TVTips.UK

After watching yesterday’s preview show, let’s delve into tonight’s first Eurovision semifinal.

Winner and Top 3 market:

Croatia has shortened to as low as 2.0 with high street bookies for the overall Eurovision win over the last 24 hours. Baby Lasagna impressed me yesterday and has improved his vocals significantly since Dora. The whole package feels a lot more epic with SVT production and an arena crowd. Yesterday was the first time where I felt that this is clearly the one to beat. Ukraine is an entry that I have been pretty optimistic about over the last few weeks. I think this is an excellent performance, although I can understand why there has been a bit of a drift. It feels like the team have packed too many ideas into this. The staging, with its themes of war, religion, and feminism, feels a bit cluttered, but Jerry and Alyona have shown improvement. However, it is possible that there has been a bit of an overreaction with the drift. The full performance leaked on TikTok this morning, hitting almost 1m+ views and the comments are overwhelmingly positive. It’s possible that casuals like this much more than fans. Whilst it is a friendly semi for Ukraine, I’m expecting Croatia to take the win although the margin may be lower than expected. Lithuania is as solid as ever and has a decent number of friends in this semi. However I think it’s just a bit too “lightweight” and early in the semi final running order to make the top 3. Finland has a fantastic running order and should wake up viewers after a bit of a lull in the running order. This one could do relatively better on the Saturday night when there’s more drunk casuals tuning in. At the moment I have it comfortably in the 3rd-5th range for this semi. Those who read my pre-rehearsal preview will recall my recommendation to consider backing Ireland in numerous markets for those seeking trading opportunity. This has played out exactly like I imagined with hype from both the Eurovision fan press and domestic media in Ireland pushing their price to win Eurovision down to as low as 9.0 with Ladbrokes. Bambie Thug’s performance is cinematic and epic. The ending in particular is one of my favourite parts of any performance this season with the pyro and #CrownTheWitch written across the LED screen. Having backed this at 5s for overall top 10 and 6s for semi top 3, I’m very pleased with my position so far. I currently have this 3rd in my semi final projection. Ireland will be helped by the shock factor and there’s a decent number of countries in this semi final who have shown to be appreciative of more alternative Eurovision entries. If Hatari can win their semi final televote then this should be top 3 too. In terms of their final result, I’m of the view that this will place in the lower top 10. However, there is the potential for social media hype possibly pushing this a bit higher. Bambie has “Free Palestine” written on their body and wearing a trans flag dress. Two social messages which could generate hype on social media and create a narrative. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Ireland hitting single figures to win Eurovision on Betfair Exchange soon.

Qualification

Cyprus is bringing a competent performance that is perhaps a bit amateurish, especially coming after an opening number with Chanel and Eleni. Nevertheless, they have enough “friends” to make it through. Luxembourg is closing the show and is also pretty competent and decent. However, the whole package is really lacking a call to action. The producers provide a bit of a push for Luxembourg by interviewing Tali whilst lines are open. Considering the record of pimp slot entries this should be fine. Poland has a poor running order, sandwiched between the giants of Ukraine and Croatia. They do have enough diaspora nations in their semi so should clear a 45 point hurdle. Although there is a risk their diaspora could desert them and support Ukraine instead, considering the success of “Teresa and Maria” in Poland. Iceland and Azerbaijan are hopeless, I have the latter coming last after their really poor performances yesterday. Moldova is pretty nice and gets the crowd clapping along, although I’m not sure there’s a strong enough reason to pick up the phone for this. Especially when there are very strong entries from the East in this semi. Portugal has the penultimate slot. It is a very pleasant number but most importantly it stands out for its sheer quality when compared to the rest of the entries in this half. Although, I think it’s price now is too short considering it doesn’t really have a strong call to action. Slovenia’s Raiven is an extremely talented artist but i’m not convinced about the vote-ability of this package. I struggle to see it getting high points outside the balkans and a few middling points from the East.

I currently have Serbia and Australia fighting for 10th place. Serbia has been drawn in the dreaded slot 2 and does get lost in the whole semi final lineup, especially considering the high quality entries that follow. Moreover, I think Portugal easily beats it in terms of the neutral televote for viewers looking for something a bit classier. I can get Serbia to around 40 points in my projection but if it can achieve beyond this to secure qualification is the big question. It’s also possible diaspora leave Teya behind to support Croatia. Australia has been an entry which I have changed my mind a lot on. Electric Fields aren’t exactly the most convincing artists but it is a fun performance. The didgeridoo creates a good moment on stage too that I think casuals will like. The ESC Bubble panel of casual viewers took a liking to the song which I find interesring. In terms of its path to qualification they should be scoring decently with countries like the UK, Ireland, Sweden, Iceland and Finland. I have them just making it but it will be close and the ROTW vote could make the difference.

Big 5: This year will be the first time we see the big 5 perform live. The UK has visually impressive staging that jurors should reward, although Olly can be a bit vocally off towards the end. I’m less enthusiastic about the televote, especially in the east considering the performance. Germany was enjoyable and performed well. It should be getting enough jury love to avoid last, but the televote will be very low. I was surprisingly most impressed by Sweden. SVT have managed to elevate this from Melfest and the performance feels and looks even more high quality.

Prediction:

1. Croatia
2. Ukraine
3. Ireland

Rest of qualifiers: Cyprus, Luxembourg, Portugal, Finland, Poland, Australia and Lithuania

Recommended bets:

Iceland, Azerbaijan and Serbia to Not Qualify @2.67 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Croatia, Cyprus, Ukraine, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Luxembourg & Finland to Qualify @2.2 (SkyBet)

Croatia, Cyprus, Ukraine, Finland, Lithuania, Ireland and Luxembourg to Qualify @1.83 (SkyBet)

Sweden Top 10 @2.34 (Betfair Exchange)

Croatia to win Eurovision 2024 @2.2 (Betfair Exchange)

Already tipped:

Back Slovenia to NQ @2.0

Back Portugal to Q 1.83

As the pre-party season concludes and the final votes from OGAE and Eurojury are tallied, we stand on the brink of what promises to be one of the most unpredictable Eurovision contests ever. Now, let’s delve into an analysis of the leading contenders!

Switzerland: Nemo’s “The Code” will enter the rehearsal period as the market leader, last matched at 3.3 on Betfair exchange. “The Code” is one of the most modern, unique and dynamic entries this year with a distinctive artist. This entry has much to offer the jurors: they should appreciate its modern vibe, creativity and out of the box nature. However, 3.3 is definitely a price I would not recommend backing. Of the contenders, Switzerland feels the most stage dependent and i’m not confident that they will be able to transfer the feeling and atmosphere from the music video onto the Eurovision stage. Those on the pro-Swiss train had been hoping for a runaway Eurojury win, which did not materialise. At Eurovision, I could see one of France or Italy taking the jury win, considering they appear to be more “agreeable” for jurors. On the televote side it feels highly unlikely this will be in the televote top 3, considering the strength of Netherlands, Croatia, Ukraine and Israel on this side of the vote. Comparisons have been made between Nemo and Conchita but i think this appears to be slightly misguided. Conchita’s performance delivered a clear, powerful message that resonated across demographics and borders. In contrast, there’s a risk that Nemo’s story might not engage or be as easily understood by the audience. Nonetheless, there remains a decent sized path to victory for Switzerland, akin to Conchita’s triumph, which would require an impeccably executed stage presentation that turns their performance into the highlight of the contest—the moment that everyone will be talking about on the Saturday.

Croatia: Baby Lasagna was the market leader for a significant part of the season but will be entering Malmo 2nd in the odds. When the music video for this entry was released I was very optimistic about Croatia’s prospects. ‘Rim Tim Tagi Dim’ is super catchy, almost like a combination of Blind Channel and Kaarija. The message of the song is one which can resonate with millions of Europeans across the continent, not just limited to the balkan region. It manages to be universally accessible whilst retaining a distinct balkan identity. Most importantly, it’s delivered by an extremely likeable character with an underdog story. All these factors mean that it has the potential to rack up a huge televote score at the contest. Eurojury also suggests there can be jury support for this number. The main drawback with this entry so far has been the live execution. The live performance was far from perfect at Dora but it’s hard to make a judgement from that setting. My main concern has been the Kaarija imitations in the staging so far, particularly the lighting and outfit. If I was advising the Croatian team I would suggest focusing more on the “cats” element of the staging, which has meme potential. There is also the possibility that this gets a bit lost in the hype that Netherlands may have during the final week, although 2017 and 2021 show us 2 televote titans can co-exist together. Ultimately, it will come down to the staging changes which are crucial to ensuring Croatia doesn’t come across as a Kaarija tribute act that even Kaarija isn’t supporting.

Netherlands: After drifting out to 600.00 post-song release the current leader in streaming stats, Joost Klein is now in trading in single figures. Joost has an excellent marketing strategy which has helped the song go viral in the Benelux region. While the bulk of the streaming support is originating from this region, if we set aside the figures from the Netherlands and Belgium, the current raw streaming numbers are approximately three times higher than what Kaarija achieved at the same point last year. I currently have this as my televote winner as I anticipate the pro- European message can unite the continent and impact the collective consciousness of viewers. On the jury side, I’m more optimistic than many despite the meh Euorojury score. “Europapa” has all the makings of a huge hit—it’s fresh, modern, and playful. Additionally, the staging team is focusing on enhancing the emotional appeal of the final part of the song to boost its jury appeal. The biggest question for this is how well it can do in the East and South, especially when we have a strong Croatia and Ukraine this year. Some have also questioned how many televote points this can get as we are in a year full of public vote hitters. Whilst this is true, I think in the age of social media and hype – low televote scoring winners seem to be a thing of the past, especially looking at the last 3 contests. The Dutch team seems to be well-prepared; they’ve been working on the staging for 9 months and are keenly aware of the need to impress the jurors. A major advantage for the Netherlands is momentum. With Joost closing the semi-finals, he’s ideally placed to build momentum and potentially have the honour of being “#1 in the bookmakers” on the Friday… a handy signal to send to jurors.

Italy: Angelina Mango’s number has somehow managed to become the most polarising entry amongst the betting community this year. Angelina has a strong Lena aura about her. A very young charismatic likeable performer with an infectious song. Italy has arguably one of the strongest overall packages this year when looking at song, singer and staging. There’s lots for jurors to like here too: a modern song with huge hit potential and a young performer who is able to command the stage at an almost unprecedented level. I guess the biggest concern here is the televote. There’s arguably a lot more entries (NL, CRO, UKR, ISR, GRE) which have a stronger call to action – a reason for people to pick up the phone. Perhaps this entry is just too ordinary? I think this is a decent argument but i’m not totally convinced. With summer approaching around the corner, this song which is crying out to be a European summer smash hit, could fit perfectly with what viewers are wanting. In a year full of crazy songs, this could stand out to televoters simply because of how high quality and classy it is. Ideally Mango would need a running order position in the range of 21-24 to ensure she does stand out. Apart from Mango’s star quality, Italy’s other weapon is Marta Donà – the music manager who propelled Maneskin from X Factor runners up to Grammy nominated superstars. Marta might be the only person in Italy who knows how Eurovision works and has assembled a great team to create a new performance for Eurovision. It would be foolish to rule Italy out considering this team and the great stats so far, hence I’ve kept this green in my outright book.

Ukraine: Matched as low as 3.15 before fading away during March and hitting a high of 21.5, Ukraine has been the entry i’ve probably been the loudest about. I think people have forgotten the reception that Teresa & Maria received upon its release. The song shot straight to #1 in Ukraine and charted in neighbouring countries. Most importantly, the duo received 720,000 votes at Vidbir – simply just a colossal and historic number. Of course there’s also the vast Ukranian diaspora to consider which gives them a huge head start. Given that Tvorchi, an act I believe would not have qualified with any other country, managed to secure 4th place in the televote with 189 points, it’s hard for me to imagine Alyona & Jerry, with a song that resonates with the diaspora, receiving less than about 240 televote points. Let’s not forget that Ukraine are the masters of Eurovision staging too. In interviews, the duo has suggested that their new Eurovision staging will embrace a superwoman/feminist theme—a motif that Eurovision jurors have historically favoured (consider Netta, Tamara, Manizha, and Vesna). They also seem to stand out in this years crazy and party lineup because of the emotional impact they bring. I can totally see the possibility of an outsider Jamala style victory. Even if you don’t see Teresa and Maria as winning material, the math makes it clear to me that this is at least each way value.

