Last week saw housewife favourite Tom Walker eliminated after falling into the dance off with Rhys Stephenson. Rhys was deservedly saved after improving from his original performance, where he had made a few mistakes.

It looks like last week was a close run for John, with social media stats suggesting it was very close between him and Tom to enter the dance off. Sunday night’s results show had seen twitter ablaze with many furious at Dan surviving yet again.

This week sees Dan taking on the rumba, which some have called the “dance of death.” Males in particular have struggled with the rumba in recent years. In the last 3 series the average lowest score for the rumba is a measly 19/40. Dan also enjoyed the pimp slot, so it is possible he could get a very early slot this week. Plus, Craig is likely to return this week and he has consistently scored Dan very low dishing out a 4, 5 and 6 in the last 3 weeks. It does look like at this stage of the game the odds are very much stacked against Dan’s continued defiance.

Tilly scored a perfect 40 last week, leading to a swathe of backlash from Twitter fans. This week she has been lumbered with a samba. Like the rumba this has historically been a difficult low scoring dance. Tilly has struggled when tasked with faster dances, as we have seen in week 7 and 8 where she was relegated to the dance off. I envisage this trend continuing and expect Tilly to enter the danger zone once more. She is likely to score more than Dan, however her public vote base is much lower and volatile.

Dance off survivor, Rhys, is set to take on the waltz. This is another difficult dance but Rhys has scored well with ballroom dances, which he has shown to be much more comfortable with. Plus he is likely to receive a sympathy bounce after hitting the bottom 2 last week. However, Rhys probably has the weakest public vote base of all contestants remaining and has relied on the judge’s points saving him from the dance off. He cannot be ruled out from hitting the dance off again.

AJ, John and Rose will almost certainly dominate the scoreboard this week. AJ will have the “Couple’s Choice” dancing to Janelle Monáe’s ‘Make Me Feel’, a song choice that certainly raises some eyebrows. After what was probably a near miss from the dance off, John takes on the Argentinian Tango which looks set to be a surefire hit. John & Johannes have not had the honours of closing the show yet, so could take this on this week to set up a very high scoring mark. Huge favourite Rose will dance to the dramatic paso which should delight the public vote. If producers want to create any type of unpredictability this is probably the last week to do so, hence Rose may not score as highly.

This is an unpredictable week with the 6 contestants firmly divided into 2 tiers. Dan, Tilly and Rhys all could go. Normally we see the novelty cut at this stage of the competition. Dan will have a difficult task to escape the danger zone after being given the dance of death and an early slot looks likely. There is always the unpredictability of the British voting public though…

Recommended bets:

Back Dan Walker for Next Elimination @ 2.0 (Smarkets)

Back Tilly Ramsay for Bottom 2 (Betfair Exchange)