It’s finally Eurovision week and after Monday’s jury show we can take a look at the countries hoping to make it to Saturday night.

Let’s start off with the safe qualifiers that should be sailing through to Saturday night: Ukraine, Greece, Netherlands, Armenia, Norway and Portugal. It seems like we have a solid top 3 for this semi: Ukraine, Greece and Norway. Ukraine comes before an ad break and injects some life into the show after a dire run of songs from slot 2 to 5. The overall low quality means it should be up there with the jury and should be winning the semi comfortably. Greece performed excellently at the jury show and some small staging tweaks means they should be the jury winner. A good draw means they should be 2nd-3rd easily. Norway will do very well with the televote and should get a decent jury haul as it is a well produced song. Netherlands has been touted by many to also get a top 3 result. Whilst a jury top 3 result is very likely, I found the staging to be very boring. I struggle to see this challenging with the televote, especially when Greece is more dramatic and engaging.

Now let’s take a look at the countries fighting for the last few spots.

Albania: Ronela has dialled up the aggression sincw FiK. The first 2 minutes of this are a great opener in my opinion, but the last minute is quite messy. Juries may very well be put off by this. Albania seems to have enough allies in this semi to make it over the line, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it missed out.

Latvia: Citi Zeni are a big contrast to Ronela and this actually feels more like an opener. This is energetic and fun. The big question mark is how well can this stand out from #2 and followed by Moldova, Ukraine and Norway.

Switzerland: The Swiss team is bringing one of the best stagings in my opinion. SJB has done very well with the camerawork here. The big problem is the running order and whether Marius did well enough in the jury show. SUI has stong fundamentals having finished 3rd in SF1 Eurojury and being the only male soloist may make him stand out in a sea of female ballads.

Moldova: They had the biggest reaction in the hall last night. I was initially sceptical of Moldova’s q chances as the entry felt very cheap. However it looks like it will connect with the audience and it has a few friends in the semi.

Austria: The ORF team have done well to mask Pia Maria’s vocal problems. Although on the camera feed it is noticeable she is essentially miming at points.This does come alive with a crowd and has a good running order surrounded by dull songs. This is a tough one to call and will come down to how much the juries punish Pia.

Iceland: This is staged very well and feels warm. The harmonies are excellent and Iceland has chosen a great recap clip. However, the first minute is quite boring and tough to get through. They do have some help with Denmark, Norway and Netherlands in the semi. Noticeably, the ladies made a political statement about Ukraine at the end of their performance which could earn them some goodwill points. The question is how will this fare against the other female ballads.

Lithuania: A classy performance but this gets lost in the running order. This feels like a step back from the national final performance.

My picks are: Ukraine, Greece, Netherlands, Armenia, Norway, Portugal, Moldova, Switzerland, Albania and Latvia

Recommended bets:

Back Ukraine to win SF1 @ 1.6 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Norway Top 3 SF1 @ 1.96 (Betfair Exchange)

Lay Netherlands Top 3 SF1 @ 2.7 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Switzerland to Qualify @ 2.52 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Moldova to Qualify @1.4 (Betfair Exchange)