Best of the rest: The big unknown in this years contest is Israel’s televote score. There is no negative voting at Eurovision of course so even if Israel scored only around 5% in each countries’ televote – this would still lead to a hefty televote score. We’re already seeing the Israeli team push a “victim” narrative in the media, briefing how it’s not safe for them to leave the hotel and talking about abuse they have faced. Large protests planned in Malmo can feed into this “bullying and hateful” narrative even more, motivating Israeli supporters to vote and creating a sympathy narrative. I imagine some jurors will intentionally blank this, but others could overmark. “Hurricane” is quite a dated X Factor style ballad but it has done decently in Eurojury showing that jurors aren’t afraid to attach their name to this and clearly some older jurors in particular may like this style of vocal acrobatics. For this reason, I have backed Israel heavily in most possible markets. France should be high up with the jury vote, possibly winning, simply because of Slimane’s star quality. I’m not totally convinced about the televote yet but there’s an audience for this. Greece is another i’m optimistic about simply because Zari is one of the most modern and bold entries we’ve ever seen at Eurovision. I disagree with many bettors who think the jury won’t take kindly to this. The powerful Greek diaspora has been missing in action for over a decade but we are expecting their return this year. However, there is a bit of a ceiling for this as Northern Europe will blank this. Looking at other markets, Armenia is one which I think is value for top 10. It has a vibe reminiscent of Moldova’s 2022 entry, possessing a universal appeal to both Eastern and Western audiences, primarily due to its fun and joyous nature.. It has also overperformed in Eurojury. Whilst I have been critical of the UK, it’s likely they will bring excellent staging. I can see it finishing in the lower end of the jury top 10 with some low-mid televote from the Nordic area helping it finish in the top 15 overall. As usual, we can expect UK casuals to come and shorten the price closer to the contest.

Recommended bets:

Back Ukraine to win Eurovision 2024 each way @13.0 (Unibet)

Back Israel Top 5 @3.75 (Boyle Sports)

Back Netherlands to win Eurovision 2024 @7.0 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Armenia Top 10 @2.78-2.75 (Betfair Exchange and Unibet)

Back United Kingdom Top 15 @2.5 (Betfair Exchange)

For the first time in years we enter the Sanremo final with a sense of uncertainty around the looming result. I have around 4 entries down as very likely to make the final 5, let’s take a look at the contenders:

Geolier: Neapolitan rapper Geolier caused a shock result and uproar in the Ariston last night by winning covers night. Rumours have been circulating on Twitter that Geolier had attained at least 51% of the televote in a 15 song field on Wednesday and the covers night result seems to have given these rumours credibility. Geolier’s colossal televote is being driven by regional voting in Naples. He is rapping in the Neapolitan language, which has generated a backlash amongst the right in Italy but also mobilised voters in the South who feel like he is a victim of anti-Southernism. We know Geolier’s support amongst the press jury is poor but there remains some question marks around the radio jury considering his song is getting airplay and the radio jury is weighted by regional population.

Angelina: Rising star Angelina has momentum behind her after winning Wednesday night and coming 2nd on covers night. Her song “La Noia” has also been rising on streaming platforms such as Spotify and Amazon Music. We know that she has strong press support and will almost certainly be the favourite of the press jury in the superfinal. Angelina’s surprise loss during covers night has generated sentiment that she was “robbed”. Her covers night performance has received over 30 million views, charted on Apple Music and she has gained almost 200,000 followers in the space of less than 12 hours. This “robbed” sentiment can be enough for juries to coalesce around her and stop Geolier. One glaring uncertainty with Angelina is we still don’t really know her televote strength with her actual entry as she competed on the Wednesday night where other favourites were absent.

Annalisa: The pre-live favourite Annalisa has the entry that has performed most consistently across streaming platforms and stats. “Sinceramente” sits at #1 on Amazon, #1 on the radio airplay charts, #1 on Itunes, #2 on Youtube, #3 on Spotify and Apple Music. Despite some fantastic live performances and over-performing yesterday relative to stats, it feels like Angelina’s momentum has thwarted Annalisa’s chances of a victory. With all things being equal, I think Annalisa would still be in contention. Instead, it seems like placing 2nd or 3rd is the best she can hope for.

Irama: A Lewis Capaldi like ballad that might have been a serious contender in any other year. Irama has a motivated fanbase that has proven it will pick up the phone for him, as he placed 2nd on Wednesday night beating acts like Annalisa, Loredana and Mahmood. Considering tonight is 100% televote this should be enough for him to make the top 5.

The 5th superfinal spot seems to be between Ghali, Mahmood and Loredana. Ghali will be ahead at the start of tonight when Amadeus reveals the combined ranking. Ghali has benefited from the Wednesday/Thursday split, where he placed 2nd on the Thursday night and a top 5 finish on covers night. Considering Geolier likely took a large % of points on Tuesday, Ghali should be well ahead of the Tuesday night participants. Mahmood is the act who has gained the most momentum on streaming platforms across the week and now charting at #2 on Spotify Italy chart and #41 on the global chart. On the other hand, Loredana seems to have lost momentum. It’s a hard one to predict but I think the more casual viewers tuning in on Saturday night plus good running order slot could be enough to push Mahmood’s hit song through.

Prediction:

This is the toughest Sanremo to predict in years and even small things like the 5th superfinalist could be enough to change the outcome. I think the backlash from yesterday’s result will be enough to give Angelina the victory. The show will open with Amadeus revealing the current top 30 combined ranking. Angelina in number 2 behind Geolier should act as a signal to jurors on who to line up behind and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Angelina receive around 55% of the press jury vote. It’s important to note that in the superfinal jurors have much more power as they must vote for only ONE act. Whilst it might be difficult for jurors to tactically vote for ONE act they can ensure they do not vote for Geolier. This prevented Ultimo from winning in 2019 and the sentiment towards Geolier feels even more negative than it was towards Ultimo. I think his jury support will be limited to those jurors from his region, and for the radio jury this is limited to around 10% of the juror pool due to regional weighting. Moreover, acts who have a big fan base have usually underperformed in superfinals as the vote is only open for around 15 mins so they don’t have as long to mobilise their fans. The most recent example of this is Fedez in 2021. Looking at the rest of the podium, Geolier’s large televote % should increase the relevance of the radio and press jury even more. This looks to benefit Annalisa who should still be on course to perform well across all 3 voting sections. In terms of my own book I started the week with Annalisa as my biggest green but have now switched to backing Angelina, covering Geolier too.

1. Angelina
2. Geolier
3. Annalisa
4. Irama
5. Mahmood

Recommended bets:

Back Angelina to win Sanremo 2024 @2.24 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Annalisa Top 3 @1.85 (Bet365)

After 3 weeks of MGP heat we have our first Super Saturday of the season. Let’s take a look at the competitions tonight.

Melodifestivalen

Melfest has by far the most exciting betting market out of all the events tonight. The fight for the 2nd qualification spot seems wide open between a few contenders.

Adam Woods has a standard uptempo number, which sounds like it belongs in Danny Saucedo’s 2010s catalogue, to open the show. He has a cool staging concept. However, the song is quite vocally demanding and Adam’s voice has been quite shaky at a few rehearsals. Nevertheless, this is an entry which benefits from the app and age group system. I can imagine most viewers will be giving this 3/4 app hearts and being universally liked across all age groups. Yet, I think it’s a bit of an uphill climb to grab the 12s and 10s that are needed for the last DTF spot.

Samir and Viktor are making their return to the Mello stage after a long break, with a performance that is almost like a parody of themselves. Their vocals have been pretty poor over the last few days, but the extent to which vocals really matter at Mello is limited. However, they do have a fanbase which keeps them in top 4 contention.

Elisa is bringing a classic schlager entry that so many Mello fans crave. This is a fun number that will be helped by the age group system. She should be scoring 10s and 12s with the older groups and the phone vote. It’s very unlikely the kiddies will get behind this one but she might just scrape enough points for top 4.

Lisa Ajax returns as a soloist with a classic 2016 Zara Larsson heartbreak pop ballad. This is well performed with some excellent vocals on display. The theatrical staging is something we’ve all seen before. More importantly, Lisa’s postcard mentions her pregnancy numerous times and there could be some “sympathy” effect with viewers. She exceeded expectations in the audience poll, where she was just 3 votes behind Samir and Viktor who performed twice. I think older viewers will like this well performed number and Lisa still has a young fanbase behind her.

Smash Into Pieces should be easily winning this heat, but in terms of winning everything I think they’re out of contention. “Hear them calling” is less catchier than “Six Feet Under”, but their staging has elevated somewhat.

Recommended bet:

Back Lisa Ajax DTF @2.55 (Unibet)

Back Elisa to Run Off @1.9 (Unibet)

Benidorm Fest:

The Benidorm Fest voting system essentially gives the winner away. It’s hard to see what could stop St Pedro who scored 94 out of a maximum 96 points with the jury. Nebulossa were the other semi winner but I don’t really see them posing a serious challenge, I think the jury overmarked them in a semi final context to reward their boldness and fun performance. I have Jorge down as the televote and demoscopic jury winner. He is gaining some momentum, currently trending very highly on the Youtube charts. It’s possible that the jury could feel some pressure to increase their scores for him, but audience backlash hasn’t stopped them from burying favourites in the past. Angy could also improve on her semi final placing, she is one of the most known performers and could resonate more with the casual Saturday night audience.

Melodi Grand Prix:

Another National Final where we have a short priced favourite. Before the running order reveal, I leaned towards Keiino taking the win. Their SF performance was fun but also professional. Some on Twitter have said they expect the jury to bury Keiino but I don’t expect this to happen. There will be people in the “Eurovision bubble” on the jury and the vocal performance by Alexandra is very strong. However, NRK have made their intentions clear and probably want to send something that could get some jury points this year. Erika Norwich and Super Rob are the most streamed act this year, but their momentum has stalled after failing to make the top 30 on Spotify. The 1 vote per user limit means there could be some vote split with the uptempos hurting both Keiino and Erika Norwich. Gåte should definitely be the favourites but I think the margin will be closer than expected.

Prediction:

1. Gåte
2. KEiiNO
3. Dag Erik and Anne

Vidbir:

Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil should be running away with this one, but Vidbir jurys can throw a spanner in the works sometimes. This is one to watch for the outright market. I have been sceptical about how the duo will work live, so it’s one to watch. Keep an eye out on the televote margin too, a huge victory against the Melovin fan girls will signal that Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil have potential to rack up a huge televote at ESC by connecting with the diaspora.

Malta Song Contest

The Maltese “establishment” seem to have lined up behind Matt Blxck, although I have seen the girl group win some local polls. I can see “Banana” qualifying at ESC but it needs huge and fun staging!

After 2 years of successfully tipping the Eurosong winner, let’s take a look at the contenders tonight and see if I can make it a hat-trick!

Isabella Kearney – Let Me Be The Fire: Australian-Irish songwriter Isabella Kearney is making her artist debut with pop banger “Let Me Be The Fire”, produced by Danish legend, Cutfather. Isabella’s number, whilst well produced, falls just a little bit too flat for me. I’m not totally convinced she has enough experience to pull it off live too, we’ve seen songwriters struggle to transition to singer on the ESC stage many a time. I’m expecting top 3 with the international jury for this one, but having little impact with the remaining voting sections.

Bambie Thug – Doomsday Blues: Bambie Thug will be taking viewers on a journey with Doomsday Blues being a cacophonous mix of genres. Ireland would be taking a welcomed bold risk sending this. Despite Eurosong’s slightly upgraded stage this year, I struggle to see this working live as a cohesive package. Late Late Show viewers are likely to be perplexed by Bambie’s stage show. Moreover, seeing how the national jury has voted over the last 2 years makes me doubtful about how they’ll perceive this number.

JyellowL – Judas: JyellowL’s entry has a very pleasant melody and I enjoy the chorus. However, it feels too chill to have any real impact. He also plans to have dancers as part of his staging, which I can’t see working well. A likely last place, considering the taste of the Late Late Show viewers.

Ailsha – Go Tobann: The big fan favourite Ailsha is attempting to bring Irish back to the Eurovision Song Contest with her noisy number. “Go Tobann” has been a huge hit with international fans who are looking for Ireland to send something culturally relevant. This is another one which I worry may go down like a lead balloon on the small Eurosong stage. It also feels very polarising which could lead to some jurors marking it down. I do think Ailsha has a path to win Eurosong, but it’s very much dependent on whether she can convey the message to viewers clearly. I think with the limited stage resources she has it’s more likely that she’ll struggle to get this message out, however I don’t rule out her snagging the televote 12 points.

Next-in-Line – “Love Like Us”: Louis Walsh’s new boyband are aiming to fulfil the prophecy of their band name with a very Scandi inspired boyband number. There has been significant debate about the threat these boys pose to the rest of the contenders, and their price has shortened in the last few days. They have a strong USP in this female dominated lineup and on paper seem like they will have a televote pull at least. Nevertheless, just looking cute isn’t enough to win (Brendan Murray placing last in 2022) and neither is a Louis Walsh connection (Eoghan Quinn’s 2014 loss). The boys have previously sang on the Late Late Show and there was a lot left to be desired from their performance. I suspect the panellists will be on hand to provide some vote de-motivating comments, focusing on how Ireland sent a boyband last year and that didn’t exactly go well. Yet, I can’t rule out a Joe and Jake inspired upset because of the strong USP!

