been a huge hit with international fans who are looking for Ireland to send something culturally relevant. This is another one which I worry may go down like a lead balloon on the small Eurosong stage. It also feels very polarising which could lead to some jurors marking it down. I do think Ailsha has a path to win Eurosong, but it’s very much dependent on whether she can convey the message to viewers clearly. I think with the limited stage resources she has it’s more likely that she’ll struggle to get this message out, however I don’t rule out her snagging the televote 12 points.

Next-in-Line – “Love Like Us”: Louis Walsh’s new boyband are aiming to fulfil the prophecy of their band name with a very Scandi inspired boyband number. There has been significant debate about the threat these boys pose to the rest of the contenders, and their price has shortened in the last few days. They have a strong USP in this female dominated lineup and on paper seem like they will have a televote pull at least. Nevertheless, just looking cute isn’t enough to win (Brendan Murray placing last in 2022) and neither is a Louis Walsh connection (Eoghan Quinn’s 2014 loss). The boys have previously sang on the Late Late Show and there was a lot left to be desired from their performance. I suspect the panellists will be on hand to provide some vote de-motivating comments, focusing on how Ireland sent a boyband last year and that didn’t exactly go well. Yet, I can’t rule out a Joe and Jake inspired upset because of the strong USP!

Erica- Cody – Love Me Like I Do: Erica Cody will attempt to make history tonight by becoming the first woman of colour to represent Ireland at ESC. Erica is by far the most established act in this lineup, but not to the same extent as Wild Youth. She is a familiar face to RTE viewers, having been a finalist of Dancing With The Stars and a host of a RTE music show. “Love Me Like I Do” has had extensive airplay in Ireland after Erica signed a record deal with Universal Music a few weeks ago. Since then, a lot of money has gone behind this act with Erica hiring the biggest creative director company in Ireland and undergoing a significant promo campaign this week. Erica is an experienced performer and should put on a good show that elevates this song. The running order also points towards her being RTE’s chosen one but the small stage will limit how much she can do.

I have been strongly backing Erica-Cody from 3.5 into 1.91. I am confident that Erica is the act who can score highly across all 3 voting sections. However, current odds don’t seem appealing with narrows paths to victory existing for NIL and Ailsha.

Already tipped:

Back Erica-Cody to win Eurosong 2024 @ 1.91 (Bet365)

The 2024 Eurovision national final season kicks off tonight in Marienlyst with the first semi final of Melodi Grand Prix. Let’s take a look at the contenders:

1. Mathilde SPZ feat. Chris Archer and Slam Dunk – “Woman Show”: An energetic eurodance party anthem that wouldn’t feel out of place at Melodifestivalen. I imagine this will be given plenty of staging as it is has the task of setting the scene for the rest of the MGP season. The group have already hinted that will be some never seen before staging, which usually means it’ll either be a big success or go down like a lead balloon. The danger with this entry is that the staging could go become too messy if they throw the kitchen sink at it. Striking the balance between slick and fun will be key to their success. I’m leaning towards this being a qualifier, I think this anthem will go down well with a Nordic audience who usually do vote for acts like this in a heat.
2. Frederik Halland – “Stranded“: The only male ballad in this year’s MGP, so it does have a strong USP. Male ballads have performed well in the past at MGP with NorthKid and Atle Petterson placing in the top 3 over the last 2 years, however these acts had a much bigger fanbase. Compared to these entries, I think “Stranded” lands on the “too boring” side of the scale. However, with the right staging and camera angles this could be a danger. There is always a constituency for a young man with a heartfelt song in a show with a public vote but I think those viewers wanting something more mainstream will be voting for Margaret. Nevertheless, odds of 7.5 with Unibet feels too big.
3. Myra – “Heart on Fire”: There isn’t a lot to say about this one. “Heart on Fire” is a decent pop song that I think will suit the radio more than a live setting. The MGP voting system limits viewers to 1 vote per account. Will this really be the number 1 favourite for many viewers? I’m sceptical about that.
4. Gothminister – “We Come Alive”: Gothminister makes his return to the MGP stage after a 10 year break. “We Come Alive” is a gothic rock song that has a surprisingly catchy hook, which makes it a bit more accessible. With the song itself being pretty repetitive, this is a number which is going to rely on the visual to captivate the audience. Gothminister will definitely have his fans but his qualification chances will come down to whether or not this appears to be too niche.
5. Ingrid Jasmin – “Eya”: Ingrid is bringing a unique mid-tempo pop song that combines a nordic feel with mediterranean elements. “Eya” seems to be a fan favourite but I’m sceptical of how well it will fare with the Norweigan public. Songs with this mediterranean element have failed to connect with Nordic viewers in the past.There’s definitely staging potential here with a dance break written into the song, but I can also see it fall flat live. Odds of 1.44 to qualify with Unibet are certainly too short.
6. Margaret Berger – “Oblivion“: Margaret is aiming to make a return to Malmo after her 4th place finish in Eurovision 2013. “Oblivion” is an airy dark electro pop song with a very nice melody. NRK are clearly wanting Margaret in this final with this pimp slot placing. In terms of the outright market, I think Margaret is heading towards a podium finish rather than challenging for the win. I struggle to see televoters connecting with this as “Oblivion” isn’t attention grabbing and the chorus just isn’t strong enough. A very narrow path exists if the final lineup is heavily tilted towards uptempo/kitschy songs, giving Margaret a strong USP.

