Another season of Mello madness comes to a close tonight at Friends Arena, as 12 competitors (or 11 support acts + 1 participant as some would say) battle it out for the Mello trophy. 

There’s no doubt of course who will be crowned the winner tonight, Loreen. From the moment I watched her first rehearsal on a gloomy Thursday late afternoon I knew we had our Mello winner and the frontrunner for the ESC title. For me it’s now just a question of Loreen’s televote at Melfest. All metrics indicate she should landslide this and it will be interesting to see how close she comes to Anders Bagge and Tusse’s historic numbers. 

The fight for 2nd and 3rd is much more unpredictable. I have previously tipped Smash Into Pieces for top 3 and still recommend this. SIP have a USP and an overall strong package with their futuristic staging. Jurors should be rewarding the credibility and clean vocal from the band. Moreover, the song is accessible and palatable enough to prevent jurors from marking it down. Their Spotify numbers have been excellent, as they are the 2nd most streamed act beating acts such as Marcus & Martinus and Theoz. I am expecting the band to be 2nd-3rd in televote and 2nd-4th in jury, which should be enough for a top 3 slot. The twins slick package and modern song is almost certainly going to be rewarded by international jurors. However, I would not be surprised if they receive an underwhelming televote. Their streaming numbers have been a lot lower than expected, which was also the case for Bluffin last year that suffered an underwhelming televote too. Their support is also concentrated with the younger groups. Maria Sur has a USP being the only ballad in the final and could get a nice jury score just based off this but the unoriginality and poor lyrics could see her marked down. Televote wise her momentum has completely stalled with poor streaming numbers and the media narrative being dominated by Loreen’s return. 

Last place is a tricky market this year. Both Mariette and Paul Rey should be at the bottom of the televote with poor streaming and polling numbers to show for it. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mariette scored well with the international jury. She performs the song well and it has an anthemic/ light gospel touch that the Melfest jury has really appreciated the last few years. Paul Rey’s number too has an anthemic quality and modern production that can see it get middling scores from jurors that might be enough to push it above last. On the other hand, Tone should be down at the bottom of the juror rankings. Her streaming numbers have been very weak this year especially considering her song last year was a hit. In the first heat she almost beat JHF and friends in the audience poll but in the final she dropped to 10th. Tone is the act that I think will consistently score low across both jury and public vote.

There are a number of H2H and points markets available on Unibet that are interesting. Panetoz have been given an early slot in the running order. For an act in their genre, their streaming numbers are relatively poor and there really isn’t much for a juror to be loving here. The top 5 does look solid this year but there is probably room for an upset. Kiana is one act that I see can pose a challenge. Her song is modern and the overall package is slick. Jurors will like the fact that she is so young yet able to perform very well. Her streaming numbers have improved a lot too suggesting momentum with the public. JHF will likely do well on the televote because of his personal vote but the messiness of the visual package could see it pushed down by jurors and narrowly miss out on the top 5. 

Recommended bets:

Back Smash into Pieces Top 3 @ 1.8 (Unibet)

Back Smash into Pieces Top 2 @ 4.0 (Unibet)

Back Tone Sekelius Last Place @ 2.75 (Unibet)

Back Panetoz Under 53.5 points @2.65 (Unibet)

Back Maria Sur Under 110.5 Points @1.42 (Unibet)

Back Kiana Top 5 @6.0 (Unibet)