Erica- Cody – Love Me Like I Do: Erica Cody will attempt to make history tonight by becoming the first woman of colour to represent Ireland at ESC. Erica is by far the most established act in this lineup, but not to the same extent as Wild Youth. She is a familiar face to RTE viewers, having been a finalist of Dancing With The Stars and a host of a RTE music show. “Love Me Like I Do” has had extensive airplay in Ireland after Erica signed a record deal with Universal Music a few weeks ago. Since then, a lot of money has gone behind this act with Erica hiring the biggest creative director company in Ireland and undergoing a significant promo campaign this week. Erica is an experienced performer and should put on a good show that elevates this song. The running order also points towards her being RTE’s chosen one but the small stage will limit how much she can do.

I have been strongly backing Erica-Cody from 3.5 into 1.91. I am confident that Erica is the act who can score highly across all 3 voting sections. However, current odds don’t seem appealing with narrows paths to victory existing for NIL and Ailsha.

Already tipped:

Back Erica-Cody to win Eurosong 2024 @ 1.91 (Bet365)

The 2024 Eurovision national final season kicks off tonight in Marienlyst with the first semi final of Melodi Grand Prix. Let’s take a look at the contenders:

1. Mathilde SPZ feat. Chris Archer and Slam Dunk – “Woman Show”: An energetic eurodance party anthem that wouldn’t feel out of place at Melodifestivalen. I imagine this will be given plenty of staging as it is has the task of setting the scene for the rest of the MGP season. The group have already hinted that will be some never seen before staging, which usually means it’ll either be a big success or go down like a lead balloon. The danger with this entry is that the staging could go become too messy if they throw the kitchen sink at it. Striking the balance between slick and fun will be key to their success. I’m leaning towards this being a qualifier, I think this anthem will go down well with a Nordic audience who usually do vote for acts like this in a heat.
2. Frederik Halland – “Stranded“: The only male ballad in this year’s MGP, so it does have a strong USP. Male ballads have performed well in the past at MGP with NorthKid and Atle Petterson placing in the top 3 over the last 2 years, however these acts had a much bigger fanbase. Compared to these entries, I think “Stranded” lands on the “too boring” side of the scale. However, with the right staging and camera angles this could be a danger. There is always a constituency for a young man with a heartfelt song in a show with a public vote but I think those viewers wanting something more mainstream will be voting for Margaret. Nevertheless, odds of 7.5 with Unibet feels too big.
3. Myra – “Heart on Fire”: There isn’t a lot to say about this one. “Heart on Fire” is a decent pop song that I think will suit the radio more than a live setting. The MGP voting system limits viewers to 1 vote per account. Will this really be the number 1 favourite for many viewers? I’m sceptical about that.
4. Gothminister – “We Come Alive”: Gothminister makes his return to the MGP stage after a 10 year break. “We Come Alive” is a gothic rock song that has a surprisingly catchy hook, which makes it a bit more accessible. With the song itself being pretty repetitive, this is a number which is going to rely on the visual to captivate the audience. Gothminister will definitely have his fans but his qualification chances will come down to whether or not this appears to be too niche.
5. Ingrid Jasmin – “Eya”: Ingrid is bringing a unique mid-tempo pop song that combines a nordic feel with mediterranean elements. “Eya” seems to be a fan favourite but I’m sceptical of how well it will fare with the Norweigan public. Songs with this mediterranean element have failed to connect with Nordic viewers in the past.There’s definitely staging potential here with a dance break written into the song, but I can also see it fall flat live. Odds of 1.44 to qualify with Unibet are certainly too short.
6. Margaret Berger – “Oblivion“: Margaret is aiming to make a return to Malmo after her 4th place finish in Eurovision 2013. “Oblivion” is an airy dark electro pop song with a very nice melody. NRK are clearly wanting Margaret in this final with this pimp slot placing. In terms of the outright market, I think Margaret is heading towards a podium finish rather than challenging for the win. I struggle to see televoters connecting with this as “Oblivion” isn’t attention grabbing and the chorus just isn’t strong enough. A very narrow path exists if the final lineup is heavily tilted towards uptempo/kitschy songs, giving Margaret a strong USP.

As mentioned, I think Ingrid’s odds are too short for a song that falls into a genre which historically has not connected with Nordic viewers. The tip this week will be going to “Woman Show.” I trust that they will get the staging right and create a great party atmosphere that viewers will love.

Recommended bet:

Back Mathilde SPZ feat. Chris Archer and Slam Dunk – “Woman Show” To Qualify @2.0 (Unibet)

Another season of Eurovision madness comes to a close tonight in Liverpool’s M&S Bank Arena. Let’s take a look at some of the markets that are on offer.

Outright market: It’s very hard to look beyond Sweden and Loreen making history tonight. Loreen is in a class of her own this year which was clearly shown in her semi final performance. The streaming data for Tattoo is unprecedented and smashing all sorts of records. It is already charting at #69 on the Spotify global top 50 chart with 1.7m streams. The only other entry to have done so before the grand final was Arcade which reached around #180. Many had expected Finland to gain momentum after Tuesday’s semi final with some suggestions he could even be market leader but that has clearly failed to come to fruition. I still expect a televote win for Finland but the data suggests the gap needed against Sweden won’t be near enough to take the victory and that’s without even taking into account how jurors should be rating Kaarija’s vocals . He follows a number of excellent vocalists (Blanca, Loreen, Albina, Marco and Alika) which exposes him even more. I’m pretty confident we will be heading off to Stockholm/Malmo next year!

Top 5: The more interesting question this year is who will complete the top 5.

Ukraine is a huge question mark this year. There are huge red flags with this package in terms of how it could connect with the public: an American sounding song, performers wearing glasses and overpowering projections. In any other year I could see this getting a bottom 5 televote score. Nevertheless, the huge diaspora means Ukraine has a large number of free points. They could get 1 or 2 token jury 12s from the Baltic nations or Poland too.

Israel has a great running order and ok-ish streaming numbers. The slick MTV award show style staging means I expect it to get a top 6 jury score. Noa was vocally good last night too. I have been a bit sceptical about Israel’s televote score. Some elements of the Israeli package come across as a bit too “try hard” whilst Chanel and Eleni were seen to be more fun. Although I think she will get a strong televote in Southern Europe and scoring very well across both constituencies.

Spain disappointed me a little bit by not improving their staging from Benidorm Fest. However, Blanca is vocally as exceptional as always and captivating. There will be an ad break after Spain and Blanca’s ending high note can create an impactful moment. I predict this will come in the jury top 3 but I have always been sceptical about the televote. I expect that Northern and Western Europe will blank this in the televote so top 5 could be just out of reach.

France’s staging comes across as static and La Zarra somewhat unconvincing. However La Zarra was at her best last night managing to hit the high note convincingly. There’s a lot of data suggesting people really like this song, although the running order may hamper the televote slightly. This is on the edge of top 5 for me.

Norway has had excellent streaming data, even beating out Finland once you exclude domestic streaming numbers. Alessandra was a bit off last night but managed to rescue the performance. I think this is one for the casuals and should be getting a very strong televote with jurors also liking the radio friendliness element of the song.

Italy‘s performance at the jury final was as excellent as ever. There were concerns Italy would be dumped early in the running order but has been given slot 11. Marco Mengoni should be in the jury top 5 with this classy number. Some have questioned Italy’s televote potential this year but I have long argued the contrary. Italy usually has a reliable televote and Mengoni is a charismatic good-looking performer that can get votes from middle aged women. I have this one making it into the top 5.

Top 10: I think the market this year is pretty accurate on the top 10.

During the rehearsal period I had been laying Austria for top 10. The staging concept isn’t crazy enough to light up the televote but also not jury friendly enough to score highly there. The #1 slot hampers its score even more as it is quite reliant on televote.

Belgium is one which seems to have gone really down well with Western Europe and the middle aged demographic that enjoys 90s style music. It’s very well sung too and the Eurojury score suggests to me that there is potential for this to get a decent jury score. I have this one in my top 10.

Croatia has been the hot topic of conversation for many after their semi final performance. They have done very well with Youtube views, although much of their traffic is concentrated in the Balkan region. I can see this getting a Konstrakta style result by dominating the region’s televote and getting votes from casuals who perceive the contest to be crazy. 180-200 televote points could be enough for top 10.

Armenia is the odds on top 10 that I could see miss out. Whilst it’s a personal favourite of mine I can see it getting lost in a 26 song lineup. There are other big jury hitters and it feels a bit too anonymous to get a significant televote.

Top 15: Lithuania‘s odds for top 15 seem a bit too long for me. Monika’s entry is the only ballad in the 2nd half. Jurors should be liking this and Lithuania usually has a decent televote because of their diaspora.

Australia on the other hand seems too short to me. It doesn’t really have a great running order. Jurors may like that it’s competent but televoters have much more to turn to.

Slovenia doesn’t really have the best stats either and I could see this just missing out with Croatia eating up the balkan vote.

Last Place: The UK’s Mae Muller was much better last night in front of a roaring crowd. The UK has some of the strongest visuals this year but the vocals do sound empty and makes the song loose some oomph. I think this should get enough points to avoid last. Portugal is my tip for last place. Again there’s not a lot for jurors to like here and a poor running order means they get very lost. I can only really see France, Switzerland and Spain giving this televote points.

Good luck to everyone tonight and here are my final prediction and tips:

1. Sweden
2. Finland
3. Israel
4. Italy
5. Norway

6-10: Ukraine, France, Spain, Croatia and Belgium

Recommended tips:

Back Italy Top 5 @ 2.75 (Boyle Sports)

Back Italy Top Big 5 @ 3.25 (888 Sport)

Back Portugal Last Place @ 5.0 (Unibet)

Lay Australia Top 15 @ 1.8 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Lithuania Top 15 @ 3.6 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Croatia to beat Austria @1.83 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Back Ukraine for Ireland televote 12 points @2.38 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Back Belgium to beat Armenia @2.0 (Bet365)

Back Armenia to NOT BE IN TOP 10 @2.15 (Unibet)

Back Ukraine Over 0.5 Jury 12s @2.0 (Bet365)

Back Sweden, Finland, Israel, Norway, Italy and Croatia top 10 finish @ 4.07 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Back Sweden to Win, Finland Top 3, Israel Top 5, Norway & France Top 10 @5.0 (StarSports)

After a 10/10 prediction on Tuesday night the pressure is on for one of the most unpredictable semi finals in recent memory that will test the true strength of diaspora & bloc voting. Let’s take a look at the contenders.

Safe Qualifiers:

Austria have definitely improved with a crowd in their presence. I am still really unsure about the concept they have gone for. They are definitely aiming for the jury vote by toning down the novelty aspect although I think there’s only so far they can reach with the jury side of the scoreboard. Vocally they are fine but the operatic part remains a bit weak. It is still good enough to sail through and challenge for the semi win but I am of the view that a top 10 placing in the final now looks unlikely.

Australia have the pimp slot which alone is enough to qualify in this semi. They are bringing the energy but I am slightly underwhelmed. Some have said this can win the semi but I have doubts about how voteable the band is and how well the genre can travel. The entry works well with a crowd and combined with the running order should be enough for top 3 in this semi.

Armenia are bringing some of the best camerawork we have seen at the contest this year. There are differing views about the newly added dance break but I think it fits with the package. Brunette is vocally excellent and captivating as a performer. The package as a whole creates a really dreamy pleasant atmosphere. In the final juries will eat this up and I am now expecting a top 10 placing. I do think they may miss out on top 3 here because of the running order.

Cyprus have brought a very competent and slick package to the contest this year. Andrew Lambrou’s vocals are good although he is supported by heavy pre-recorded backing vocals at times. I am quite underwhelmed by the staging as it comes across as very basic to me. There is no big “wow” moment, which I was expecting. There were hopes that this could win the semi but I have been laying it for top 3.

Slovenia is an entry which I can see score well across East and West particularly with younger voters. They don’t really have any staging but the band doesn’t require any with their charisma. I thought their performance at the jury show was a bit underwhelming and lacked some energy. I expect that when it matters they will deliver. I think if they deliver on the night this can make the top 3 by scoring well across all regions.

Lithuania is pretty much a copy and paste of the national selection staging with some new LED content elevating the package. Monika and her backing singers are charismatic and vocally excellent as ever. The entry as a whole is very feel good. A good running order and diaspora allies means this will sail through to the final. This does have the potential to surprise and do better than expected.