As mentioned, I think Ingrid’s odds are too short for a song that falls into a genre which historically has not connected with Nordic viewers. The tip this week will be going to “Woman Show.” I trust that they will get the staging right and create a great party atmosphere that viewers will love.

Recommended bet:

Back Mathilde SPZ feat. Chris Archer and Slam Dunk – “Woman Show” To Qualify @2.0 (Unibet)

Another season of Eurovision madness comes to a close tonight in Liverpool’s M&S Bank Arena. Let’s take a look at some of the markets that are on offer.

Outright market: It’s very hard to look beyond Sweden and Loreen making history tonight. Loreen is in a class of her own this year which was clearly shown in her semi final performance. The streaming data for Tattoo is unprecedented and smashing all sorts of records. It is already charting at #69 on the Spotify global top 50 chart with 1.7m streams. The only other entry to have done so before the grand final was Arcade which reached around #180. Many had expected Finland to gain momentum after Tuesday’s semi final with some suggestions he could even be market leader but that has clearly failed to come to fruition. I still expect a televote win for Finland but the data suggests the gap needed against Sweden won’t be near enough to take the victory and that’s without even taking into account how jurors should be rating Kaarija’s vocals . He follows a number of excellent vocalists (Blanca, Loreen, Albina, Marco and Alika) which exposes him even more. I’m pretty confident we will be heading off to Stockholm/Malmo next year!

Top 5: The more interesting question this year is who will complete the top 5.

Ukraine is a huge question mark this year. There are huge red flags with this package in terms of how it could connect with the public: an American sounding song, performers wearing glasses and overpowering projections. In any other year I could see this getting a bottom 5 televote score. Nevertheless, the huge diaspora means Ukraine has a large number of free points. They could get 1 or 2 token jury 12s from the Baltic nations or Poland too.

Israel has a great running order and ok-ish streaming numbers. The slick MTV award show style staging means I expect it to get a top 6 jury score. Noa was vocally good last night too. I have been a bit sceptical about Israel’s televote score. Some elements of the Israeli package come across as a bit too “try hard” whilst Chanel and Eleni were seen to be more fun. Although I think she will get a strong televote in Southern Europe and scoring very well across both constituencies.

Spain disappointed me a little bit by not improving their staging from Benidorm Fest. However, Blanca is vocally as exceptional as always and captivating. There will be an ad break after Spain and Blanca’s ending high note can create an impactful moment. I predict this will come in the jury top 3 but I have always been sceptical about the televote. I expect that Northern and Western Europe will blank this in the televote so top 5 could be just out of reach.

France’s staging comes across as static and La Zarra somewhat unconvincing. However La Zarra was at her best last night managing to hit the high note convincingly. There’s a lot of data suggesting people really like this song, although the running order may hamper the televote slightly. This is on the edge of top 5 for me.

Norway has had excellent streaming data, even beating out Finland once you exclude domestic streaming numbers. Alessandra was a bit off last night but managed to rescue the performance. I think this is one for the casuals and should be getting a very strong televote with jurors also liking the radio friendliness element of the song.

Italy‘s performance at the jury final was as excellent as ever. There were concerns Italy would be dumped early in the running order but has been given slot 11. Marco Mengoni should be in the jury top 5 with this classy number. Some have questioned Italy’s televote potential this year but I have long argued the contrary. Italy usually has a reliable televote and Mengoni is a charismatic good-looking performer that can get votes from middle aged women. I have this one making it into the top 5.

Top 10: I think the market this year is pretty accurate on the top 10.

During the rehearsal period I had been laying Austria for top 10. The staging concept isn’t crazy enough to light up the televote but also not jury friendly enough to score highly there. The #1 slot hampers its score even more as it is quite reliant on televote.

