After a night of good bets on Tuesday it’s time to turn our attention to the 2nd semi final tonight. The quality is much higher here in this semi final and I can only rule 3 countries out of contention: Georgia, North Macedonia and Montenegro.

First let’s take a look at who we can say is: Sweden, Poland, Australia, Estonia and Czech Republic

Czechia is my outside tip for top 3. This has been a huge improvement from the pre-party circuit. The staging and lighting is excellent and the packages comes alive with a crowd. The pimp slot means it is definitely challenging for top 3.

Now let’s look at the contenders for the last spots

Serbia: This should be through quite comfortably. It has a likely 48 points head start with North Macedonia and Montenegro. Jurors should also be rewarding the package for it’s authenticity and originality. It may be off putting for first time viewers but it is also very Eurovision at the same time.

Finland: Lauri delivered his best vocal of the season at the jury show last night. This is likely going to go through on name anyway due to the Rasmus’s popularity with the older demographic and in the east.

Azerbaijan: Nadir delivered a stellar vocal yesterday. The staging is very theatrical and contemporary. I can see juries ranking this very high. However, it takes a long time for the song to get going, so televoters may lose interest. It is also competing with Australia and Poland for jury points.

Israel: A slick and competent performance from Israel. However, Michael continues to be “in your face” and has upped the campness which may put televoters off. MBD faces an uphill battle in slot 2 and with competition from Romania in the 2nd half

Malta: Emma gave a good performance yesterday and added some jury notes to tick a few boxes. The staging is uplifting and very X factor winner. Emma is likeable and smiles at the camera a lot. Malta also stands out in a sea of quirkiness. Jurors are likely going to reward this, but whether it stands out of enough to get enough televote. Malta does come before a break and has a few “friends” to help out.

San Marino: This was the performance of the night yesterday. It received by far the biggest reception from the crowd. The last minute just screams Eurovision. I am expecting the televote to drag this through to the Saturday night. It is a question of how much the jury has harmed this.

Cyprus: This is one of the biggest disappointments of the contest. The Cypriot team have got everything wrong here. Andromache’s vocal has been very shaky. The staging is very static and the camera angles make the performance seem very distant. This will get some love from televoters but I don’t think it will be enough to get over the line.

Ireland: Brooke has had one of the biggest glow ups this season. This is an excellent performance. She is fun, energetic and charismatic. The lighting is also great and her vocal is good. Ireland is a friendly semi but the competition is very tough. She does stand out in between the stiffness of Cyprus and North Macedonia.

Romania: Well performed but this feels like it’s enough. The semi final is too high quality and the jury will likely have this right at the bottom. The Romanian diaspora have also seem to lost interest in the contest.

Belgium: Like Cyprus this has been staged poorly. It feels very static and takes too long to get going. Jeremie over-emotes to the camera at many moments. His vocal was poor at the jury show. This is still a good song and the jury may pull it through. It came 3rd at Eurojury but the live version is a significant downgrade.

My 10 picks are: Sweden, Poland, Australia, Estonia, Czech Republic, Serbia, Finland, Malta, Azerbaijan and San Marino

Recommended bets:

Back Czech Republic top 3 @ 3.1 (Betfair Exchange)

Back San Marino to Qualify @2.0 (Boyle Sports)

Back Cyprus to Not Qualify @1.8 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Back Belgium to Not Qualify @ 2.38 (Betfair Sportsbook)