Belgium really excelled in front of a crowd. Just as I predicted the Brits went wild for this. It is very fun and after a run of somewhat dreary songs Gustaph really gets the party going. I imagine this will be a favourite of the middle aged demographic. Definitely one that will be sailing through.

Poland started the season being an outside shot for qualification. Blanka’s national selection performance was poor. However, there has been a significant improvement since then. She has managed to improve her vocal and the team has ensured there is a sufficient backing vocal. It is clear that the TVP staging director is trying to make the performance a meme with some of the visual effects and TikTok views show the strategy is working.

Borderline contenders:

Georgia has been drifting in recent days and now is at a price of 1.34 to qualify. Previously I have tweeted that I thought the price of 1.2 was too short. Iru is an excellent vocalist but the main issue is the song. The lyrics are essentially a load of nonsense making the song a “wall of noise” essentially. The staging is also a bit static but does have some good moments. Ultimately in a weak semi I think this is competent enough to make it to the final with the help of a few friends.

Denmark was a country that I thought had potential when pictures of rehearsals were first released. The staging concept itself is cute and reminds me of Armenia 2022. Reiley’s vocal is pretty poor at times although I don’t think it’s as bad as others have stated. Unfortunately, I think this is just too beige and anonymous to stand out from slot 1. It also relies heavily on a teenage girl vote which I think will go for Slovenia instead.

Estonia is an entry which I had as a likely NQ pre-rehearsal but the faltering of others has firmly put it back into contention. The staging has been elevated since Eesti Laul with some really nice LED content. Alika is vocally excellent as ever but has added in some jerky movements in the song which I think is not needed. This is competent enough to qualify although I think from slot 4 it will be forgotten about by the end. Those seeking something competent and accessible may turn to stronger packages from Armenia, Cyprus and Lithuania. Female ballads also have a relatively poor televote record at Eurovision. I’m still keeping this one out of my 10.

Greece seemed to be a sure qualifier before rehearsals started with a great running order and a plentiful number of allies to support it. However since the first rehearsal things seemed to unravel. His 1st rehearsal in full was leaked with a barrage of criticism ensuing from both eurofans and Greek media. However at last nights evening preview show Victor turned it around. Vocally he was good and performed the song well. He does come across as nervous but I think this plays into his hands. Many viewers will admire Victor for going out on stage at the young age of 16 and visible nerves could strengthen this feeling, something which happened with Blanche in 2017 (i’m not comparing the songs at all). Only a fool would rule out Greece in contention with the amount of points they start out with.

Albania is one which has really improved during the rehearsal period. Sacha Jean Baptise’s team has done a good job with making the entry look good on camera. Albina is an excellent vocalist. The first minute of the song appears to be a bit too dark but the instrumental break is very fun. The last 2 minutes comes across as wholesome too and the family aspect may play well with older viewers. The main issue with this country’s qualification prospects is the lack of diaspora countries in this semi. This is an entry which really only appeals to diaspora and Albania is separated from their closest allies (Italy, Switzerland and Croatia). One point in Albania’s favour is the introduction of rest of the world voting. The group are from Kosovo and I believe the semi final is being aired live there. I anticipate they will get the 12 points from this vote which could push them over the line.

I am very confident about the 8 safe qualifiers but the final 2 are ones which I am linger over. It will likely come down to the performances on the night but my final 10 are:

Austria, Armenia, Cyprus, Lithuania, Belgium, Slovenia, Poland, Australia, Georgia and Greece

Recommended tips:

Back Denmark to non-qualify @ 1.83 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Back Romania, San Marino, Iceland and Denmark to non-qualify @ 2.28 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Back Romania, San Marino, Iceland, Denmark and Estonia to non-qualify @4.56

Back Slovenia top 3 @ 3.3 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Austria, Australia, Cyprus, Lithuania, Belgium, Slovenia, Poland and Armenia to Qualify @1.84 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Eurovision week kicks off tonight in Liverpool with the 1st Semi Final. Having watched Monday’s evening preview show via a feed let’s take a look at the runners and riders.

Safe Qualifiers:

Finland brought the house down last night and won the new “Eurovision Audience Poll” in a landslide. The staging of the first half of the song has definitely been elevated since UMK. Being placed in the pimp slot also cements itself as the frontrunner for the semi win. In terms of whether it can win the final, I argue that the new performance is lowering Finland’s jury potential. The aggression has been amped up a bit since UMK. Kaarija’s vocal also sounds really exposed particularly in the final half of the song even with the aid of a strong backing vocal. The staging of the second half feels like it has become too kitschy. I struggle to see how this can get the jury score needed to push it over the line for the Eurovision final win.

Sweden have essentially copy and pasted the Mello staging. Whilst there were concerns about how this would work with the smaller box, the feel of the performance is very similar to Mello. In fact I would argue that the bridge is stronger in the ESC performance. Loreen’s vocals were shaky in the 1st dress rehearsal but in front of a crowd she delivered with emotion. This is the clear front runner to win the crystal microphone with challengers so far having failed to pose a threat. I have both Finland and Sweden green in my SF1 winner book just in case Finland comes across as too much for first time viewers.

Norway was pretty much a copy and paste of MGP with some better lighting. Alessandra delivered on the whistle note too. Israel was the first wow moment of the night in my opinion. Noa Kirel was vocally fine but the package as a whole felt like a world class MTV performance. Czechia have faced a barrage of criticism throughout the pre party circuit but when it matters they have delivered. They have gone down the feminist themed staging route which creates a dystopian/Handmaid’s Tale vibe and a defiant feeling is exuded by the performers. This is back in contention for top 10 and with a nice draw they could achieve a Russian Woman style result.

Likely Qualifiers:

Moldova is one performance that didn’t meet my expectations. The staging seemed fine but underwhelming at the same time. It came across as too dark to me when it should really be fun. It’s noticeable that the audience was quite muted. It performed poorly with the Eurovision Audience Poll, going against my expectations as this is an entry which I thought would go down well with UK casuals.

Serbia have definitely upgraded their staging from the national selection. The entry comes across as cool and the video game references are nice. There are definitely valid concerns that this could come across as too aggressive but I think there will be enough people who love it to pick up the phone. Serbia has enough friends and a great televote track record in semi finals, having never finished below 11th.

Borderline and the rest:

Switzerland impressed me with Remo having one of the strongest vocals. The staging is very slick, typical of Sacha Jean Baptise’s work. I am disappointed that she didn’t really focus on the theme of the song when creating the staging. There is lot for jurors to like here but the question is will televoters connect? I think in a 15 song semi final lineup being safe and accessible can help. Voters seeking something competent and safe may turn towards this especially as it comes straight after the crazy Croatia. The message of the song could also give it a televote boost. This is in my 10 but not safe.

Croatia is one which is difficult to predict. It feels very high risk high reward. It could totally fall flat with viewers and NQ or be a hit and make the top 10 of the grand final televote. I have this in my 10 because I think there will be enough people who will love it. It’s memorable and novelty but has a serious message at the same time.

Portugal is one which I was nervous about after the 2nd rehearsal clip was posted. The staging seemed bare but in full the “less is more” mantra seems to have worked. Mimicat is a good performer but at times makes aggressive facial expressions in the same vain as Lucie Jones. However, this feels quintessentially Portuguese and I think there will be enough viewers who enjoy this genre. Although, 1.45 to qualify is a bit short for me.

Netherlands has definitely improved when comparing to the pre-party performances. The staging is nice but incredibly dull. It creates a moody/funeral atmosphere which I don’t think is going to resonate well with viewers. The performers don’t have great chemistry and whilst their vocal is ok, the backing vocal in the final chorus is incredibly loud.

Malta is fun but also quite awkward/amateurish at times. It reminds me of Latvia 2022 which was also put in the dreaded slot #2. It’s enjoyable but not memorable enough in my view, although this would be my pick for a shock qualifier. Azerbaijan looks nice on screen but coming after Loreen is a difficult task. It may connect with older viewers saving it from last. Latvia’s performance was enjoyable but it’s not going to connect with televoters, which is a shame as it is a very credible entry. Ireland is my pick for last place with some nice X Factor winner staging but a poor vocal from the lead singer.

My 10 qualifiers for tonight are: Finland, Sweden, Israel, Norway, Czechia, Moldova, Serbia, Switzerland, Portugal, Croatia

Top 3 for this semi is an interesting market. I’m of the view that it’s easier for Norway to finish top 5 in the final televote than top 3 here. Only 2 entries have finished in the televote top 3 of a semi since 2013 (Alexander Rybak and The Roop). Moreover, Alessandra faces tough competition from the same region. Whilst I think Czechia is strong the package seems to me that it will fare stronger with juries. I will go for Israel to complete the top 3.

Recommended bets:

Netherlands to Not Qualify @2.0 (Betfair Sportsbook) – already tipped @2.25 (Unibet)

Netherlands, Ireland, and Latvia to Not Qualify @2.74 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Israel Top 3 in Semi Final 1 @2.46 (Betfair Exchange)

Whilst we wait for the 2023 pre-party circuit to kick off and data from Eurojury to come in let’s take a look at the runner and riders for Eurovision 2023.

Sweden: It’s no secret that I have been a big backer of Sweden from the moment I was luckily able to view the rehearsals on a Thursday early evening. I’ve already spent a lot of time talking about Sweden on Twitter but for me it’s in a league of it’s own compared to anything else this. It’s contemporary, cinematic and epic whilst filling you with emotions at the same time. Even its biggest critics would acknowledge that it is likely going to be a runaway jury winner this May.

I think that concerns about it’s televote score are over-exaggerated. This is the best package and it’s visual quality means that viewers should be rewarding this, in the same vain as Russia 2016. The song itself is on its way to becoming a big hit charting across Europe already meaning televoters will be familiar with it. In some way it follows the footsteps of Lena’s “Satellite” which already became a radio hit before the contest.

Some commentators have argued Tattoo doesn’t fit recent winners as it lacks a cultural identity. Whilst I think this is a good point, the package as a whole feels authentic and raw to me with the nomadic bridge bringing a cultural aspect to the entry. Unless another country has a “Jamala moment” during rehearsals I envisage that Loreen will be making Eurovision history.

Ukraine: With the geopolitical situation constantly changing I think it’s important to ensure that you keep Ukraine as a green in your book. Ukraine have drifted recently and that may be down to Maria Sur’s lower than expected placing at Melfest. Although I think her result was telling the context of Melfest is different to ESC of course. Even if Ukraine loses a lot of its voters from last year I think it’s pretty much guaranteed a lot of televote 12s from certain countries. Much of this is down to the huge diaspora that exists across the continent rather than a sympathy factor, which I am sure will also play a part. Another issue is that in any other year I do think Ukraine would get a good jury score. Heart of Steel is slick and contemporary which jurors will like. The closest entry to this in recent years is Belgium 2022 which placed 13th with the jury in the grand final, but Heart of Steel is a much more professional package. It is difficult to say if they can win until we get closer to May.

Finland: I imagine that Finland will be in the top 2 of the televote at the final but whether it can win will come down to the jury tally. Precedent for entries in this sort of category suggests that it probably will fall short. Cha Cha Cha is divisive and jurors won’t like the song structure. Plus during UMK he wasn’t really singing a lot of the song live. Although some jurors may reward the artistry and uniqueness of the package. Ukraine’s televote score may also prevent Finland from being able to get a high enough televote to challenge. At the moment I see this aiming for top 3 rather than a win but I am open to changing my mind after we get some Eurojury results.

Norway: Alessandra’s momentum seems to have died down a little bit with Norway being overshadowed by Sweden in terms of streaming and radio play. I still think this will do well on both sides of the scoreboard. Alessandra is a likeable performer and jurors should reward the song’s radio friendliness. The package’s nordic/viking identity should attract televoters too. Top 10 and can achieve 4th-5th as a ceiling.

Israel: I have followed Noa Kirel’s career over the last 6 years but this song just doesn’t do it for me. The production feels messy with the entry feeling like 5 songs in 1. However it has clearly been written for a stage show , particularly the last 30 seconds. Kirel’s team are clearly throwing a lot of money at this and I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a price crash (Cyprus 2018, Azerbaijan 2019) during the rehearsals. Televoters across the east and west will like this I imagine. I’m less confident about the jury but a slick stage show may elevate this allowing it to reach an Eleni jury style placing (7th). Overall, 5th isn’t out of reach.

Czechia: I have been very optimistic about Czechia this year. When Vesna dropped their music video I tipped this at 101.0 (each way) and it shortened to 11.5. After the live performance it drifted out but has shortened a little bit again. My Sister’s Crown has: an impactful chorus, a powerful message, a strong visual aesthetic and charismatic performers. If they can get the staging right I think this will score well with both jurors and televote. The package has an authentic regional identity but at the same time is accessible to all. This entry will live or die by the staging and if they get it right, this could be the one where we see a “Jamala moment’ in rehearsals but could crash and burn otherwise.