Belgium is one which seems to have gone really down well with Western Europe and the middle aged demographic that enjoys 90s style music. It’s very well sung too and the Eurojury score suggests to me that there is potential for this to get a decent jury score. I have this one in my top 10.

Croatia has been the hot topic of conversation for many after their semi final performance. They have done very well with Youtube views, although much of their traffic is concentrated in the Balkan region. I can see this getting a Konstrakta style result by dominating the region’s televote and getting votes from casuals who perceive the contest to be crazy. 180-200 televote points could be enough for top 10.

Armenia is the odds on top 10 that I could see miss out. Whilst it’s a personal favourite of mine I can see it getting lost in a 26 song lineup. There are other big jury hitters and it feels a bit too anonymous to get a significant televote.

Top 15: Lithuania‘s odds for top 15 seem a bit too long for me. Monika’s entry is the only ballad in the 2nd half. Jurors should be liking this and Lithuania usually has a decent televote because of their diaspora.

Australia on the other hand seems too short to me. It doesn’t really have a great running order. Jurors may like that it’s competent but televoters have much more to turn to.

Slovenia doesn’t really have the best stats either and I could see this just missing out with Croatia eating up the balkan vote.

Last Place: The UK’s Mae Muller was much better last night in front of a roaring crowd. The UK has some of the strongest visuals this year but the vocals do sound empty and makes the song loose some oomph. I think this should get enough points to avoid last. Portugal is my tip for last place. Again there’s not a lot for jurors to like here and a poor running order means they get very lost. I can only really see France, Switzerland and Spain giving this televote points.

Good luck to everyone tonight and here are my final prediction and tips:

1. Sweden
2. Finland
3. Israel
4. Italy
5. Norway

6-10: Ukraine, France, Spain, Croatia and Belgium

Recommended tips:

Back Italy Top 5 @ 2.75 (Boyle Sports)

Back Italy Top Big 5 @ 3.25 (888 Sport)

Back Portugal Last Place @ 5.0 (Unibet)

Lay Australia Top 15 @ 1.8 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Lithuania Top 15 @ 3.6 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Croatia to beat Austria @1.83 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Back Ukraine for Ireland televote 12 points @2.38 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Back Belgium to beat Armenia @2.0 (Bet365)

Back Armenia to NOT BE IN TOP 10 @2.15 (Unibet)

Back Ukraine Over 0.5 Jury 12s @2.0 (Bet365)

Back Sweden, Finland, Israel, Norway, Italy and Croatia top 10 finish @ 4.07 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Back Sweden to Win, Finland Top 3, Israel Top 5, Norway & France Top 10 @5.0 (StarSports)

After a 10/10 prediction on Tuesday night the pressure is on for one of the most unpredictable semi finals in recent memory that will test the true strength of diaspora & bloc voting. Let’s take a look at the contenders.

Safe Qualifiers:

Austria have definitely improved with a crowd in their presence. I am still really unsure about the concept they have gone for. They are definitely aiming for the jury vote by toning down the novelty aspect although I think there’s only so far they can reach with the jury side of the scoreboard. Vocally they are fine but the operatic part remains a bit weak. It is still good enough to sail through and challenge for the semi win but I am of the view that a top 10 placing in the final now looks unlikely.

Australia have the pimp slot which alone is enough to qualify in this semi. They are bringing the energy but I am slightly underwhelmed. Some have said this can win the semi but I have doubts about how voteable the band is and how well the genre can travel. The entry works well with a crowd and combined with the running order should be enough for top 3 in this semi.

Armenia are bringing some of the best camerawork we have seen at the contest this year. There are differing views about the newly added dance break but I think it fits with the package. Brunette is vocally excellent and captivating as a performer. The package as a whole creates a really dreamy pleasant atmosphere. In the final juries will eat this up and I am now expecting a top 10 placing. I do think they may miss out on top 3 here because of the running order.

Cyprus have brought a very competent and slick package to the contest this year. Andrew Lambrou’s vocals are good although he is supported by heavy pre-recorded backing vocals at times. I am quite underwhelmed by the staging as it comes across as very basic to me. There is no big “wow” moment, which I was expecting. There were hopes that this could win the semi but I have been laying it for top 3.

Slovenia is an entry which I can see score well across East and West particularly with younger voters. They don’t really have any staging but the band doesn’t require any with their charisma. I thought their performance at the jury show was a bit underwhelming and lacked some energy. I expect that when it matters they will deliver. I think if they deliver on the night this can make the top 3 by scoring well across all regions.

Lithuania is pretty much a copy and paste of the national selection staging with some new LED content elevating the package. Monika and her backing singers are charismatic and vocally excellent as ever. The entry as a whole is very feel good. A good running order and diaspora allies means this will sail through to the final. This does have the potential to surprise and do better than expected.

