Eurovision week kicks off tonight in Liverpool with the 1st Semi Final. Having watched Monday’s evening preview show via a feed let’s take a look at the runners and riders.

Safe Qualifiers:

Finland brought the house down last night and won the new “Eurovision Audience Poll” in a landslide. The staging of the first half of the song has definitely been elevated since UMK. Being placed in the pimp slot also cements itself as the frontrunner for the semi win. In terms of whether it can win the final, I argue that the new performance is lowering Finland’s jury potential. The aggression has been amped up a bit since UMK. Kaarija’s vocal also sounds really exposed particularly in the final half of the song even with the aid of a strong backing vocal. The staging of the second half feels like it has become too kitschy. I struggle to see how this can get the jury score needed to push it over the line for the Eurovision final win.

Sweden have essentially copy and pasted the Mello staging. Whilst there were concerns about how this would work with the smaller box, the feel of the performance is very similar to Mello. In fact I would argue that the bridge is stronger in the ESC performance. Loreen’s vocals were shaky in the 1st dress rehearsal but in front of a crowd she delivered with emotion. This is the clear front runner to win the crystal microphone with challengers so far having failed to pose a threat. I have both Finland and Sweden green in my SF1 winner book just in case Finland comes across as too much for first time viewers.

Norway was pretty much a copy and paste of MGP with some better lighting. Alessandra delivered on the whistle note too. Israel was the first wow moment of the night in my opinion. Noa Kirel was vocally fine but the package as a whole felt like a world class MTV performance. Czechia have faced a barrage of criticism throughout the pre party circuit but when it matters they have delivered. They have gone down the feminist themed staging route which creates a dystopian/Handmaid’s Tale vibe and a defiant feeling is exuded by the performers. This is back in contention for top 10 and with a nice draw they could achieve a Russian Woman style result.

Likely Qualifiers:

Moldova is one performance that didn’t meet my expectations. The staging seemed fine but underwhelming at the same time. It came across as too dark to me when it should really be fun. It’s noticeable that the audience was quite muted. It performed poorly with the Eurovision Audience Poll, going against my expectations as this is an entry which I thought would go down well with UK casuals.

Serbia have definitely upgraded their staging from the national selection. The entry comes across as cool and the video game references are nice. There are definitely valid concerns that this could come across as too aggressive but I think there will be enough people who love it to pick up the phone. Serbia has enough friends and a great televote track record in semi finals, having never finished below 11th.

Borderline and the rest:

Switzerland impressed me with Remo having one of the strongest vocals. The staging is very slick, typical of Sacha Jean Baptise’s work. I am disappointed that she didn’t really focus on the theme of the song when creating the staging. There is lot for jurors to like here but the question is will televoters connect? I think in a 15 song semi final lineup being safe and accessible can help. Voters seeking something competent and safe may turn towards this especially as it comes straight after the crazy Croatia. The message of the song could also give it a televote boost. This is in my 10 but not safe.

Croatia is one which is difficult to predict. It feels very high risk high reward. It could totally fall flat with viewers and NQ or be a hit and make the top 10 of the grand final televote. I have this in my 10 because I think there will be enough people who will love it. It’s memorable and novelty but has a serious message at the same time.

Portugal is one which I was nervous about after the 2nd rehearsal clip was posted. The staging seemed bare but in full the “less is more” mantra seems to have worked. Mimicat is a good performer but at times makes aggressive facial expressions in the same vain as Lucie Jones. However, this feels quintessentially Portuguese and I think there will be enough viewers who enjoy this genre. Although, 1.45 to qualify is a bit short for me.

Netherlands has definitely improved when comparing to the pre-party performances. The staging is nice but incredibly dull. It creates a moody/funeral atmosphere which I don’t think is going to resonate well with viewers. The performers don’t have great chemistry and whilst their vocal is ok, the backing vocal in the final chorus is incredibly loud.

Malta is fun but also quite awkward/amateurish at times. It reminds me of Latvia 2022 which was also put in the dreaded slot #2. It’s enjoyable but not memorable enough in my view, although this would be my pick for a shock qualifier. Azerbaijan looks nice on screen but coming after Loreen is a difficult task. It may connect with older viewers saving it from last. Latvia’s performance was enjoyable but it’s not going to connect with televoters, which is a shame as it is a very credible entry. Ireland is my pick for last place with some nice X Factor winner staging but a poor vocal from the lead singer.

My 10 qualifiers for tonight are: Finland, Sweden, Israel, Norway, Czechia, Moldova, Serbia, Switzerland, Portugal, Croatia

Top 3 for this semi is an interesting market. I’m of the view that it’s easier for Norway to finish top 5 in the final televote than top 3 here. Only 2 entries have finished in the televote top 3 of a semi since 2013 (Alexander Rybak and The Roop). Moreover, Alessandra faces tough competition from the same region. Whilst I think Czechia is strong the package seems to me that it will fare stronger with juries. I will go for Israel to complete the top 3.

Recommended bets:

Netherlands to Not Qualify @2.0 (Betfair Sportsbook) – already tipped @2.25 (Unibet)

Netherlands, Ireland, and Latvia to Not Qualify @2.74 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Israel Top 3 in Semi Final 1 @2.46 (Betfair Exchange)