With the pre-party season over and data from: OGAE, Eurojury and preview shows trickling in it’s time to take a look at who is primed to take the glass trophy in May.

The front runners:

1. Italy

Based on all the information we have, Italy is the front runner to take the trophy in Turin. “Brividi” is a powerful emotional ballad by 2 engaging performers. Although there are a lot of male ballads this year, this is the clear standout with a male duo being the USP. Both performers have a strong vocal that the juries should be rewarding. Current Eurojury results suggest this on track to win or at least finish in the top 2. I am also expecting this to be in the jury top 2 in May. Furthermore, Italy has a record of a strong televote. Since 2016, Italy has never received under 200 televote points. I believe this streak will continue. Brivid has been a huge streaming success, but this is not just isolated to Italy. After their Sanremo win, the song charted in many neighbouring countries. On top of this, the OGAE poll shows that there is a clear love for this song. Most importantly, I think this is the entry that is able to score well across all regions. We can see this with the OGAE and Eurojury poll where Italy is scoring well across all sorts of countries. Some things to consider is the running order. Italy is drawn at #9. Whilst this is slightly early it is important to note Mans won from slot 10 out of 27 songs and Conchita won from slot 11 out of 26. #9 out of 25 should not be a significant barrier. Many have questioned if RAI would want to win again. Both Bologna and Milan had strong bids to host and are eager to host. It is unlikely there would be difficulties with hosting twice in a row. The global success of Maneskin is also likely going to motivate Universal Italia to put work in to replicate this with Mahmood and Blanco.

2. Ukraine

Ukraine is the current odds favourite for the win. I have previously been very sceptical of a Ukraine for various reasons. The idea of a Ukraine win is mainly based on a narrative, however past years have shown the contest does not work like this. On paper jurors should be marking down Ukraine. Shum placed 9th with jurors and that was a much stronger jury-appealing package due to Go_A’s strong vocals and artistic identity. However it hard to ignore that Ukraine will almost certainly be the televote winner. Historically, Ukraine has always been a strong televote nation and combined with the sympathy across Europe they are a shoe-in to win the televote. We may even be looking at a televote record. So it looks like it will come down to how much jury sympathy Ukraine gets. The EBU will not want Ukraine to win. Post-Euphoria they have spent a lot of time and effort into trying to rid ESC of it’s political associations. A Ukraine sympathy win would be a huge step back for the contest’s reputation across the continent. A first half draw could also see Ukraine being given the “honour” of opening. However, Ukraine has held up strong with Eurojury and the nordic preview shows so a win cannot be ruled out.

The chasing pack:

3. United Kingdom

I was initially sceptical of the UK’s chances this year but it has gone up in my estimation. Sam Ryder elevated “SPACE MAN” to new heights at LEP and EIC. He looks like he will follow the path Dami Im took where she elevated an average well produced pop song. The UK is performing very well with Eurojury and looks set to finish in the top 2. If Sam can replicated his pre-party performances I can see this in the jury top 2 alongside Italy. The televote is the biggest question mark for the UK because of it’s past history. Nevertheless, Ryder is the only contestant to have gone on a proper promo tour and he does have his 12m TikTok followers. To my suprise the UK is doing very well on the OGAE poll – a demographic which I did not expect to like the song to the extent the poll suggests. Staging is the biggest question mark for the UK and the only thing leaving me from putting the UK under the front runner section. If done well then there is a path for a British victory, but right now a top 5 result looks more likely.

4. Spain

Spain is a big standout this year, especially as the only uptempo female. Chanel is an exceptional performer and takes SloMo to a whole new level. She has been the start of the pre-party circuit leaving the audience in awe. Furthermore, Chanel is a likeable performer. The slickness of the performance is likely to appeal to juries much like Foureira and Luca Hanni. A 2nd half draw for Spain could also see it placed as a show closer. Spain would have benefitted from participating in the semi finals to gain momentum, like Fuego. However, I expect Spain’s price to crash during rehearsals as the Spanish HoD there will be even more improvements to the Benidorm Fest performance. Casual British punters will most likely love this as well – many of you will remember Barei’s price crash in 2016. All in all, I think a Luca Hanni result is looking possible for Spain this year.