Belgium really excelled in front of a crowd. Just as I predicted the Brits went wild for this. It is very fun and after a run of somewhat dreary songs Gustaph really gets the party going. I imagine this will be a favourite of the middle aged demographic. Definitely one that will be sailing through.

Poland started the season being an outside shot for qualification. Blanka’s national selection performance was poor. However, there has been a significant improvement since then. She has managed to improve her vocal and the team has ensured there is a sufficient backing vocal. It is clear that the TVP staging director is trying to make the performance a meme with some of the visual effects and TikTok views show the strategy is working.

Borderline contenders:

Georgia has been drifting in recent days and now is at a price of 1.34 to qualify. Previously I have tweeted that I thought the price of 1.2 was too short. Iru is an excellent vocalist but the main issue is the song. The lyrics are essentially a load of nonsense making the song a “wall of noise” essentially. The staging is also a bit static but does have some good moments. Ultimately in a weak semi I think this is competent enough to make it to the final with the help of a few friends.

Denmark was a country that I thought had potential when pictures of rehearsals were first released. The staging concept itself is cute and reminds me of Armenia 2022. Reiley’s vocal is pretty poor at times although I don’t think it’s as bad as others have stated. Unfortunately, I think this is just too beige and anonymous to stand out from slot 1. It also relies heavily on a teenage girl vote which I think will go for Slovenia instead.

Estonia is an entry which I had as a likely NQ pre-rehearsal but the faltering of others has firmly put it back into contention. The staging has been elevated since Eesti Laul with some really nice LED content. Alika is vocally excellent as ever but has added in some jerky movements in the song which I think is not needed. This is competent enough to qualify although I think from slot 4 it will be forgotten about by the end. Those seeking something competent and accessible may turn to stronger packages from Armenia, Cyprus and Lithuania. Female ballads also have a relatively poor televote record at Eurovision. I’m still keeping this one out of my 10.

Greece seemed to be a sure qualifier before rehearsals started with a great running order and a plentiful number of allies to support it. However since the first rehearsal things seemed to unravel. His 1st rehearsal in full was leaked with a barrage of criticism ensuing from both eurofans and Greek media. However at last nights evening preview show Victor turned it around. Vocally he was good and performed the song well. He does come across as nervous but I think this plays into his hands. Many viewers will admire Victor for going out on stage at the young age of 16 and visible nerves could strengthen this feeling, something which happened with Blanche in 2017 (i’m not comparing the songs at all). Only a fool would rule out Greece in contention with the amount of points they start out with.

Albania is one which has really improved during the rehearsal period. Sacha Jean Baptise’s team has done a good job with making the entry look good on camera. Albina is an excellent vocalist. The first minute of the song appears to be a bit too dark but the instrumental break is very fun. The last 2 minutes comes across as wholesome too and the family aspect may play well with older viewers. The main issue with this country’s qualification prospects is the lack of diaspora countries in this semi. This is an entry which really only appeals to diaspora and Albania is separated from their closest allies (Italy, Switzerland and Croatia). One point in Albania’s favour is the introduction of rest of the world voting. The group are from Kosovo and I believe the semi final is being aired live there. I anticipate they will get the 12 points from this vote which could push them over the line.

I am very confident about the 8 safe qualifiers but the final 2 are ones which I am linger over. It will likely come down to the performances on the night but my final 10 are:

Austria, Armenia, Cyprus, Lithuania, Belgium, Slovenia, Poland, Australia, Georgia and Greece

Recommended tips:

Back Denmark to non-qualify @ 1.83 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Back Romania, San Marino, Iceland and Denmark to non-qualify @ 2.28 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Back Romania, San Marino, Iceland, Denmark and Estonia to non-qualify @4.56

Back Slovenia top 3 @ 3.3 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Austria, Australia, Cyprus, Lithuania, Belgium, Slovenia, Poland and Armenia to Qualify @1.84 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Eurovision week kicks off tonight in Liverpool with the 1st Semi Final. Having watched Monday’s evening preview show via a feed let’s take a look at the runners and riders.

Safe Qualifiers:

Finland brought the house down last night and won the new “Eurovision Audience Poll” in a landslide. The staging of the first half of the song has definitely been elevated since UMK. Being placed in the pimp slot also cements itself as the frontrunner for the semi win. In terms of whether it can win the final, I argue that the new performance is lowering Finland’s jury potential. The aggression has been amped up a bit since UMK. Kaarija’s vocal also sounds really exposed particularly in the final half of the song even with the aid of a strong backing vocal. The staging of the second half feels like it has become too kitschy. I struggle to see how this can get the jury score needed to push it over the line for the Eurovision final win.