UK: I was very critical about the UK after Mae Muller’s release but I have softened my stance a bit. This is a modern, radio friendly and fun song but nothing special really. The UK couldn’t have asked for a better draw with the host entry closing the show. I imagine the audience will lift the roof off the arena. Jurors should reward this package if Mae Muller performs it well because of it being contemporary. The hiring of one of Chanel’s dancers as a choreographer does suggest they have a good staging plan. I am more concerned about the televote as it fights against Norway and Israel in the same category but the running order should help it in this area. 13th-18th is my current estimate.

Spain: Blanca Paloma is arguably one of the strongest vocalists this year. Jurors should love the: vocals, authenticity of this package and excellent staging. I envisage this will be in the jury top 3 and a surprise jury win can’t be ruled out. “Voila” has been used as a reference point but I am sceptical about Eaea’s televote potential. Whilst it does have a strong national identity if feels divisive and possibly inaccessible. For example, I can’t really see this scoring televote points in the Nordic region. 6th-10th would be my guess here.

Austria: When WTHIE was released I said this could be the “fanwank” of the season. Whilst there is the potential for this to happen I am much more positive now. WTHIE is a genius concept and an addictive song. I imagine that casual fans will really love this. Jurors should be a lot less supportive but they could resonate with the message of the song if it comes across well and reward the artistry. However, this is an entry where staging is everything and I think it’s difficult to translate the song onto a live stage. Austria’s place on the scoreboard will come down to the staging and if done right top 10 is on the cards.

Italy: Marco Mengoni hasn’t been talked much about this season. People may be bored of this classical Italian male act we’ve been accustomed to in recent years. I still think this will score well with both jury and televote to get a low top 10 result overall.

Switzerland/Netherlands/Cyprus: In my view there’s room for at least one of these sadder songs in the top 10. I have been more optimistic than most on Cyprus. The performer is charismatic with a strong vocal and well produced song that should be loved by the jury. Switzerland too has a strong vocal and the production of the song has an Austria 2018 element to it. If it makes the final then jury top 5 is on the cards. Netherland’s potential will come down to how the pair connect and perform, which I am slightly sceptical about.

Other markets:

I’ll have an article out with qualification tips after the running order is posted, but today saw Unibet post the first SF odds of the season. Whilst not really a value bet, I see Lithuania as a safe option due to the number of allies and disapora it has. In terms of top 10 I think Czech Republic and Italy offer value bets as they are 2 entries I can see scoring good enough with both jury and televote. Moldova has brought an entry this year which is catchy, memorable and has a visual gimmick. I imagine this will get a very good televote across the continent. I have been laying France for top 10 as I think it’s unlikely we’ll see more than 2 big 5 entries in the top 10 and it probably struggles on the televote side.

Recommended bets:

Back Lithuania to Qualify @1.4 (Unibet)

Back Cyprus to Qualify @1.5 (Unibet)

Back Czech Republic Top 10 @2.06 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Italy Top 10 @2.2 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Moldova Top 10 @3.05 (Betfair Exchange)

Another season of Mello madness comes to a close tonight at Friends Arena, as 12 competitors (or 11 support acts + 1 participant as some would say) battle it out for the Mello trophy. 

There’s no doubt of course who will be crowned the winner tonight, Loreen. From the moment I watched her first rehearsal on a gloomy Thursday late afternoon I knew we had our Mello winner and the frontrunner for the ESC title. For me it’s now just a question of Loreen’s televote at Melfest. All metrics indicate she should landslide this and it will be interesting to see how close she comes to Anders Bagge and Tusse’s historic numbers. 

The fight for 2nd and 3rd is much more unpredictable. I have previously tipped Smash Into Pieces for top 3 and still recommend this. SIP have a USP and an overall strong package with their futuristic staging. Jurors should be rewarding the credibility and clean vocal from the band. Moreover, the song is accessible and palatable enough to prevent jurors from marking it down. Their Spotify numbers have been excellent, as they are the 2nd most streamed act beating acts such as Marcus & Martinus and Theoz. I am expecting the band to be 2nd-3rd in televote and 2nd-4th in jury, which should be enough for a top 3 slot. The twins slick package and modern song is almost certainly going to be rewarded by international jurors. However, I would not be surprised if they receive an underwhelming televote. Their streaming numbers have been a lot lower than expected, which was also the case for Bluffin last year that suffered an underwhelming televote too. Their support is also concentrated with the younger groups. Maria Sur has a USP being the only ballad in the final and could get a nice jury score just based off this but the unoriginality and poor lyrics could see her marked down. Televote wise her momentum has completely stalled with poor streaming numbers and the media narrative being dominated by Loreen’s return. 

Last place is a tricky market this year. Both Mariette and Paul Rey should be at the bottom of the televote with poor streaming and polling numbers to show for it. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mariette scored well with the international jury. She performs the song well and it has an anthemic/ light gospel touch that the Melfest jury has really appreciated the last few years. Paul Rey’s number too has an anthemic quality and modern production that can see it get middling scores from jurors that might be enough to push it above last. On the other hand, Tone should be down at the bottom of the juror rankings. Her streaming numbers have been very weak this year especially considering her song last year was a hit. In the first heat she almost beat JHF and friends in the audience poll but in the final she dropped to 10th. Tone is the act that I think will consistently score low across both jury and public vote.

There are a number of H2H and points markets available on Unibet that are interesting. Panetoz have been given an early slot in the running order. For an act in their genre, their streaming numbers are relatively poor and there really isn’t much for a juror to be loving here. The top 5 does look solid this year but there is probably room for an upset. Kiana is one act that I see can pose a challenge. Her song is modern and the overall package is slick. Jurors will like the fact that she is so young yet able to perform very well. Her streaming numbers have improved a lot too suggesting momentum with the public. JHF will likely do well on the televote because of his personal vote but the messiness of the visual package could see it pushed down by jurors and narrowly miss out on the top 5. 

Recommended bets:

Back Smash into Pieces Top 3 @ 1.8 (Unibet)

Back Smash into Pieces Top 2 @ 4.0 (Unibet)

Back Tone Sekelius Last Place @ 2.75 (Unibet)

Back Panetoz Under 53.5 points @2.65 (Unibet)

Back Maria Sur Under 110.5 Points @1.42 (Unibet)

Back Kiana Top 5 @6.0 (Unibet)

This year’s Melodifestivalen heats come to a close in Malmo arena, the place which hosted Eurovision 10 years ago. Let’s take a look at the final 7 contenders for 2023. 

1. Kiana – “Where Did You Go”: This is a very modern uptempo number being performed by a likeable 15 year old debutant. It has a British sound very reminiscent of Becky Hill’s hits. I enjoy the staging of this. The pink colours and graphics stand out and Kiana even borrows an element of staging from Alessandra’s “Queen of Kings”. I imagine this will be a favourite of the younger groups and the older age groups may admire Kiana’s display of confidence at such a young age. A contender for DTF in my opinion. 
2. Signe & Hjördis – Edelweiss: This is a pleasant number but there isn’t really much more to say about this. The girls are likeable but also seem completely out of their depth. They look nervous and the package just falls flat. A contender for last.
3. Smashed Into Pieces – Six Feet Under: The band bring a pop rock number that has elements of Blind Channel but more ESC/Mello friendly. They have a futuristic staging concept and perform this very well bringing energy to the stage. The package as a whole is palatable and accessible enough to score well across all age groups. Another contender for DTF.
4. Mariette – One Day: Mariette returns with a different style of song to her previous entries. “One Day” is an uplifting anthemic song with a Disney like quality to it. It is a very positive number and Mariette performs this very well. The staging creates a feeling of warmth. She should be scoring highly with the older groups tonight, but the question is can this get enough support from the younger categories to pull her across the line? 
5. Emil Henrohn – Mera mera mera: This is a party anthem and I am sure it will be a big hit in Sweden for the following weeks to come. My biggest issue here is with the performer. Emil comes across as amateurish and not really ready for the stage. The performance should feel lively but comes across as static. However, watching the dress rehearsal showed that he has a lot of fans especially those in the younger groups. He may sneak into the top 4. 
6. Axel Schylström – Gorgeous: Axel has a power ballad that reminds me a lot of John Lundvik’s “My Turn.” He has an excellent vocal and is joined by a gospel like choir in the final minute of the song. Axel is singing about his accident and both the staging and his postcard also convey the message. Axel conveys his emotion really well. Earlier in the week I thought this could be a surprise contender for DTF, knowing how well Swedes react to a package with a narrative. However, the song itself doesn’t seem strong enough. Moreover, the audience poll suggests that the audience just isn’t connecting with this one. 
7. Loreen – Tattoo: All accredited media were tantalisingly sat waiting for this rehearsal to be uploaded on Thursday early evening and Loreen truly delivered. “Tattoo” is modern, unique and emotional. It has elements of Euphoria combined with her recent single “Neon Lights” and verses that are influenced by ABBA. The stage show is captivating and it makes you feel like you’re watching a blockbuster film. The last minute is very powerful and grips you as Loreen belts out letting out her emotions. This is a clear frontrunner to win Melodifestivalen and yes the frontrunner to win Eurovision 2023 as of now. There are of course some things I have concerns about. Loreen isn’t really connecting with the camera for the majority of the song, but this was the case for Euphoria too. The performance as a whole is also very intense. The last minute in particular can feel overwhelming. However, the audience poll was a surprise for me. It shows that this isn’t too much for Swedes and is connecting, which bodes well for both it’s Melfest and ESC chances. 

Recommended bets:

Back Smash into Pieces to DTF @ 2.3 (Unibet)

Back Signe & Hjordis last place @ 1.55 (Unibet)

Back Sweden to win Eurovision 2023 @ 2.75 (Betfair Sports) 

Tonight brings us the first Super Saturday of the Eurovision season where 7 countries will select their entry for Eurovision 2023.

Italy – Sanremo 2023:

I backed and tipped Marco Mengoni @3.5 before the contest started and it looks like he is well on track to win. He is currently leading the overall standings after winning the press jury over the first 2 nights and pulling off a surprise win on covers night. Mengoni has performed extremely well with both social media and streaming statistics. A spanner was thrown into the works on Thursday when it was revealed that Ultimo had actually won the televoting that night. However, his fans would have likely been motivated by his poor score from the press. Moreover, his fanbase are very passionate so it is easier for him to win in a 28 song field than a 5 song superfinal. When it comes to the superfinal the press jury will likely rank Ultimo 4th or 5th preventing him from winning. Mr Rain has become a surprise contender storming the streaming charts as well as demonstrating strong support on both Facebook and Instagram. Despite this, the press jury ranked him 17th out of 28 meaning his path to victory is very narrow. Lazza has the best song for Eurovision in my opinion and is currently #1 on the Spotify chart. He looks set to be a lock for the superfinal. Lazza is arguably gaining momentum but probably doesn’t have enough steam int he tank to win. Top 3 looks a better bet here as he did relatively well with the press jury and should be getting a strong televote. Mengoni is the act that can score most consistently across the 3 constituencies. He has already shown that he can win all 3 (winning the press on night 2, the demoscopic jury on night 3 and the televote on night 4.) The threat of an Ultimo win can also encourage the press jurors to rank Marco first to stop Ultimo, who they have a historic dislike of.

Recommended bet:

Back Marco Mengoni to win @ 1.4 (Bet365)

Back Lazza top 3 @ 2.1 (Bet365)

Denmark: Dansk Melodi Grand Prix

Denmark will be hoping to turn fortunes around after 2 years of non-qualifying. This year’s selection is a slight improvement from last year.

There seems to be 2 main contenders to win. EYJAA are an Icelandic duo living in Denmark whose song, “I was gonna marry him” is a pleasant folk pop number with a classic Eurovision key change. On the face of it, this does seem like something that Denmark would send.

Reiley is a TikTok star from the Faroe Islands who is singing a modern uptempo track, “Breaking my Heart.” The producers have placed EYJAA in slot 2 and Reiley in slot 8. Although songs have won from #2 in DMGP before this is arguably a clear sign of intent from producers that they want Reiley in Liverpool. Both artists seem to be inexperienced so could have faltering live performances. Residents in the Faroe Islands can vote which does give an advantage to Reiley as there will likely be a strong regional vote, like there was in 2019 when an act from Greenland took part. I also worry about how EYJAA’s entry will be staged as a song like this could end up feeling empty. The presence of a jury in the superfinal means they should be rewarding Reiley’s modern track which is why I am giving him the advantage right now. In terms of the top 3 market Soren seems like value to me. He has a pleasant Danish language ballad in the penultimate slot. I imagine this will have intimate staging that can connect to the audience. It doesn’t seem difficult to sing so could be a shock winner if the main 2 contenders don’t live up to expectations.