5. Sweden

Sweden is sending it’s first solo female artist to the contest in 8 years with a raw authentic ballad, a marked departure from recent years. After Cornelia’s win Sweden shortened to around 6s. I have grown increasingly sceptical of a Swedish in recent weeks. Cornelia’s vocals have been shaky on the pre-party circuit. Whilst the raspy voice provides an authentic feeling, jurors may mark this down. Sweden is now doing decently well with Eurojury, but Sweden usually overperforms as they have a Melfest live performance advantage. “Hold me closer” is a hard first listen and I have doubts over whether this can connect well across the whole continent in terms of televote. OGAE data shows Sweden is performing less well in the east and it is interesting that there were no eastern jurors at Mello. However, a top 5 finish can’t be ruled out if Sweden gets a 2nd half draw and momentum from the SF.

6. Poland

Ochman has been another star of the pre-party circuit impressing many with his superb vocal consistency. When released as a studio cut many predicted “River” to be a potential ESC winner. However, an underwhelming NF performance caused a price drift. Though Ochman was ill during this and staging changes have been promised. The case for Poland top 5 simply comes down to: jurors being impressed by Ochman’s voice + the Polish diaspora being awakened from their slumber. I agree that Poland is likely to get a very good televote, especially as Ochman is a protege of Spzak. Poland should also be right up there with the jury because of his voice. However, Poland has performed poorly with Eurojury. Some jurors may mark down the song because of it’s disjointedness and how jarring it can be. We also know that jurors aren’t huge fans of an operatic voice (Italy 2015, Estonia 2018). Televote wise, Ochman lacks charisma and struggles to connect with the camera as he closes his eyes throughout his performances. Nevertheless, Poland does have the ability to finish top 6 in both jury and televote.

Best of the rest

Greece – The act which we have the least information about. Whilst the last minute of the song is strong and impactful, the first minute lacks a punch. However, this will probably be up there with the juries. Greece will be one of the most awaited rehearsals with a good stage show promised from Fokas and co. This is probably aiming for lower top 10.

Netherlands – The Common Linnets meets Blanche with this moody country twinged number.The Netherlands has performed exceptionally well with the Nordic preview shows and should be the front runner to win the jury in SF1. I have concerns with how accessible this will be with the public. S10 isn’t the most engaging performer and this moody number may fail to connect with the public. The laser show has been ditched – and I was a big fan of that. This could narrowly miss out on top 10

Australia – This is performing well with EJ and I expect it to do decent enough with the jury. However they should be marking Italy and the UK ahead of this in the same genre. I have major concerns with the televote for this. Sheldon’s mask is a huge barrier to connecting with the public + his staging was too dark and depressing.

Norway – This should be a solid top 10. Casual fans will love it. Behind the gimmick, it is a well produced pop song so the jurors should show it enough love.

Serbia – Serbia is in a battle for qualification with most of it’s allies in SF1. Should it make it through, it is a possible top 10. The song has been a huge hit in the balkan region and regional jurors should like the message. The numbers will be tight though.

Finland – The Rasmus are still popular in much of Eastern Europe. Combined with support from the Nordic region this could be enough for a left hand side finish. Vocals are a big concern here though.

Overall:

Based on the data this year’s contest looks like a 2 horse race between Italy and Ukraine. I am giving the edge to Italy here, based on jurors and the EBU coming to their senses about a Ukraine win. We must wait for rehearsals to see if a contender from the chasing pack can pose a threat.

Recommended bets:

Back Italy to win Eurovision 2022 @ 5.3 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Spain to win Eurovision 2022 @ 25 (Betfair Exchange) – Price crash possible so this can be laid off during rehearsal week

Back Spain to finish Top 10 @ 1.65 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Poland to finish Top 10 @ 1.6 (Betfair Exchange)