Sweden have essentially copy and pasted the Mello staging. Whilst there were concerns about how this would work with the smaller box, the feel of the performance is very similar to Mello. In fact I would argue that the bridge is stronger in the ESC performance. Loreen’s vocals were shaky in the 1st dress rehearsal but in front of a crowd she delivered with emotion. This is the clear front runner to win the crystal microphone with challengers so far having failed to pose a threat. I have both Finland and Sweden green in my SF1 winner book just in case Finland comes across as too much for first time viewers.

Norway was pretty much a copy and paste of MGP with some better lighting. Alessandra delivered on the whistle note too. Israel was the first wow moment of the night in my opinion. Noa Kirel was vocally fine but the package as a whole felt like a world class MTV performance. Czechia have faced a barrage of criticism throughout the pre party circuit but when it matters they have delivered. They have gone down the feminist themed staging route which creates a dystopian/Handmaid’s Tale vibe and a defiant feeling is exuded by the performers. This is back in contention for top 10 and with a nice draw they could achieve a Russian Woman style result.

Likely Qualifiers:

Moldova is one performance that didn’t meet my expectations. The staging seemed fine but underwhelming at the same time. It came across as too dark to me when it should really be fun. It’s noticeable that the audience was quite muted. It performed poorly with the Eurovision Audience Poll, going against my expectations as this is an entry which I thought would go down well with UK casuals.

Serbia have definitely upgraded their staging from the national selection. The entry comes across as cool and the video game references are nice. There are definitely valid concerns that this could come across as too aggressive but I think there will be enough people who love it to pick up the phone. Serbia has enough friends and a great televote track record in semi finals, having never finished below 11th.

Borderline and the rest:

Switzerland impressed me with Remo having one of the strongest vocals. The staging is very slick, typical of Sacha Jean Baptise’s work. I am disappointed that she didn’t really focus on the theme of the song when creating the staging. There is lot for jurors to like here but the question is will televoters connect? I think in a 15 song semi final lineup being safe and accessible can help. Voters seeking something competent and safe may turn towards this especially as it comes straight after the crazy Croatia. The message of the song could also give it a televote boost. This is in my 10 but not safe.

Croatia is one which is difficult to predict. It feels very high risk high reward. It could totally fall flat with viewers and NQ or be a hit and make the top 10 of the grand final televote. I have this in my 10 because I think there will be enough people who will love it. It’s memorable and novelty but has a serious message at the same time.

Portugal is one which I was nervous about after the 2nd rehearsal clip was posted. The staging seemed bare but in full the “less is more” mantra seems to have worked. Mimicat is a good performer but at times makes aggressive facial expressions in the same vain as Lucie Jones. However, this feels quintessentially Portuguese and I think there will be enough viewers who enjoy this genre. Although, 1.45 to qualify is a bit short for me.

Netherlands has definitely improved when comparing to the pre-party performances. The staging is nice but incredibly dull. It creates a moody/funeral atmosphere which I don’t think is going to resonate well with viewers. The performers don’t have great chemistry and whilst their vocal is ok, the backing vocal in the final chorus is incredibly loud.

Malta is fun but also quite awkward/amateurish at times. It reminds me of Latvia 2022 which was also put in the dreaded slot #2. It’s enjoyable but not memorable enough in my view, although this would be my pick for a shock qualifier. Azerbaijan looks nice on screen but coming after Loreen is a difficult task. It may connect with older viewers saving it from last. Latvia’s performance was enjoyable but it’s not going to connect with televoters, which is a shame as it is a very credible entry. Ireland is my pick for last place with some nice X Factor winner staging but a poor vocal from the lead singer.

My 10 qualifiers for tonight are: Finland, Sweden, Israel, Norway, Czechia, Moldova, Serbia, Switzerland, Portugal, Croatia

Top 3 for this semi is an interesting market. I’m of the view that it’s easier for Norway to finish top 5 in the final televote than top 3 here. Only 2 entries have finished in the televote top 3 of a semi since 2013 (Alexander Rybak and The Roop). Moreover, Alessandra faces tough competition from the same region. Whilst I think Czechia is strong the package seems to me that it will fare stronger with juries. I will go for Israel to complete the top 3.

Recommended bets:

Netherlands to Not Qualify @2.0 (Betfair Sportsbook) – already tipped @2.25 (Unibet)

Netherlands, Ireland, and Latvia to Not Qualify @2.74 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Israel Top 3 in Semi Final 1 @2.46 (Betfair Exchange)

Whilst we wait for the 2023 pre-party circuit to kick off and data from Eurojury to come in let’s take a look at the runner and riders for Eurovision 2023.