Back Reiley to win @3 (Unibet)

Back Soren Top 3 @4.5 (Unibet)

Estonia: Eesti Laul

I haven’t got involved with this selection due to a lack of value in the markets. Alika’s ballad written by Eurovision winners should take this in my opinion. Her semi final performance was great and seemed like it was in a league of its own. The issue for her is the 100% televote superfinal where voters may opt for something that grabs their attention more. Estonia does have a history of sending solo male acts and this may continue with OLLIE. He has performed well on Spotify and is winning polls on local Estonian sites. Alika on the other hand is even failing to win the annual artist poll which asks the other entrants to give points. An artistic song like hers should be winning here. On Alika’s side is the fact that Estonian voters do tend to be conservative and the high televoting cost skews the selectorate to be older, favouring entries that are more accessible and competent. The key here will be the 3rd superfinalist. If someone like Bedwetters makes it this strengthens the case for Alika, whilst Sissi or Anett and Freddi would make OLLIE stand out more.

Prediction:

1. Alika 2. OLLIE 3. Bedwetters

Lavtia: Supernova

A selection which I haven’t really been paying any attention to but there are odds available for those living outside the UK. Sudden Lights comfortably won the televote in the semi final. Their entry is performed very well with the staging elevating a song which is quite mediocre. It is a competent performance that jurors should reward too. Patricia’s “Hush” seems to be too divisive on the other hand.

Recommended bet:

Back Sudden Lights to win @2 (Betsson)

Another year of Norwegian madness comes to a close in Trondheim Spektrum, with 9 artists battling it out for a ticket to Liverpool under an all new format.

The market thinks there are 4 winner contenders and I agree. Let’s take a look at them now.

JONE – Ekko inni meg: An uptempo EDM number that has been a huge hit in Norway, currently charting at #7 on the Spotify charts with a peak of #4. This feels very Norweigan and will definitely be a favourite of younger voters. Having suffered from an injury, JONE’s semi final performance felt static to me with the female dancers carrying the performance. It is also clear that autotune is giving JONE a lot of help. Being buried in slot #1 and jurors should handily stop this from winning, but a top 4 spot is expected.

Atle Petersen – Masterpiece: This was a successful SF3 qualifier tip. Atle is bringing an emotional well produced ballad in stark contrast to his 2021 entry. I was impressed by how much Atle elevated this live and how he connected to the audience conveying his emotions. The staging is also impressive with a nice light show. Atle clearly is one of the more well known artists and has an established fanbase. He is a favourite of the older demographic having topped facebook polls in Norway. Jurors should also be able to respect his vocal and the production of the song. A dark horse to win considering he can score well in both constituencies.

Alessandra Mele – Queen of Kings: A surpriser outsider from the start who is now the official favourite on Betfair. Queen of Kings has gone viral TikTok and charted internationally, with the wave of hype hitting the domestic market too as the song is currently sitting at #5 on the Spotify charts. Running order suggests NRK want this to go to ESC, banking on it’s international virality. How jurors will mark this is an interesting question. Recent history points us to Melfest 2022 where a similar sounding song, Klara H – Run to the Hills was also a huge charting success but scored poorly with jurors. Alessandra’s vocal also comes across as shaky. Jurors could end up dethroning the Queen of Kings.

Ulrikke – Honestly: Norway’s representative for the Eurovision that never was returns with a contemporary nordic ballad much in the vain of her previous entry. “Honestly”, is very calculated with the performance also feeling like it’s ticking off as many Eurovision boxes as it can. Despite this, Ulrikke is a class performer in a league of her own compared to the rest of the artists. It’s obvious she isn’t making use of the autotune feature. Ulrikke’s PR machine is also working in overdrive with a front cover in Norway’s biggest magazine this weekend as well as several TV and radio interviews. The narrative of her opportunity being stolen away from her will likely boost her televote higher and the jurors should certainly reward her competence.

The final will likely be a close run one. Much analysis on Twitter has focused on streaming numbers, although past NFs in Nordic countries have shown us there’s a difference between what people listen to vs what they vote for. Ulrikke is charting at #55 which is significantly better than Attention at the same time which was around #150. NRK want Alessandra to win but I think jurors and a sob story narrative will be enough to push Ulrikke over the line who will score well with both jurors and televote.

Recommended bets:

Back Ulrikke to win @ 2.46 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Atle to win @ 9 (Cool Bet)

The 2023 Eurovision betting season kicks off in Nydalen, Norway with a revamped MGP selection underway. 7 acts will compete in tonight’s heat fighting for 3 spots in the grand final. Let’s take a look at the competitors.

1. Alessandra Mele – “Queen of Kings”

An uptempo Alan Walker like number to kick off the MGP 2023 season. This should be a great opener. It has many similarities to Klara Hammarstrom’s “Run to the Hills” but has a stronger Nordic identity. It should qualify but there are concerns about if Alessandra can pull off being able to sing with little experience. Moreover, there is potential for the staging to be too aggressive.

2. Erik Naess – “Wave”

Strong Avicii vibes from Erik’s entry. Uptempo and anthemic. However it will likely fail to stand out in this diverse 7 song lineup. It also competes with Ulrikke in the anthemic category.

3. Rasmus Thall – Tresko

A TikTok hit waiting to happen was my first thought after listening to Tresko. The new autotune rule will almost certainly aid this entry with all the vocal modulations in the studio track. There is also strong sob story potential with the song being based on Rasmus’s brother who had a life changing accident. Rasmus definitely has the potential to qualify especially as he can capture the youth vote, which is important with an online only vote.

4. Kate Gulbrandsen – Tårer i paradis

A surprisingly very pleasant listen. The vocals combined with violin production create a heavenly atmosphere. If there was a televote I would have thought this could sneak through as it likely to be a favourite with the older demographic. An online vote means this is less likely to happen.

5. Umami Tusanmi – Geronimo

Umami Tsunami are bringing back a late 00’s Justin Timberlake sound. This is an energetic entry but also very dated at the same time. The boys will likely put on a lively show and could capture the teen girl vote, which might be enough.

6. Ulrikke – Honestly

The 2020 champion is back hoping this time to actually make it all the way to ESC. This is a very solid entry in my opinion with stirring lyrics and emotion inducing production. Ulrikke is an excellent performer and should elevate this even more. There are some valid criticisms of this entry. It definitely is very calculated and at times overproduced. In terms of winning MGP, I think Ulrikke is more than likely on track to clinch the trophy again. When thinking about it’s placement at ESC at this point I could see it end up in the range of 10th-15th.

7. JOWST and Byron Williams Jr

The 2017 champion returns with a new vocalist combining techno with jazz. In studio format this seems to be quite a poor entry. However, JOWST is likely to bring good staging. Byron is an experienced charismatic performer who comes across as likeable too. There is definitely a path to the final for this number.

MGP’s new voting system means viewers can only cast 1 vote. This means there will likely be a big range in % of votes between entries at the top and bottom. Ulrikke is the clear standout in this heat and could be on track for 70%+ of the votes, meaning a small % is needed to sneak into the final. It is a difficult heat to call but in terms of value I see JOWST as underpriced. The placing of his entry in the closing slot suggests there will be good staging and Byron Williams’s charisma combined with the running order benefit could be enough for it to qualify.

Recommended bet:

Back JOWST and Byron Williams Jr to Qualify @5.0 (Unibet)

Today was the start of the 2nd rehearsals and I was able to view the rehearsals in full from the online press centre. Let’s take a look at the performers from today.

Albania: The camera angles were all over the place for Albania, particularly in the final minute of the song. Her vocal was quite weak at times. The choreography is also very weird. Nevertheless, with some work this should get through this weak semi final but top 10 outright is out of the question.

Latvia: This was performed relatively well. There is quite a nice saxophone break which is a good visual shot. Latvia is slightly hampered by the staging problems. This remains borderline and dependent on how other countries perform.

Lithuania: A very much expected performance from what we have seen in the past. Lithuania is another entry that is quite badly disadvantaged from the staging problems. Another country on the borderline.

Switzerland: This is clearly still a work in progress with some technical issues. The staging itself is quite slick and good camera angles. Marius’s voice was quite rough towards the end though. There is a package here that could work but we will need to wait and see how the issues are ironed out.

Slovenia: A very amateurish performance with a poor vocal. The disco gimmick is unlikely going to save this from the bottom 3.

Ukraine: Kalush is going to wake up the audience after a poor run of songs. Ukraine have brought some excellent graphics and the lighting works well. I do feel like this works better on a smaller stage. The end also feels quite repetitive. There were some poor choices of camera angles. This will do very well with the public regardless of the war context. Overall, the package is just too messy for the jury in my opinion but it should win the semi with ease.

Bulgaria: Competently performed with some pyro bringing it alive. The song is nowhere near good enough but should avoid last place.

Netherlands: An excellent opening shot reminiscent of Sweden 2014. This is a classy performance with nice lighting and camera angles. However, I find it becomes too boring especially towards the end. There are times where S10 is just standing there. It will do very well with the juries but televote is a huge question mark.

Moldova: This has been understaged and feels awkward on the big stage. It feels very cheap and lacks energy at times. It is likely going to perform better with a crowd. I’m less confident about their Q chances compared to others

Portugal: A very intimate and warm performance. The 2nd and 3rd run throughs had much better camera angles. Very classy and should be respected by the juries for sure. It can become dull at times though.

Croatia: They suffered from several technical problems. The staging concept is very poor and the whole package does not work. Chanceless for qualification.

Denmark: Vocals have improved a lot since DMGP. This is a competent performance which should get some jury marks. However it is not exciting enough to set the televote alight. Difficult to see how it gets enough to Q.

Austria: The 1st and 2nd run throughs of this were appalling. Pia was completely drowned out by a backing vocalist and butchered the high notes at the end. Her styling is too dark and both performers being in the halo just makes it static. The vocal did improve slightly in the final run through but a lot of work is going to be needed to help this over the line.

Greece: The press poll winner of the day. Amanda performed this very well and engaged with the camera. There is somewhat of a story being told here with the graphics. The lighting works well with the percussion of the song and they make excellent use of the stage waterfall. The downfall with Greece is the final 30 seconds. There is no wow moment and I expected more. However, it is still a competent performance. I think the market has overreacted because of the standard we have seen today. I do think Greece will be a likely top 3 finish in this semi.

Recommended bet:

Austria to Not Qualify @ 1.75 (Betway)

With the pre-party season over and data from: OGAE, Eurojury and preview shows trickling in it’s time to take a look at who is primed to take the glass trophy in May.

The front runners:

1. Italy

Based on all the information we have, Italy is the front runner to take the trophy in Turin. “Brividi” is a powerful emotional ballad by 2 engaging performers. Although there are a lot of male ballads this year, this is the clear standout with a male duo being the USP. Both performers have a strong vocal that the juries should be rewarding. Current Eurojury results suggest this on track to win or at least finish in the top 2. I am also expecting this to be in the jury top 2 in May. Furthermore, Italy has a record of a strong televote. Since 2016, Italy has never received under 200 televote points. I believe this streak will continue. Brivid has been a huge streaming success, but this is not just isolated to Italy. After their Sanremo win, the song charted in many neighbouring countries. On top of this, the OGAE poll shows that there is a clear love for this song. Most importantly, I think this is the entry that is able to score well across all regions. We can see this with the OGAE and Eurojury poll where Italy is scoring well across all sorts of countries. Some things to consider is the running order. Italy is drawn at #9. Whilst this is slightly early it is important to note Mans won from slot 10 out of 27 songs and Conchita won from slot 11 out of 26. #9 out of 25 should not be a significant barrier. Many have questioned if RAI would want to win again. Both Bologna and Milan had strong bids to host and are eager to host. It is unlikely there would be difficulties with hosting twice in a row. The global success of Maneskin is also likely going to motivate Universal Italia to put work in to replicate this with Mahmood and Blanco.

2. Ukraine

Ukraine is the current odds favourite for the win. I have previously been very sceptical of a Ukraine for various reasons. The idea of a Ukraine win is mainly based on a narrative, however past years have shown the contest does not work like this. On paper jurors should be marking down Ukraine. Shum placed 9th with jurors and that was a much stronger jury-appealing package due to Go_A’s strong vocals and artistic identity. However it hard to ignore that Ukraine will almost certainly be the televote winner. Historically, Ukraine has always been a strong televote nation and combined with the sympathy across Europe they are a shoe-in to win the televote. We may even be looking at a televote record. So it looks like it will come down to how much jury sympathy Ukraine gets. The EBU will not want Ukraine to win. Post-Euphoria they have spent a lot of time and effort into trying to rid ESC of it’s political associations. A Ukraine sympathy win would be a huge step back for the contest’s reputation across the continent. A first half draw could also see Ukraine being given the “honour” of opening. However, Ukraine has held up strong with Eurojury and the nordic preview shows so a win cannot be ruled out.

