Tonight brings us the first Super Saturday of the Eurovision season where 7 countries will select their entry for Eurovision 2023.
Italy – Sanremo 2023:
I backed and tipped Marco Mengoni @3.5 before the contest started and it looks like he is well on track to win. He is currently leading the overall standings after winning the press jury over the first 2 nights and pulling off a surprise win on covers night. Mengoni has performed extremely well with both social media and streaming statistics. A spanner was thrown into the works on Thursday when it was revealed that Ultimo had actually won the televoting that night. However, his fans would have likely been motivated by his poor score from the press. Moreover, his fanbase are very passionate so it is easier for him to win in a 28 song field than a 5 song superfinal. When it comes to the superfinal the press jury will likely rank Ultimo 4th or 5th preventing him from winning. Mr Rain has become a surprise contender storming the streaming charts as well as demonstrating strong support on both Facebook and Instagram. Despite this, the press jury ranked him 17th out of 28 meaning his path to victory is very narrow. Lazza has the best song for Eurovision in my opinion and is currently #1 on the Spotify chart. He looks set to be a lock for the superfinal. Lazza is arguably gaining momentum but probably doesn’t have enough steam int he tank to win. Top 3 looks a better bet here as he did relatively well with the press jury and should be getting a strong televote. Mengoni is the act that can score most consistently across the 3 constituencies. He has already shown that he can win all 3 (winning the press on night 2, the demoscopic jury on night 3 and the televote on night 4.) The threat of an Ultimo win can also encourage the press jurors to rank Marco first to stop Ultimo, who they have a historic dislike of.
Recommended bet:
Back Marco Mengoni to win @ 1.4 (Bet365)
Back Lazza top 3 @ 2.1 (Bet365)
Denmark: Dansk Melodi Grand Prix
Denmark will be hoping to turn fortunes around after 2 years of non-qualifying. This year’s selection is a slight improvement from last year.
There seems to be 2 main contenders to win. EYJAA are an Icelandic duo living in Denmark whose song, “I was gonna marry him” is a pleasant folk pop number with a classic Eurovision key change. On the face of it, this does seem like something that Denmark would send.
Reiley is a TikTok star from the Faroe Islands who is singing a modern uptempo track, “Breaking my Heart.” The producers have placed EYJAA in slot 2 and Reiley in slot 8. Although songs have won from #2 in DMGP before this is arguably a clear sign of intent from producers that they want Reiley in Liverpool. Both artists seem to be inexperienced so could have faltering live performances. Residents in the Faroe Islands can vote which does give an advantage to Reiley as there will likely be a strong regional vote, like there was in 2019 when an act from Greenland took part. I also worry about how EYJAA’s entry will be staged as a song like this could end up feeling empty. The presence of a jury in the superfinal means they should be rewarding Reiley’s modern track which is why I am giving him the advantage right now. In terms of the top 3 market Soren seems like value to me. He has a pleasant Danish language ballad in the penultimate slot. I imagine this will have intimate staging that can connect to the audience. It doesn’t seem difficult to sing so could be a shock winner if the main 2 contenders don’t live up to expectations.
Back Reiley to win @3 (Unibet)
Back Soren Top 3 @4.5 (Unibet)
Estonia: Eesti Laul
I haven’t got involved with this selection due to a lack of value in the markets. Alika’s ballad written by Eurovision winners should take this in my opinion. Her semi final performance was great and seemed like it was in a league of its own. The issue for her is the 100% televote superfinal where voters may opt for something that grabs their attention more. Estonia does have a history of sending solo male acts and this may continue with OLLIE. He has performed well on Spotify and is winning polls on local Estonian sites. Alika on the other hand is even failing to win the annual artist poll which asks the other entrants to give points. An artistic song like hers should be winning here. On Alika’s side is the fact that Estonian voters do tend to be conservative and the high televoting cost skews the selectorate to be older, favouring entries that are more accessible and competent. The key here will be the 3rd superfinalist. If someone like Bedwetters makes it this strengthens the case for Alika, whilst Sissi or Anett and Freddi would make OLLIE stand out more.
Prediction:
- Alika 2. OLLIE 3. Bedwetters
Lavtia: Supernova
A selection which I haven’t really been paying any attention to but there are odds available for those living outside the UK. Sudden Lights comfortably won the televote in the semi final. Their entry is performed very well with the staging elevating a song which is quite mediocre. It is a competent performance that jurors should reward too. Patricia’s “Hush” seems to be too divisive on the other hand.
Recommended bet:
Back Sudden Lights to win @2 (Betsson)
TVTips.UK 