Sweden: It’s no secret that I have been a big backer of Sweden from the moment I was luckily able to view the rehearsals on a Thursday early evening. I’ve already spent a lot of time talking about Sweden on Twitter but for me it’s in a league of it’s own compared to anything else this. It’s contemporary, cinematic and epic whilst filling you with emotions at the same time. Even its biggest critics would acknowledge that it is likely going to be a runaway jury winner this May.

I think that concerns about it’s televote score are over-exaggerated. This is the best package and it’s visual quality means that viewers should be rewarding this, in the same vain as Russia 2016. The song itself is on its way to becoming a big hit charting across Europe already meaning televoters will be familiar with it. In some way it follows the footsteps of Lena’s “Satellite” which already became a radio hit before the contest.

Some commentators have argued Tattoo doesn’t fit recent winners as it lacks a cultural identity. Whilst I think this is a good point, the package as a whole feels authentic and raw to me with the nomadic bridge bringing a cultural aspect to the entry. Unless another country has a “Jamala moment” during rehearsals I envisage that Loreen will be making Eurovision history.

Ukraine: With the geopolitical situation constantly changing I think it’s important to ensure that you keep Ukraine as a green in your book. Ukraine have drifted recently and that may be down to Maria Sur’s lower than expected placing at Melfest. Although I think her result was telling the context of Melfest is different to ESC of course. Even if Ukraine loses a lot of its voters from last year I think it’s pretty much guaranteed a lot of televote 12s from certain countries. Much of this is down to the huge diaspora that exists across the continent rather than a sympathy factor, which I am sure will also play a part. Another issue is that in any other year I do think Ukraine would get a good jury score. Heart of Steel is slick and contemporary which jurors will like. The closest entry to this in recent years is Belgium 2022 which placed 13th with the jury in the grand final, but Heart of Steel is a much more professional package. It is difficult to say if they can win until we get closer to May.

Finland: I imagine that Finland will be in the top 2 of the televote at the final but whether it can win will come down to the jury tally. Precedent for entries in this sort of category suggests that it probably will fall short. Cha Cha Cha is divisive and jurors won’t like the song structure. Plus during UMK he wasn’t really singing a lot of the song live. Although some jurors may reward the artistry and uniqueness of the package. Ukraine’s televote score may also prevent Finland from being able to get a high enough televote to challenge. At the moment I see this aiming for top 3 rather than a win but I am open to changing my mind after we get some Eurojury results.

Norway: Alessandra’s momentum seems to have died down a little bit with Norway being overshadowed by Sweden in terms of streaming and radio play. I still think this will do well on both sides of the scoreboard. Alessandra is a likeable performer and jurors should reward the song’s radio friendliness. The package’s nordic/viking identity should attract televoters too. Top 10 and can achieve 4th-5th as a ceiling.

Israel: I have followed Noa Kirel’s career over the last 6 years but this song just doesn’t do it for me. The production feels messy with the entry feeling like 5 songs in 1. However it has clearly been written for a stage show , particularly the last 30 seconds. Kirel’s team are clearly throwing a lot of money at this and I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a price crash (Cyprus 2018, Azerbaijan 2019) during the rehearsals. Televoters across the east and west will like this I imagine. I’m less confident about the jury but a slick stage show may elevate this allowing it to reach an Eleni jury style placing (7th). Overall, 5th isn’t out of reach.

Czechia: I have been very optimistic about Czechia this year. When Vesna dropped their music video I tipped this at 101.0 (each way) and it shortened to 11.5. After the live performance it drifted out but has shortened a little bit again. My Sister’s Crown has: an impactful chorus, a powerful message, a strong visual aesthetic and charismatic performers. If they can get the staging right I think this will score well with both jurors and televote. The package has an authentic regional identity but at the same time is accessible to all. This entry will live or die by the staging and if they get it right, this could be the one where we see a “Jamala moment’ in rehearsals but could crash and burn otherwise.

UK: I was very critical about the UK after Mae Muller’s release but I have softened my stance a bit. This is a modern, radio friendly and fun song but nothing special really. The UK couldn’t have asked for a better draw with the host entry closing the show. I imagine the audience will lift the roof off the arena. Jurors should reward this package if Mae Muller performs it well because of it being contemporary. The hiring of one of Chanel’s dancers as a choreographer does suggest they have a good staging plan. I am more concerned about the televote as it fights against Norway and Israel in the same category but the running order should help it in this area. 13th-18th is my current estimate.

