A chaotic Eurovision season comes to an end tonight in Turin, Italy. Let’s take a look at the contenders and how I expect them to fare.

Ukraine: Is this going to win? Probably. The EBU have decided to be fair and given Ukraine slot #12 rather than attempting to bury them. Why they have done this, we’ll never know. Stefania has charted well across Europe after their show and they had good social media stats after Tuesday night. Although on closer inspection, these stats really aren’t that much of an improvement from Shum. A noticeable observation from the jury show was how relatively muted the audience were during the Ukraine performance. It is possible that viewers at home may still be thinking about Italy and Spain’s performances. Ukraine is also preceded by Netherlands which should get a strong jury showing. The #13 – #18 run in the final is very boring , and the audience is awoken by Moldova who are lapped up by the arena. In my opinion the Moldovan entry is a a real dampner on the Ukraine televote. A big question mark of course is the jury vote. With so many jury appealing songs in this final can jurors really rank Ukraine above entries such as the UK, Sweden, Italy, Spain, Greece, Netherlands, Poland and Switzerland? Thought it is likely some countries juries may give 12 as an act of solidarity. It remains to be seen what happens but the Ukraine price is way too short.

Spain: Chanel is ticking all the boxes and delivered an epic package. SloMo has undergone a subtle revamp and introduced a stronger Latin American element, which gives it a more national identity. They have also introduced jury notes to tick the “vocal capacity” box on the jury checklist. In a final which is full of ballads Spain has such a strong USP. The staging is very slick and they have even added a winners pyro curtain. It is more like an MTV awards performance than a Eurovision one. The big question mark is juries of course but can they really ignore such a solid package? Foureira managed 5th with the juries and this is a step above her. We could be onto a winner here

United Kingdom: Sam Ryder knocked it out of the park at the jury show. This has really been elevated live, much like Dami Im did with her song. Sam is a charismatic, engaging and likeable performer. I have this down as a jury winner because of how good the vocal is and how authentic the package feels. This also has a great slot in #22 sandwiched between 2 good vocals but very dark packages. Ryder is almost like the light in the middle. The big question of course is televote. The UK has a poor record, but they have sent poor songs. @VVeedla compared this entry to Voila on it’s initial release and that comparison has aged well. Space Man has a very strong British identity, with many comparing Ryder to Freddie Mercury and the song sounds like an Elton John one. Voila at the time was also compared to Edith Piath. This is something Europeans have arguably wanted from the UK at ESC for year. Sam is also a huge personality and a TikTok star of course. His video calling for votes has received 13m views on the platform, even if just a fraction are from voting countries it can make the difference.

Italy: Mahmood and Blanco have taken huge steps from their first rehearsal. Their jury show was fantastic and vocally excellent. The staging is nice and the lighting works well. The intensity levels are high between the two, but not quite as high as in Sanremo. Italy is probably the biggest loser from the running order having to precede Spain who essentially steals the show. The crowd also lifts this entry with home advantage. This should be in both the jury and televote top 5 so cannot be ruled out of contention.

Sweden: Cornelia was at her best at the jury final, adding in that emotional jury note. Her post-semi final stats are good too suggesting she easily won the semi final. She should be vying for the jury win. My concern is the televote here. I feel that this has lost its intimiacy from Melfest. In particular, the camera angles during the last minute are very poor. However, again I cannot rule this out of contention.

Prediction:

1. UK
2. Ukraine
3. Spain
4. Italy
5. Sweden

I have gone with the UK here for a number of reasons. It seems like everything is falling into place: the running order, the staging and the performer. Sam Ryder has a winner quality about him, in the same way Conchita and Salvador had. In the end, Ukraine very much still has a chance of winning but I have gone with the value here

6-10: Serbia, Poland, Norway, Greece, Moldova

Serbia should be storming the balkan vote much like Hurricane did but this likely going to be appreciated by casuals more. Juries should also appreciate it for it’s authenticity and artistic direction. Moldova is an entry I am expecting to reach top 5 in the televote because it pleases all regions. Therefore I expect it to make top 10.

Last place: Germany or Iceland

This is a tough market. Iceland looks like a value bet because nordics should be going for Sweden, Finland, UK and Norway over this leaving little for Iceland. Germany seems like the default option having to go after Ukraine but may get some jury love.

Recommended bets:

Lay Ukraine to win @ 1.43 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Moldova Top 10 @1.8 (Betfair Exchange)

Back UK Jury winner @ 2.75 (Bet365) and Sweden Jury winner @ 6.6 (Betfair Exchange)

Lay France Top 15 @ 1.77 (Betfair Exchange)