An eventful national final season comes to a close in Friends Arena. 6 weeks ago few would have predicted the final battle coming down to Cornelia and Anders. I will lay out some bets I recommend.

Cornelia Jakobs to win Melfest @ 1.5 (Bet365)

Anders Bagge to win Melfest televote @ 1.29 (Smarkets)

I am of the opinion that Cornelia will sneak a win. She has gained momentum over the last week rising to #2 in the Spotify charts and regularly receiving airplay. It’s clear she is the chosen one from producers by getting the #10 slot. The composition of jurors being western should also help her expand her jury lead. Whilst Anders is looking at a 90+ televote point score I think Cornelia should net enough from the jury score. An important change this year is the resetting of the app vote after the jury have voted. Voters are likely to transfer their votes to those at the top of the jury scoreboard, as they are perceived to be more likely to win. This is likely to provide a boost to Cornelia and Liamoo, who I believe will be the likely jury leaders.

Liamoo to beat Klara @ 3.2 (Unibet)

This is likely to be a close race but I see value in Liamoo’s price. He has the slickest performance this year and had made improvements with the addition of dancers in the final. This is the sort of package that Mello jurors love so I’m expecting it to be in their top 2. Whilst Klara has done extremely well on streaming platforms, it can be argued her support is concentrated with the young. I’m also not sure how much love the jury will give to this, the song is quite dated and the performance strays too towards the novelty line with the staging.

Lay Faith Kakembo for Last Place @ 2.98 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Anna B for Last Place @ 7 (Smarkets)

I think Faith Kakembo could avoid last place. Songs like this have done especially well with the jury in the past. Nano’s “Chasing Rivers” comes to mind and that placed a shocking 2nd with the jury. The jury could be enough to save Faith from last. A potential last placer is Anna B. She received a measly 1 vote in the jury final exit poll. It is important to remember how Anna placed 10th in 2019 with a stronger song imo. Whilst Anna could get some older votes, this year she faces strong competition from the likes of Anders, Cornelia and John Lundvik.

Cornelia to win Melfest jury @ 1.35 (Unibet) 3pts

Liamoo to win Melfest jury @ 10 (Unibet) 1pt

Cornelia should win the jury, especially with the Western bias this year. Liamoo however poses a threat with a slick competent package that jurors usually aim for. Whilst I have backed Cornelia to win the jury, I have put a small amount on Liamoo as a cover as odds of 10.0 are way too long imo.

My overall prediction for this year is:

1. Cornelia
2. Anders
3. Liamoo