Spain: Blanca Paloma is arguably one of the strongest vocalists this year. Jurors should love the: vocals, authenticity of this package and excellent staging. I envisage this will be in the jury top 3 and a surprise jury win can’t be ruled out. “Voila” has been used as a reference point but I am sceptical about Eaea’s televote potential. Whilst it does have a strong national identity if feels divisive and possibly inaccessible. For example, I can’t really see this scoring televote points in the Nordic region. 6th-10th would be my guess here.

Austria: When WTHIE was released I said this could be the “fanwank” of the season. Whilst there is the potential for this to happen I am much more positive now. WTHIE is a genius concept and an addictive song. I imagine that casual fans will really love this. Jurors should be a lot less supportive but they could resonate with the message of the song if it comes across well and reward the artistry. However, this is an entry where staging is everything and I think it’s difficult to translate the song onto a live stage. Austria’s place on the scoreboard will come down to the staging and if done right top 10 is on the cards.

Italy: Marco Mengoni hasn’t been talked much about this season. People may be bored of this classical Italian male act we’ve been accustomed to in recent years. I still think this will score well with both jury and televote to get a low top 10 result overall.

Switzerland/Netherlands/Cyprus: In my view there’s room for at least one of these sadder songs in the top 10. I have been more optimistic than most on Cyprus. The performer is charismatic with a strong vocal and well produced song that should be loved by the jury. Switzerland too has a strong vocal and the production of the song has an Austria 2018 element to it. If it makes the final then jury top 5 is on the cards. Netherland’s potential will come down to how the pair connect and perform, which I am slightly sceptical about.

Other markets:

I’ll have an article out with qualification tips after the running order is posted, but today saw Unibet post the first SF odds of the season. Whilst not really a value bet, I see Lithuania as a safe option due to the number of allies and disapora it has. In terms of top 10 I think Czech Republic and Italy offer value bets as they are 2 entries I can see scoring good enough with both jury and televote. Moldova has brought an entry this year which is catchy, memorable and has a visual gimmick. I imagine this will get a very good televote across the continent. I have been laying France for top 10 as I think it’s unlikely we’ll see more than 2 big 5 entries in the top 10 and it probably struggles on the televote side.

Recommended bets:

Back Lithuania to Qualify @1.4 (Unibet)

Back Cyprus to Qualify @1.5 (Unibet)

Back Czech Republic Top 10 @2.06 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Italy Top 10 @2.2 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Moldova Top 10 @3.05 (Betfair Exchange)

Another season of Mello madness comes to a close tonight at Friends Arena, as 12 competitors (or 11 support acts + 1 participant as some would say) battle it out for the Mello trophy. 

There’s no doubt of course who will be crowned the winner tonight, Loreen. From the moment I watched her first rehearsal on a gloomy Thursday late afternoon I knew we had our Mello winner and the frontrunner for the ESC title. For me it’s now just a question of Loreen’s televote at Melfest. All metrics indicate she should landslide this and it will be interesting to see how close she comes to Anders Bagge and Tusse’s historic numbers. 

The fight for 2nd and 3rd is much more unpredictable. I have previously tipped Smash Into Pieces for top 3 and still recommend this. SIP have a USP and an overall strong package with their futuristic staging. Jurors should be rewarding the credibility and clean vocal from the band. Moreover, the song is accessible and palatable enough to prevent jurors from marking it down. Their Spotify numbers have been excellent, as they are the 2nd most streamed act beating acts such as Marcus & Martinus and Theoz. I am expecting the band to be 2nd-3rd in televote and 2nd-4th in jury, which should be enough for a top 3 slot. The twins slick package and modern song is almost certainly going to be rewarded by international jurors. However, I would not be surprised if they receive an underwhelming televote. Their streaming numbers have been a lot lower than expected, which was also the case for Bluffin last year that suffered an underwhelming televote too. Their support is also concentrated with the younger groups. Maria Sur has a USP being the only ballad in the final and could get a nice jury score just based off this but the unoriginality and poor lyrics could see her marked down. Televote wise her momentum has completely stalled with poor streaming numbers and the media narrative being dominated by Loreen’s return. 

Last place is a tricky market this year. Both Mariette and Paul Rey should be at the bottom of the televote with poor streaming and polling numbers to show for it. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mariette scored well with the international jury. She performs the song well and it has an anthemic/ light gospel touch that the Melfest jury has really appreciated the last few years. Paul Rey’s number too has an anthemic quality and modern production that can see it get middling scores from jurors that might be enough to push it above last. On the other hand, Tone should be down at the bottom of the juror rankings. Her streaming numbers have been very weak this year especially considering her song last year was a hit. In the first heat she almost beat JHF and friends in the audience poll but in the final she dropped to 10th. Tone is the act that I think will consistently score low across both jury and public vote.

