Tag Archives: Strictly Come Dancing

SCD Week 11: Stephenson Stumbling

Dan Walker defied the odds last week and continues his run on the show. Like we predicted last week Tilly was dragged down to earth, scoring even below Dan. This sealed her place in the dance off. We expected Dan to get more public votes than Tilly and Rhys. Dan escaped the dance off thanks to not coming dead last on the scoreboard with the public pushing him through.

It looks like producers may not be so adamant on dragging down Dan after all and feel comfortable continuing his story. Dan returns with a ballroom dance this week which could set him up to exceed his series high of 31 points. Although it is likely he will score in the bottom 2 we cannot underestimate Dan’s public vote capability.

Rhys has been given an Argentinian tango. Though this seems like a good dance on paper they are following on from John & Johannes’s spectacular AT pimp-slotted performance from last week. They set the bar high and could draw comparisons. It is also important to point out that Nancy does not have a history of performing the AT so we could see her struggle. We also have to stress how poorly Rhys has been performing in the public vote, almost every week he has escape the dance off has been thanks to the judge’s points.

This series has seen a trend for dancer to score low a week after they have topped the leaderboard. We saw this with Tilly’s elimination just a week after scoring a perfect 40. This might spell trouble for John who takes on the salsa. AJ interestingly will also take on the salsa, possibly leading to the judges drawing on comparisons. John is also due an early running order slot, so there is a chance he could delve into the dance off.

AJ & Rose look like they have their semi final spots booked already. Rose had a bit of a dip last week but still performed strongly with social media stats. This week she goes back to the ballroom where she is much more suited. We could see Rose returning to the top of the leaderboard as we get closer to the final and the show realises she is the inevitable winner.

This looks set to be another close week with Dan, Rhys and John battling for the last 2 spots in the semi. Dan does have the capability to outpoll both but again much depends on their position on the scoreboard. If we’ve learnt one thing this series it is to not underestimate Dan.

Recommended Bets:

Back Rhys Stephenson for Next Elimination @ 2.5 (Betfair Sportsbook)

SCD Week 8: Dragging Down Dan

Last week saw housewife favourite Tom Walker eliminated after falling into the dance off with Rhys Stephenson. Rhys was deservedly saved after improving from his original performance, where he had made a few mistakes.

It looks like last week was a close run for John, with social media stats suggesting it was very close between him and Tom to enter the dance off. Sunday night’s results show had seen twitter ablaze with many furious at Dan surviving yet again.

This week sees Dan taking on the rumba, which some have called the “dance of death.” Males in particular have struggled with the rumba in recent years. In the last 3 series the average lowest score for the rumba is a measly 19/40. Dan also enjoyed the pimp slot, so it is possible he could get a very early slot this week. Plus, Craig is likely to return this week and he has consistently scored Dan very low dishing out a 4, 5 and 6 in the last 3 weeks. It does look like at this stage of the game the odds are very much stacked against Dan’s continued defiance.

Tilly scored a perfect 40 last week, leading to a swathe of backlash from Twitter fans. This week she has been lumbered with a samba. Like the rumba this has historically been a difficult low scoring dance. Tilly has struggled when tasked with faster dances, as we have seen in week 7 and 8 where she was relegated to the dance off. I envisage this trend continuing and expect Tilly to enter the danger zone once more. She is likely to score more than Dan, however her public vote base is much lower and volatile.

Dance off survivor, Rhys, is set to take on the waltz. This is another difficult dance but Rhys has scored well with ballroom dances, which he has shown to be much more comfortable with. Plus he is likely to receive a sympathy bounce after hitting the bottom 2 last week. However, Rhys probably has the weakest public vote base of all contestants remaining and has relied on the judge’s points saving him from the dance off. He cannot be ruled out from hitting the dance off again.

AJ, John and Rose will almost certainly dominate the scoreboard this week. AJ will have the “Couple’s Choice” dancing to Janelle Monáe’s ‘Make Me Feel’, a song choice that certainly raises some eyebrows. After what was probably a near miss from the dance off, John takes on the Argentinian Tango which looks set to be a surefire hit. John & Johannes have not had the honours of closing the show yet, so could take this on this week to set up a very high scoring mark. Huge favourite Rose will dance to the dramatic paso which should delight the public vote. If producers want to create any type of unpredictability this is probably the last week to do so, hence Rose may not score as highly.

This is an unpredictable week with the 6 contestants firmly divided into 2 tiers. Dan, Tilly and Rhys all could go. Normally we see the novelty cut at this stage of the competition. Dan will have a difficult task to escape the danger zone after being given the dance of death and an early slot looks likely. There is always the unpredictability of the British voting public though…

Recommended bets:

Back Dan Walker for Next Elimination @ 2.0 (Smarkets)

Back Tilly Ramsay for Bottom 2 (Betfair Exchange)