Whilst we wait for the 2023 pre-party circuit to kick off and data from Eurojury to come in let’s take a look at the runner and riders for Eurovision 2023.

Sweden: It’s no secret that I have been a big backer of Sweden from the moment I was luckily able to view the rehearsals on a Thursday early evening. I’ve already spent a lot of time talking about Sweden on Twitter but for me it’s in a league of it’s own compared to anything else this. It’s contemporary, cinematic and epic whilst filling you with emotions at the same time. Even its biggest critics would acknowledge that it is likely going to be a runaway jury winner this May.

I think that concerns about it’s televote score are over-exaggerated. This is the best package and it’s visual quality means that viewers should be rewarding this, in the same vain as Russia 2016. The song itself is on its way to becoming a big hit charting across Europe already meaning televoters will be familiar with it. In some way it follows the footsteps of Lena’s “Satellite” which already became a radio hit before the contest.

Some commentators have argued Tattoo doesn’t fit recent winners as it lacks a cultural identity. Whilst I think this is a good point, the package as a whole feels authentic and raw to me with the nomadic bridge bringing a cultural aspect to the entry. Unless another country has a “Jamala moment” during rehearsals I envisage that Loreen will be making Eurovision history.

Ukraine: With the geopolitical situation constantly changing I think it’s important to ensure that you keep Ukraine as a green in your book. Ukraine have drifted recently and that may be down to Maria Sur’s lower than expected placing at Melfest. Although I think her result was telling the context of Melfest is different to ESC of course. Even if Ukraine loses a lot of its voters from last year I think it’s pretty much guaranteed a lot of televote 12s from certain countries. Much of this is down to the huge diaspora that exists across the continent rather than a sympathy factor, which I am sure will also play a part. Another issue is that in any other year I do think Ukraine would get a good jury score. Heart of Steel is slick and contemporary which jurors will like. The closest entry to this in recent years is Belgium 2022 which placed 13th with the jury in the grand final, but Heart of Steel is a much more professional package. It is difficult to say if they can win until we get closer to May.

Finland: I imagine that Finland will be in the top 2 of the televote at the final but whether it can win will come down to the jury tally. Precedent for entries in this sort of category suggests that it probably will fall short. Cha Cha Cha is divisive and jurors won’t like the song structure. Plus during UMK he wasn’t really singing a lot of the song live. Although some jurors may reward the artistry and uniqueness of the package. Ukraine’s televote score may also prevent Finland from being able to get a high enough televote to challenge. At the moment I see this aiming for top 3 rather than a win but I am open to changing my mind after we get some Eurojury results.

Norway: Alessandra’s momentum seems to have died down a little bit with Norway being overshadowed by Sweden in terms of streaming and radio play. I still think this will do well on both sides of the scoreboard. Alessandra is a likeable performer and jurors should reward the song’s radio friendliness. The package’s nordic/viking identity should attract televoters too. Top 10 and can achieve 4th-5th as a ceiling.

Israel: I have followed Noa Kirel’s career over the last 6 years but this song just doesn’t do it for me. The production feels messy with the entry feeling like 5 songs in 1. However it has clearly been written for a stage show , particularly the last 30 seconds. Kirel’s team are clearly throwing a lot of money at this and I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a price crash (Cyprus 2018, Azerbaijan 2019) during the rehearsals. Televoters across the east and west will like this I imagine. I’m less confident about the jury but a slick stage show may elevate this allowing it to reach an Eleni jury style placing (7th). Overall, 5th isn’t out of reach.

Czechia: I have been very optimistic about Czechia this year. When Vesna dropped their music video I tipped this at 101.0 (each way) and it shortened to 11.5. After the live performance it drifted out but has shortened a little bit again. My Sister’s Crown has: an impactful chorus, a powerful message, a strong visual aesthetic and charismatic performers. If they can get the staging right I think this will score well with both jurors and televote. The package has an authentic regional identity but at the same time is accessible to all. This entry will live or die by the staging and if they get it right, this could be the one where we see a “Jamala moment’ in rehearsals but could crash and burn otherwise.

UK: I was very critical about the UK after Mae Muller’s release but I have softened my stance a bit. This is a modern, radio friendly and fun song but nothing special really. The UK couldn’t have asked for a better draw with the host entry closing the show. I imagine the audience will lift the roof off the arena. Jurors should reward this package if Mae Muller performs it well because of it being contemporary. The hiring of one of Chanel’s dancers as a choreographer does suggest they have a good staging plan. I am more concerned about the televote as it fights against Norway and Israel in the same category but the running order should help it in this area. 13th-18th is my current estimate.

Spain: Blanca Paloma is arguably one of the strongest vocalists this year. Jurors should love the: vocals, authenticity of this package and excellent staging. I envisage this will be in the jury top 3 and a surprise jury win can’t be ruled out. “Voila” has been used as a reference point but I am sceptical about Eaea’s televote potential. Whilst it does have a strong national identity if feels divisive and possibly inaccessible. For example, I can’t really see this scoring televote points in the Nordic region. 6th-10th would be my guess here.

Austria: When WTHIE was released I said this could be the “fanwank” of the season. Whilst there is the potential for this to happen I am much more positive now. WTHIE is a genius concept and an addictive song. I imagine that casual fans will really love this. Jurors should be a lot less supportive but they could resonate with the message of the song if it comes across well and reward the artistry. However, this is an entry where staging is everything and I think it’s difficult to translate the song onto a live stage. Austria’s place on the scoreboard will come down to the staging and if done right top 10 is on the cards.

Italy: Marco Mengoni hasn’t been talked much about this season. People may be bored of this classical Italian male act we’ve been accustomed to in recent years. I still think this will score well with both jury and televote to get a low top 10 result overall.

Switzerland/Netherlands/Cyprus: In my view there’s room for at least one of these sadder songs in the top 10. I have been more optimistic than most on Cyprus. The performer is charismatic with a strong vocal and well produced song that should be loved by the jury. Switzerland too has a strong vocal and the production of the song has an Austria 2018 element to it. If it makes the final then jury top 5 is on the cards. Netherland’s potential will come down to how the pair connect and perform, which I am slightly sceptical about.

Other markets:

I’ll have an article out with qualification tips after the running order is posted, but today saw Unibet post the first SF odds of the season. Whilst not really a value bet, I see Lithuania as a safe option due to the number of allies and disapora it has. In terms of top 10 I think Czech Republic and Italy offer value bets as they are 2 entries I can see scoring good enough with both jury and televote. Moldova has brought an entry this year which is catchy, memorable and has a visual gimmick. I imagine this will get a very good televote across the continent. I have been laying France for top 10 as I think it’s unlikely we’ll see more than 2 big 5 entries in the top 10 and it probably struggles on the televote side.

Recommended bets:

Back Lithuania to Qualify @1.4 (Unibet)

Back Cyprus to Qualify @1.5 (Unibet)

Back Czech Republic Top 10 @2.06 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Italy Top 10 @2.2 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Moldova Top 10 @3.05 (Betfair Exchange)