There are a number of H2H and points markets available on Unibet that are interesting. Panetoz have been given an early slot in the running order. For an act in their genre, their streaming numbers are relatively poor and there really isn’t much for a juror to be loving here. The top 5 does look solid this year but there is probably room for an upset. Kiana is one act that I see can pose a challenge. Her song is modern and the overall package is slick. Jurors will like the fact that she is so young yet able to perform very well. Her streaming numbers have improved a lot too suggesting momentum with the public. JHF will likely do well on the televote because of his personal vote but the messiness of the visual package could see it pushed down by jurors and narrowly miss out on the top 5. 

Recommended bets:

Back Smash into Pieces Top 3 @ 1.8 (Unibet)

Back Smash into Pieces Top 2 @ 4.0 (Unibet)

Back Tone Sekelius Last Place @ 2.75 (Unibet)

Back Panetoz Under 53.5 points @2.65 (Unibet)

Back Maria Sur Under 110.5 Points @1.42 (Unibet)

Back Kiana Top 5 @6.0 (Unibet)

This year’s Melodifestivalen heats come to a close in Malmo arena, the place which hosted Eurovision 10 years ago. Let’s take a look at the final 7 contenders for 2023. 

1. Kiana – “Where Did You Go”: This is a very modern uptempo number being performed by a likeable 15 year old debutant. It has a British sound very reminiscent of Becky Hill’s hits. I enjoy the staging of this. The pink colours and graphics stand out and Kiana even borrows an element of staging from Alessandra’s “Queen of Kings”. I imagine this will be a favourite of the younger groups and the older age groups may admire Kiana’s display of confidence at such a young age. A contender for DTF in my opinion. 
2. Signe & Hjördis – Edelweiss: This is a pleasant number but there isn’t really much more to say about this. The girls are likeable but also seem completely out of their depth. They look nervous and the package just falls flat. A contender for last.
3. Smashed Into Pieces – Six Feet Under: The band bring a pop rock number that has elements of Blind Channel but more ESC/Mello friendly. They have a futuristic staging concept and perform this very well bringing energy to the stage. The package as a whole is palatable and accessible enough to score well across all age groups. Another contender for DTF.
4. Mariette – One Day: Mariette returns with a different style of song to her previous entries. “One Day” is an uplifting anthemic song with a Disney like quality to it. It is a very positive number and Mariette performs this very well. The staging creates a feeling of warmth. She should be scoring highly with the older groups tonight, but the question is can this get enough support from the younger categories to pull her across the line? 
5. Emil Henrohn – Mera mera mera: This is a party anthem and I am sure it will be a big hit in Sweden for the following weeks to come. My biggest issue here is with the performer. Emil comes across as amateurish and not really ready for the stage. The performance should feel lively but comes across as static. However, watching the dress rehearsal showed that he has a lot of fans especially those in the younger groups. He may sneak into the top 4. 
6. Axel Schylström – Gorgeous: Axel has a power ballad that reminds me a lot of John Lundvik’s “My Turn.” He has an excellent vocal and is joined by a gospel like choir in the final minute of the song. Axel is singing about his accident and both the staging and his postcard also convey the message. Axel conveys his emotion really well. Earlier in the week I thought this could be a surprise contender for DTF, knowing how well Swedes react to a package with a narrative. However, the song itself doesn’t seem strong enough. Moreover, the audience poll suggests that the audience just isn’t connecting with this one. 
7. Loreen – Tattoo: All accredited media were tantalisingly sat waiting for this rehearsal to be uploaded on Thursday early evening and Loreen truly delivered. “Tattoo” is modern, unique and emotional. It has elements of Euphoria combined with her recent single “Neon Lights” and verses that are influenced by ABBA. The stage show is captivating and it makes you feel like you’re watching a blockbuster film. The last minute is very powerful and grips you as Loreen belts out letting out her emotions. This is a clear frontrunner to win Melodifestivalen and yes the frontrunner to win Eurovision 2023 as of now. There are of course some things I have concerns about. Loreen isn’t really connecting with the camera for the majority of the song, but this was the case for Euphoria too. The performance as a whole is also very intense. The last minute in particular can feel overwhelming. However, the audience poll was a surprise for me. It shows that this isn’t too much for Swedes and is connecting, which bodes well for both it’s Melfest and ESC chances. 

Recommended bets:

Back Smash into Pieces to DTF @ 2.3 (Unibet)

Back Signe & Hjordis last place @ 1.55 (Unibet)

Back Sweden to win Eurovision 2023 @ 2.75 (Betfair Sports)