The chasing pack:

3. United Kingdom

I was initially sceptical of the UK’s chances this year but it has gone up in my estimation. Sam Ryder elevated “SPACE MAN” to new heights at LEP and EIC. He looks like he will follow the path Dami Im took where she elevated an average well produced pop song. The UK is performing very well with Eurojury and looks set to finish in the top 2. If Sam can replicated his pre-party performances I can see this in the jury top 2 alongside Italy. The televote is the biggest question mark for the UK because of it’s past history. Nevertheless, Ryder is the only contestant to have gone on a proper promo tour and he does have his 12m TikTok followers. To my suprise the UK is doing very well on the OGAE poll – a demographic which I did not expect to like the song to the extent the poll suggests. Staging is the biggest question mark for the UK and the only thing leaving me from putting the UK under the front runner section. If done well then there is a path for a British victory, but right now a top 5 result looks more likely.

4. Spain

Spain is a big standout this year, especially as the only uptempo female. Chanel is an exceptional performer and takes SloMo to a whole new level. She has been the start of the pre-party circuit leaving the audience in awe. Furthermore, Chanel is a likeable performer. The slickness of the performance is likely to appeal to juries much like Foureira and Luca Hanni. A 2nd half draw for Spain could also see it placed as a show closer. Spain would have benefitted from participating in the semi finals to gain momentum, like Fuego. However, I expect Spain’s price to crash during rehearsals as the Spanish HoD there will be even more improvements to the Benidorm Fest performance. Casual British punters will most likely love this as well – many of you will remember Barei’s price crash in 2016. All in all, I think a Luca Hanni result is looking possible for Spain this year.

5. Sweden

Sweden is sending it’s first solo female artist to the contest in 8 years with a raw authentic ballad, a marked departure from recent years. After Cornelia’s win Sweden shortened to around 6s. I have grown increasingly sceptical of a Swedish in recent weeks. Cornelia’s vocals have been shaky on the pre-party circuit. Whilst the raspy voice provides an authentic feeling, jurors may mark this down. Sweden is now doing decently well with Eurojury, but Sweden usually overperforms as they have a Melfest live performance advantage. “Hold me closer” is a hard first listen and I have doubts over whether this can connect well across the whole continent in terms of televote. OGAE data shows Sweden is performing less well in the east and it is interesting that there were no eastern jurors at Mello. However, a top 5 finish can’t be ruled out if Sweden gets a 2nd half draw and momentum from the SF.

6. Poland

Ochman has been another star of the pre-party circuit impressing many with his superb vocal consistency. When released as a studio cut many predicted “River” to be a potential ESC winner. However, an underwhelming NF performance caused a price drift. Though Ochman was ill during this and staging changes have been promised. The case for Poland top 5 simply comes down to: jurors being impressed by Ochman’s voice + the Polish diaspora being awakened from their slumber. I agree that Poland is likely to get a very good televote, especially as Ochman is a protege of Spzak. Poland should also be right up there with the jury because of his voice. However, Poland has performed poorly with Eurojury. Some jurors may mark down the song because of it’s disjointedness and how jarring it can be. We also know that jurors aren’t huge fans of an operatic voice (Italy 2015, Estonia 2018). Televote wise, Ochman lacks charisma and struggles to connect with the camera as he closes his eyes throughout his performances. Nevertheless, Poland does have the ability to finish top 6 in both jury and televote.

Best of the rest

Greece – The act which we have the least information about. Whilst the last minute of the song is strong and impactful, the first minute lacks a punch. However, this will probably be up there with the juries. Greece will be one of the most awaited rehearsals with a good stage show promised from Fokas and co. This is probably aiming for lower top 10.

Netherlands – The Common Linnets meets Blanche with this moody country twinged number.The Netherlands has performed exceptionally well with the Nordic preview shows and should be the front runner to win the jury in SF1. I have concerns with how accessible this will be with the public. S10 isn’t the most engaging performer and this moody number may fail to connect with the public. The laser show has been ditched – and I was a big fan of that. This could narrowly miss out on top 10

Australia – This is performing well with EJ and I expect it to do decent enough with the jury. However they should be marking Italy and the UK ahead of this in the same genre. I have major concerns with the televote for this. Sheldon’s mask is a huge barrier to connecting with the public + his staging was too dark and depressing.

Norway – This should be a solid top 10. Casual fans will love it. Behind the gimmick, it is a well produced pop song so the jurors should show it enough love.

Serbia – Serbia is in a battle for qualification with most of it’s allies in SF1. Should it make it through, it is a possible top 10. The song has been a huge hit in the balkan region and regional jurors should like the message. The numbers will be tight though.

Finland – The Rasmus are still popular in much of Eastern Europe. Combined with support from the Nordic region this could be enough for a left hand side finish. Vocals are a big concern here though.

Overall:

Based on the data this year’s contest looks like a 2 horse race between Italy and Ukraine. I am giving the edge to Italy here, based on jurors and the EBU coming to their senses about a Ukraine win. We must wait for rehearsals to see if a contender from the chasing pack can pose a threat.

Recommended bets:

Back Italy to win Eurovision 2022 @ 5.3 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Spain to win Eurovision 2022 @ 25 (Betfair Exchange) – Price crash possible so this can be laid off during rehearsal week

Back Spain to finish Top 10 @ 1.65 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Poland to finish Top 10 @ 1.6 (Betfair Exchange)

An eventful national final season comes to a close in Friends Arena. 6 weeks ago few would have predicted the final battle coming down to Cornelia and Anders. I will lay out some bets I recommend.

Cornelia Jakobs to win Melfest @ 1.5 (Bet365)

Anders Bagge to win Melfest televote @ 1.29 (Smarkets)

I am of the opinion that Cornelia will sneak a win. She has gained momentum over the last week rising to #2 in the Spotify charts and regularly receiving airplay. It’s clear she is the chosen one from producers by getting the #10 slot. The composition of jurors being western should also help her expand her jury lead. Whilst Anders is looking at a 90+ televote point score I think Cornelia should net enough from the jury score. An important change this year is the resetting of the app vote after the jury have voted. Voters are likely to transfer their votes to those at the top of the jury scoreboard, as they are perceived to be more likely to win. This is likely to provide a boost to Cornelia and Liamoo, who I believe will be the likely jury leaders.

Liamoo to beat Klara @ 3.2 (Unibet)

This is likely to be a close race but I see value in Liamoo’s price. He has the slickest performance this year and had made improvements with the addition of dancers in the final. This is the sort of package that Mello jurors love so I’m expecting it to be in their top 2. Whilst Klara has done extremely well on streaming platforms, it can be argued her support is concentrated with the young. I’m also not sure how much love the jury will give to this, the song is quite dated and the performance strays too towards the novelty line with the staging.

Lay Faith Kakembo for Last Place @ 2.98 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Anna B for Last Place @ 7 (Smarkets)

I think Faith Kakembo could avoid last place. Songs like this have done especially well with the jury in the past. Nano’s “Chasing Rivers” comes to mind and that placed a shocking 2nd with the jury. The jury could be enough to save Faith from last. A potential last placer is Anna B. She received a measly 1 vote in the jury final exit poll. It is important to remember how Anna placed 10th in 2019 with a stronger song imo. Whilst Anna could get some older votes, this year she faces strong competition from the likes of Anders, Cornelia and John Lundvik.

Cornelia to win Melfest jury @ 1.35 (Unibet) 3pts

Liamoo to win Melfest jury @ 10 (Unibet) 1pt

Cornelia should win the jury, especially with the Western bias this year. Liamoo however poses a threat with a slick competent package that jurors usually aim for. Whilst I have backed Cornelia to win the jury, I have put a small amount on Liamoo as a cover as odds of 10.0 are way too long imo.

My overall prediction for this year is:

1. Cornelia
2. Anders
3. Liamoo

After a disastrous placing last year Germany hands power back to the people with their new selection show: “Germany 12 points”.

Whilst most of these songs are decent and radio friendly there isn’t much that would light up the scoreboard at the contest.

Felicia Lu with “Anxiety” is the clear standout for me. It is a well produced electro-pop song with an important message. The fast paced structure of the song is something that makes it stand out. On top of this, Felicia has already created a revamp which will be performed live tonight. I understand that this new version is more “Eurovision friendly” with peaks and troughs added as well as a pop-rock ending. Felicia herself seems very enthusiastic about the contest and her homemade music video is particularly impressive.

The only other song that I think would avoid last at ESC is Malik Harris with “Rockstars.” This is another well produced radio friendly pop song. I can see this having potential as it has elements of Roman Lob. I also believe it is the highest charting of the entries on the German radio airplay chart. However, I have some concerns about how this will be performed and Malik has also been drawn in slot 1.

A potential wildcard is “Hallo Welt.” This attempts to be an uplifting number about forgetting the worlds problems. The lyrics have been changed for tonight to reflect the situation in Ukraine. This could do very well with the older audience that tend to watch German NFs. I also believe the staging will very much focus on war issues. This could be a big factor in getting sympathy votes tonight.

Felicia Lu should win this but there are still some concerns. Felicia should win the online radio voting as I think fans will make up a large % of these votes. However, Hallo Welt is drawn in last and can tap into the mood of the nation. Something to consider is that there is a Ukraine solidarity programme airing before the NF, which could affect the feelings of TV viewers. The older demographics of the NF viewers could also hurt Felicia here.

Recommended bet:

Back Felicia Lu to win @ 1.58 (Betway) 3pts

Back Nico Suave & Team Liebe to win @ 17 (Betway) 1pt

The run of Mello heats comes to a close tonight at the iconic Friends Arena. Last week saw a shock with Faith snatching a final spot at the last minute. Let’s take a look at what we have in store for tonight.

This heat has a clear top 3 which are tough to separate. Klara takes the traditional pimp slot with “Run To The Hills.” I had high hopes for Klara because of rumours that she had a strong song & big staging. Yet after watching the rehearsals it’s clear she hasn’t brought a Mello winner. “Run To The Hills” is an EDM banger with a superwoman themed staging. The song sounds dated to me but Klara is a very likeable performer. She has improved her vocal significantly over the last few days. Klara performs very well with younger groups and in combination with the pimp slot, I’m expecting her to win the semi.

Anna Bergendahl completes her trilogy of recent entries with “Higher Power.” This is much more country than her previous numbers and I think this is by far her weakest. Whilst the staging concept is quite cool it is way too dark. On top of this, Anna has struggled vocally in rehearsals. I also think she struggles with stage presence without accompanying dancers. However, we know based on past data the strength Anna has with older voters and this is significant for the 2nd round of voting.

Angelino’s “The End” is arguably the strongest song of the heat. It is a subtle pop ballad inspired by Duncan Laurence and Tom Walker. I would have preferred for this to be staged with Angelino at the piano but he still sells the song well despite a lack of prior experience. I can also see this having cross-generational appeal which is important for the 2nd round. There are still questions over if this will appeal to the Swedish audience, I am taking the bet that it does.

The battle for 4th place is also a tough one to call. I am leaning towards Medina taking this slot. They have a fun number which sounds like Liamoo’s “Bluffin” in the verses but then has an eastern/oriental sound in the chorus. There is a lot of production behind this, but sometimes it feels like the performers lack energy. It is difficult to predict how Tenori will place due to lack of precedent. However, I think this will have some appeal to older age groups that should save it from the bottom 2. Malin Christian is bringing a gentle Swedish ballad, in the same vain as Lovad from 2021. This is performed better but it is still uncompetitive. I still think it has the capability of avoiding last place, as these sort of ballads have avoided the bottom in this years heats. Lilyaster’s number is executed poorly. Whilst they had some success last year, I find this entry to be unmemorable and a potential outsider for last place.

Recommended bets:

Back Median to Qualify for the Semi Final @ 2.2 (Unibet)

Back Lilyaster for Last Place @ 6.5 (Unibet) (Small stake)

Lay Anna Bergendahl to Qualify for the final @ 1.55 (Betfair Exchange)

After a successful week, we take another dive into previewing the national finals set to air tonight.

Croatia: Dora 2022

The quality of Dora has diminished this year compared to previous. However I still see 3 standout entries that can make the Eurovision final. Mia Negovetić returns for her 3rd year with a different style. “Forgive Me” is clearly inspired by Husvaik with some Disney elements. I think this would be a decent entry at ESC and score well. Mia should be able to deliver this well attracting both televotes and jury points. The only concern is her slot 2 in the running order, although the running order was drawn randomly this year so it’s not really a sign of producer intent.

