After a successful week, we take another dive into previewing the national finals set to air tonight.

Croatia: Dora 2022

The quality of Dora has diminished this year compared to previous. However I still see 3 standout entries that can make the Eurovision final. Mia Negovetić returns for her 3rd year with a different style. “Forgive Me” is clearly inspired by Husvaik with some Disney elements. I think this would be a decent entry at ESC and score well. Mia should be able to deliver this well attracting both televotes and jury points. The only concern is her slot 2 in the running order, although the running order was drawn randomly this year so it’s not really a sign of producer intent.

Marko Bosnjak is a talent show winner and his all Croatian entry, “Moli za nas” is an atmospheric midtempo number. Marko should be able to attract jury support as well televotes due to his previous talent show history. However I do have some concerns about his live performance capability, looking at Youtube he has not performed on live TV for years which may make him vulnerable. Mia Dimsic is another somewhat famous entrant and she is bringing a Taylor-Swift inspired song, “Guilty Pleasure”. Mia benefits from the luck of the draw having been placed last. Again, she should be able to score well with both constituencies.

I see this final coming down to a battle of the Mia’s. Although the running order benefits Mia D, I think it will be 3rd time lucky for Mia N.

Recommended Bet:

Back Mia N to win Dora @ 2.5 (Smarkets) 3pts

Back Mia D to win Dora @ 4.5 (Smarkets) 1pt

Poland: Tu bije serce Europy

After initially opting for internal selection, Poland has switched to a national final after their internal jury struggled to make a decision.

On paper, this should be a runaway win for Ochman. He is by far the best candidate and would almost certainly secure a top 10 finish. Although, I personally find the song disjointed he would be able to secure significant jury support as well as diaspora televote.

However, Polish NFs have known to be messy. Most notably, in 2016 Poland gained favourite status on the outright yet she missed out. Daria’s “Paranoia” could be a challenger here. It is last in the running order and has been a huge hit in Poland charting at #1 and has over 10m views on Youtube. Daria also has strong ties to TVP having performed at many of their events. Nevertheless, there are concerns about Daria’s live performance. Previous performances have shown her to lack charisma and struggle vocally.

The voting system for Poland tonight hands disproportionate influence to jurors so there may be some dark arts at play. I have personally laid small stakes on Ochamn and would advise the same.

Recommended bet:

Lay Ochman to win Tu bije serce Europy @ 1.3 (Betfair Exchange) – Small stakes only!

Norway: Melodi Grand Prix 2022

Norway has the blockbuster selection for tonight after weeks of agonising heats.

Subwoolfer leads the pack as an odds on favourite. They are leading all stats clearly, they’re the only song charting in the spotify top 100 and have the most Youtube views. Questions about their identity have led them to gain press coverage. Their songs is quite well produced. I was underwhelmed slightly by their performance and felt they could have done much more, but they are deservedly favourites.

Elsie Bay was the pre-live favourite but after a disappointing first heat performance she has drifted out. However, she has stated significant changes have been made. This is by far the strongest song in the selection, but there issue is with the staging and the connection with the audience. Elsie does benefit from being last in the running order.

The other major contender I see is NorthKid. Their performance was perceived very positively on Norweigan social media. In addition to this, I believe they are the only act from North Norway. They should benefit from regional voting, particularly with the return of unlimited SMS voting. However, NorthKid face an uphill climb to make it to the gold duel from slot 2 in the running order.

The other contenders for a space in the top 4 include Maria Mohn, the last chance winner, who has a viking song and a strong narrative about her ill son. Maria should benefit from having performed on TV 3 weeks in a row now. Oda’s “Hammer of Thor” is also a well performed viking song. However, any chances of this taking the crown have been buried by her opening the show. Sofie’s, “Made of Glass” is a Morland written ballad that is well produced. Yet, I had concerns about her live performance which I perceived to be overly shouty and lacked an emotional connection. She will also suffer from Elsie Bay coming up much later.

Whilst this looks like it should be a landslide win for Subwoolfer, there are concerns with how they could do in a duel. The extent to which there is an anti-vote in Norway for them is unknown. If they face NorthKid in the gold duel, there is a strong chance they lose but I can see them easily beating off Elsie Bay.

Recommended bet:
Back Subwoolfer to win MGP @ 1.65 (Bettson) 3pts

Back NorthKid to win MGP @ 11 (Unibet) 1 pt