The film season draws to a close at tonight’s Academy Award. I’ll be providing a run down of the categories I think are worth investing in.

Best Picture:

This has been a chaotic category this season with The Power of The Dog losing it’s favourite status after a surge in momentum for CODA. Stats wise this would be an easy win for TPOTD but the picture is much more complicated. The voting system (ranked choice voting) makes this interesting. CODA beat TPOD at the PGAs – the only Oscar precursor that uses the same voting system. TPOTD seems to be following the path of “Roma” which was also seen as polarising and too artistic for someone. This voting system rewards candidates that have broad appeal and that can pick up #2s and #3s. Furthermore, the CODA actors are much loved in USA with their recent invitation to the White House a latest example. The momentum is clearly with CODA here but it is a tight race pitting head against heart.

Recommended bet:

Back CODA to win Best Picture @ 1.83 (Bet365)

Best Actress:

This is another category where there has been many ups and downs over the course of the season and a very open race. Chastain has settled with the favourite status and precursors would suggest she takes the award. However, the anonymous ballots publish forecast a landslide win for Cruz. This would be an unprecedented win defying all the rules. Nevertheless, Cruz’s movie is by far the best of the nominated and she offered a classy performance. The growing number of international voters in the academy should also provide a significant boost for Cruz. I see Cruz following the path of Hopkins last year and causing an upset.

Back Cruz to win Best Actress @ 4.2 (Smarkets)

Some safer bets I recommend:

Back CODA to win Best Adapted Screenplay @ 1.66 (Smarkets)– a split in the vote of the more artistic darker films should see a victory for CODA here.

Back No Time to Die for Best Original Song @ 1.5 (Betfair) – This is a very good song and follows the trend of previous category winners opting for ballads.

Back The Eyes of Tammy Fae for Best Makeup @ 1.5 (Mansion Bet) – there is unanimous opinion from experts that this should be a lock in and 1.5 seems too long.