Marko Bosnjak is a talent show winner and his all Croatian entry, “Moli za nas” is an atmospheric midtempo number. Marko should be able to attract jury support as well televotes due to his previous talent show history. However I do have some concerns about his live performance capability, looking at Youtube he has not performed on live TV for years which may make him vulnerable. Mia Dimsic is another somewhat famous entrant and she is bringing a Taylor-Swift inspired song, “Guilty Pleasure”. Mia benefits from the luck of the draw having been placed last. Again, she should be able to score well with both constituencies.

I see this final coming down to a battle of the Mia’s. Although the running order benefits Mia D, I think it will be 3rd time lucky for Mia N.

Recommended Bet:

Back Mia N to win Dora @ 2.5 (Smarkets) 3pts

Back Mia D to win Dora @ 4.5 (Smarkets) 1pt

Poland: Tu bije serce Europy

After initially opting for internal selection, Poland has switched to a national final after their internal jury struggled to make a decision.

On paper, this should be a runaway win for Ochman. He is by far the best candidate and would almost certainly secure a top 10 finish. Although, I personally find the song disjointed he would be able to secure significant jury support as well as diaspora televote.

However, Polish NFs have known to be messy. Most notably, in 2016 Poland gained favourite status on the outright yet she missed out. Daria’s “Paranoia” could be a challenger here. It is last in the running order and has been a huge hit in Poland charting at #1 and has over 10m views on Youtube. Daria also has strong ties to TVP having performed at many of their events. Nevertheless, there are concerns about Daria’s live performance. Previous performances have shown her to lack charisma and struggle vocally.

The voting system for Poland tonight hands disproportionate influence to jurors so there may be some dark arts at play. I have personally laid small stakes on Ochamn and would advise the same.

Recommended bet:

Lay Ochman to win Tu bije serce Europy @ 1.3 (Betfair Exchange) – Small stakes only!

Norway: Melodi Grand Prix 2022

Norway has the blockbuster selection for tonight after weeks of agonising heats.

Subwoolfer leads the pack as an odds on favourite. They are leading all stats clearly, they’re the only song charting in the spotify top 100 and have the most Youtube views. Questions about their identity have led them to gain press coverage. Their songs is quite well produced. I was underwhelmed slightly by their performance and felt they could have done much more, but they are deservedly favourites.

Elsie Bay was the pre-live favourite but after a disappointing first heat performance she has drifted out. However, she has stated significant changes have been made. This is by far the strongest song in the selection, but there issue is with the staging and the connection with the audience. Elsie does benefit from being last in the running order.

The other major contender I see is NorthKid. Their performance was perceived very positively on Norweigan social media. In addition to this, I believe they are the only act from North Norway. They should benefit from regional voting, particularly with the return of unlimited SMS voting. However, NorthKid face an uphill climb to make it to the gold duel from slot 2 in the running order.

The other contenders for a space in the top 4 include Maria Mohn, the last chance winner, who has a viking song and a strong narrative about her ill son. Maria should benefit from having performed on TV 3 weeks in a row now. Oda’s “Hammer of Thor” is also a well performed viking song. However, any chances of this taking the crown have been buried by her opening the show. Sofie’s, “Made of Glass” is a Morland written ballad that is well produced. Yet, I had concerns about her live performance which I perceived to be overly shouty and lacked an emotional connection. She will also suffer from Elsie Bay coming up much later.

Whilst this looks like it should be a landslide win for Subwoolfer, there are concerns with how they could do in a duel. The extent to which there is an anti-vote in Norway for them is unknown. If they face NorthKid in the gold duel, there is a strong chance they lose but I can see them easily beating off Elsie Bay.

Recommended bet:
Back Subwoolfer to win MGP @ 1.65 (Bettson) 3pts

Back NorthKid to win MGP @ 11 (Unibet) 1 pt

Thanks to the people at SVT, I was given accreditation to view the rehearsals. I’ll be providing my thoughts on the numbers as I saw them.

1. Liamoo – Bluffin

Songwise I think is one of the strongest numbers we have seen in recent years. It is a combination of The Weeknd with Eric Saade’s “Every Minute” but much more accessible and poppy. Liamoo sells the song well and is very charismatic. However the issue is that the staging is quite minimalistic with no backing dancers. Liamoo is left to carry the performance all by himself. This is easily the winner of tonight’s heat and should be set for top 3 in the final. Yet, I don’t think it has that winning element.

2. Niello & Lisa Ajax – ‘Tror Du Att Jag Bryr Mig’

Contrary to others I am quite a big fan of this number. The song itself is catchy and a toe-tapper. I think this is the music that Swedes listen to outside of Mello. In the rehearsal, Ajax performed excellently. The pair work well together. Although, there are concerns about Niello’s vocals but he has improved throughout the week. Ajax has made the 2nd chance 2 out of 3 times she has performed. I’m expecting this to sneak a 4th place with Ajax’s young fans coming to the rescue.

3. Samira Manners – ‘I Want To Be Loved’

This is staged quite nicely with a lovely LED backdrop. The camera angles are also great and Samira sells the song down the lens. Yet, I’m not really sure the song is strong enough. It may not connect depending on the mood of the audience or it might!

4. Alvaro Estrella – ‘Suave’

Alvaro’s entry this year is staged more slickly than his previous entries in my number. SJB has thrown in a lot of her trademarks from ESC. Despite this, I don’t think the song has improved that much. I, myself felt quite bored as we have seen it all before.

5. Browsing Collection – ‘Face In The Mirror’

The ladies sell this number very well. They are a charismatic bunch and you can tell they love performing. However, I find the number to be a bit pedestrian. It doesn’t really stand out and doesn’t fit a perfect genre.

6. John Lundvik – ‘Anglavakt’

Songwise this is by far the weakest of John’s entries. It feels like a long 3 minutes and quite flat. However, John does sell the song very well. The emotion comes across very well and the lighting is also quite nice. John is very popular in Sweden and has won a number of reality shows. It will be a tough call whether he takes the 2nd DTF slot.

7. Tone Sekelius – ‘My Way’

This is a very poor performance and feels amateurish. Tone’s vocals are ok but the backing is very heavy. The whole package almost feels like a parody to me. But, I can see Tone avoiding a last place finish due to her fanbase and the narrative of being the 1st ever trans contestant.

My prediction:

1. Liamoo
2. John Lundvik
3. Alvaro Estrella
4. Niello & Lisa Ajax
5. Browsing Collection
6. Tone Sekeliuss
7. Samira Manners

Recommended Bets:

Back Liamoo/John Lundvik to go DTF @ 2.5 (Unibet)

Back Niello & Lisa Ajax to Qualify for the SF @ 2.75 (Unibet)

Today is a blockbuster Super Saturday with the Baltics locking in their choices for Eurovision 2022. I’ll be detailing the bets I made for tonight.

Ukraine – Vidbir:

Ukraine is known for it’s chaotic national finals and today looks set to be no different. I backed Alina with her song, “Shadows of Forgotten Ancestors” @ 2.45. This song has elements of Jamala’s “1944”. With the current situation I also feel like this song will connect even more with the audience. Alina benefits from the pimp slot and her connections with Jamala and Tina Karol are well known. There are some concerns about the televote though, a minor hate campaign has brewed against her with rumours spreading she has visited Crimea in the past. To cover for this I backed Wellboy @18.5, he looks to be the televote favourite with his song trending on Youtube at #2. I still expect the juries to push through Alina.

Latvia – Supernova:

This is probably the toughest of tonight’s selections to call. Aminata only finished 6th in the televoting in the semifinals, however we know that she was performing from home whilst ill. The producers are looking to push her through by giving her the pimp slot. The jury is also back in Supernova with a 50% stake, which is convenient. I am expecting Aminata’s televote score to improve tonight as she can elevate the song even more live in the studio. There are a number of novelty songs which I can see splitting the vote with each other. All in all, I think the producers will do their job and help Aminata over the line.

Recommended bet:

Back Aminata to win Supernova @ 2.6 (Smarkets)

Lithuania – Pabandom iš naujo! 2022:

This selections looks like a done deal for Monika Liu. She is by far the biggest name and will rack up a huge televote score. In addition to this, we know through the semifinal results that she is loved by the jury. I was luckily able to get Monika @ 1.84 on Smarkets. I would recommend still backing her at a short price as I consider this a done deal.

Estonia – Eesti Laul 2022:

Stefan seems the runaway winner with his country-twinged pop song “Hope.” This is by far the strongest entry for Eurovision, I think it would get a respectable placing. However Stefan’s odds of 1.3 to win Eesti Laul seem too short, this is a similar placing to Elina’s La Forza. I did manage to back Stefan @ 2.2 on Betfair Exchange.

The biggest challenger to Stefan in my opinion is Anna Sahlene with her anthemic cliche pop song, “Champion.” Anna is by far the strongest performer and she elevates her song to another level. She is accompanied by 2 famous Estonian backing singers, who should help her televote. There is also a 20 year narrative at play with Anna having represented Estonia in 2002. I expect this to come 2nd.

Recommended bets:

Back Stefan to win Eesti Laul @1.5 (Cool Bet) 3 pts

Back Anna Sahlene to win Eesti Laul @ 24 (Smarkets) 1 pt

After 2 successive last place finishes Ireland heads back to the notorious Late Late Show selection format.

Brooke’s “That’s Rich” is a clear stand out. It is a funky pop feminist number with influences from Olivia Rodrigo. It is by far the stand out contender and Ireland’s best chance of making it out of the semi finals. The modern production should mean that Brooke wins the international jury vote. She is from Northern Ireland and should benefit from a strong regional bloc vote. There are some concerns at how it will come across on the late late studio stage but Brooke is a seasoned performed having finished 3rd on The Voice UK.

Brooke’s biggest competitors are buried away in slot 1 and 2, Patrick and Janet. Both are good vocalists and have connections with RTE. However their songs are just not strong enough to stand out. The selection is quite ballad heavy and these songs are likely to blend into one, although I suspect one of Patrick or Janet will win the Irish jury vote.

A possible long shot contender is 2017 Eurovision entrant, Brendan Murray. His song, “Real love” has undergone a revamp and sounds much more closer to his style than his 2017 entry. Brendan is a strong vocalist and is likely to bring a minimalist intimate staging that will be well liked. If Brooke’s staging goes wrong, this could end up as an accidental winner much like Molly Sterling in Ireland’s 2015 selection.

Recommended bets:

Back Brooke to win Eurosong 2022 @ 2.3 (Betfair) 3 pts

Back Brendan Murray to win Eurosong 2022 @ 13 (Betfair) 1 pt

Norway kicks off its selection show with the first heat tonight where 4 acts will battle it out via a duel format to earn a place at the finale.

Duel 1: Eline Noelia vs Mira Craig

Eline Noelia is set to start the show with a unique electro-pop song, “Ecstasy”. This will be a very difficult song to pull off live but going through Eline’s social media where she has posted previous performances she looks like she has the ability to pull it off. However there are a number of red flags. The song is very jarring with a very unusual drop which I am not sure the public will warm to. Mira Craig is a previous MGP winner as a songwriter in 2008 and her entry, “Hold On Be Strong” very much sounds like it comes from the same. I’m expecting Eline to take this duel.

Duel 2: Trollfest vs Frode Vassel

Trollfests’ ‘Dance Like A Pink Flamingo’ is an uptempo punk novelty song that is sure to attract lots of votes. They are also likely to bring a novelty staging, possibly with a gimmick. Frode Vassel has had plenty of Eurovision experience having helped JOWST, Rybak and KEIINO. His song, “Black Flower”, which focuses on climate change is unlikely to pose any threat in this duel.

Overall winner: This is a very tough heat to call and one where the duel system creates even more uncertainty. Both Trollfest and Eline Noelia are likely to attract negative votes. Staging is likely going to call the winner of this one, but I would give the edge to Trollfest.

Recommended bet: Back Trollfest @ 2.75 to win MGP heat 1

Will Ronela be the sekret to success for Albania?

Albania send it’s first uptempo song to Eurovision in 12 years with Ronela’s Sekret. Sekret has a strong instrumental hook with a passionate performer. However in it’s current form there are several red flags. Ronela comes across as too aggressive, almost giving death glances to the camera at moments. The song itself is messy in structure and the lighting is too dark. If it went to ESC in it’s current form it would be a borderline qualifier at best.

However, there is a lot of potential for Albania. Ronela has confirmed the song will undergo a revamp by British-Dutch producer, “Diztortion”. Issues with the: staging, lighting and camera angles can all be ironed out. Albania have had issues in the past with staging production but Ronela is a big & well connected artist who will likely have the funding to hire someone experienced like SJB.

It is difficult to predict where Albania will place this year with so much work to be done. If everything falls into place then I can envisage a Hurricane like result with strong regional televote support along with votes from the diaspora. There is some evidence to suggest this could be the case with the NF performance trending on Youtube across the balkan nations as well as diaspora nations such as Germany, Italy and even the UK.