eurovision – TVTips.UK

Eurovision 2025 Semi Final 1 Preview

Eurovision week kicks off tonight with the first Semi Final in Basel. Let’s take a look at the runners and riders:

Iceland opens the show with infectious energy and a feel-good atmosphere. It’s a fun number but risks being overshadowed by stronger televote magnets that follow. There’s likely voter overlap with Sweden and Estonia, which could dilute support even further.

Poland’s Justyna brings star power but stumbled through a messy rehearsal last night. Despite this, her name recognition and diaspora backing should be more than enough to carry her over the line.

Slovenia offers a welcome moment of calm. The performance is intimate, and well-directed, especially in its closing moments. If last year’s support for Dons is anything to go by, this could resonate with the older viewers who are looking for something a bit more conventional.

Estonia has levelled up since Eesti Laul. This is super fun. I am not the target audience for this one, but even I found myself laughing along. Easily something that could catch fire in the run up to to the final.

Ukraine truly risks pushing its luck on diaspora support. The performance feels flat and struggles in a tough slot between Estonia and Sweden. Any other country with this showing would be looking at a certain non-qualification.

Sweden has refined its Melfest staging, though underwhelming audience poll results have cast some doubt on its top-three credentials. Its head-to-head with Estonia will be one of the night’s most interesting dynamics.

Portugal is visually pleasant but loses impact after the first minute. The concept hasn’t translated clearly through the staging — a long shot to qualify.

Norway has taken a step down from its national final. Kyle’s vocals were shaky in rehearsal, and the confidence from MGP seems to have fizzled. If there’s a surprise non-qualifier tonight, this is the one.

Belgium impresses with sleek and modern staging. I’m still sceptical about the televote appeal of of this but expect this to be well-received by juries come the final.

Azerbaijan brings polished visuals, but the vocals are grating and there’s little for the average viewer to connect with. Overall, it feels very one note, lacking a call to action.

San Marino has fallen victim to Empty Stage Syndrome. It clearly had a great reception in the audience but on TV it falls flat. There are a number of countries in this semi which are “culturally obsessed” with Italy and the song is good enough to qualify on its own.

Albania could have staged this a bit better but it is still overall an impressive performance. This has huge support from the diaspora, which may be enough for a top 3 placing in this Semi. It still feels a bit uncertain regarding whether or not this will translate beyond fans and diaspora. We will have to see.

Netherlands delivers an all round solid performance and remains in contention for a jury win.

Croatia have staged this as well as they possibly could. The problem lies with the song itself which comes across like an assault on the senses.

Cyprus is technically impressive but is essentially complicated for the sake of being complicated. If the delegation weren’t up to their usual tricks, this could be one that surprisingly misses out.

Qualification battle:

In my view, three countries appear to be chasing the final two spots: Norway, San Marino, and Slovenia. Slovenia offers a calmer, emotional package in a somewhat hectic line-up that should appeal to older voters — which could be decisive. Norway exemplifies the type of entry that is decent in a semi-final show but falls apart on the big night. Kyle just needs a slight vocal improvement from last night and some more confidence to get through.

Semi winner and top 3:

Sweden remains the most likely winner of tonight. Whilst I am very positive about Estonia it’s an act that will be more impactful in the final after building momentum over the course of the week – it is more likely to garner a “WTF” first impression reaction. For 3rd, it’s tight between Albania and Netherlands, with Albania’s diaspora potentially tipping the balance in my opinion.

Predicted qualifiers: Poland, Slovenia, Estonia, Ukraine, Sweden, Norway, Belgium, Albania, Netherlands and Cyprus

Sweden
Estonia
Albania

Recommended bets:

Back Slovenia to Qualify @2.0 (Sky Bet)

Back Estonia Top 5 @4.5 (Betfair Exchange)

Benidorm Fest 2022: Preview

Tonight’s Benidorm Fest is set to be one of the most exciting national finals in recent years. RTVE have really turned the boat around with their excellent production so far and an all round fun show. With RTVE revealing the semi final results we have plenty of data to work with and there are 3 standout contenders to take the victory.

Riogberta Bandini has set the spotify chart alight with her entry. Ay Mama is currently #3 on the spotify chart with Terra the only other entry in the top 50 at #34. She also has the most viewed Youtube performance by far. On top of this, she handily won the expert jury vote in SF2 and came 2nd with the demoscopic jury. With all this data Riogberta is a worthy favourite but there are some red flags.

Chanel is the 2nd favourite in the odds with her song, “SloMo.” The song itself is nothing special but she elevates it to another level. She is working with one of the best choreographers, Kyle Hanagami, which should surprise no one. This is by far the best performed entry. The choreography and staging leave you gripped for the full 3 minutes. In terms of what would score best at Eurovision this is clearly the best on offer. It is a well performed slick female pop song and who knows how much more it could be elevated on the bigger Eurovision stage with a bigger budget. It was no surprise to see this win SF1 with the expert and demoscopic juries rewarding it’s competence.

Pre-live I thought Tanxugueiras’s entry, “Terra” would be the winner. However they have done the staging wrong, it looks too messy and distracting in it’s current form. If sent to Eurovision they would have potential if they went back to drawing board for staging ideas. The expert jurors deservedly punished them. However they are still likely to win the televote tonight due to huge regional vote coming from Galicia. Therefore we cannot rule them out in case changes from the SF mean jurors do a u-turn.

This will be an incredibly close NF and the running order shows no favouritism from RTVE. Tanxugeiras will almost certainly win the televote with Riogberta in 2nd and Chanel in 3rd. This means just 5 points will separate Riogberta and Chanel leaving it to the jurors decide. I think that jurors will reward the competency of Chanel over the gimmicky staging from Riogberta, so I would give the edge to Chanel.

Prediction:

Chanel
Riogberta
Chanel

Recommended Bet: Back Chanel to win Beniform Fest 2022 @ 3.05 (Smarkets)

Melodi Grand Prix 2022: Heat 3 Preview

Last week saw a winning tip from us with Farida’s competently performed Bond ballad, “Dangerous, beating out the competition.

Heat 3 is arguably the best heat with 3 strong contenders fighting it out for a space in the final.

Mari Bølla won Idol in 2020 so the public are used to voting for her week in, week out. Her song, Your Loss, is an Avril Lavigne inspired pop-rock song. This is a genre that is trending again because of Olivia Rodrigo. It would be difficult not seeing a very recent idol winner with an accessible pop song not make it out a heat.

Vilde’s, “Titans”, has emerged as a co-favourite in the odds. Her song is a very anthemic, uplifting pop song reminiscent of Klara Hammarström’s “Beat of Broken Hearts.” She has by far the most accessible song of tonight’s heat. There is also some staging potential, I can already see the pyro curtain in the final chorus.

Oda is bringing a viking pop song, “Hammer of Thor.” Whilst this is likely to have some novelty appeal the song itself is too slow and not as exciting as previous viking songs we have seen at NFs. However this entry has by the far the biggest amount of staging potential.

Sturla’s song is a mid tempo Norweigan language ballad. Whilst it is a competent effort it is nothing special and I fail to see how it will attract votes against the 3 other stronger female efforts.

This is another tight heat with all 4 songs being very competent and accessible. I would give the edge to Vilde just because of how uplifting and anthemic her effort is, I can see it resonating with all types of voters. However it would be ignorant to write off a recent Idol winner.

Recommended bet: Back Vilde to win MGP Heat 3 @ 2.86 (Smarkets)

Eurovision 2022 Czech Republic: We Are Domi – “Lights Off”

Will it be lights on or light off for the Czech Republic in Turin?

After an early online selection the Czech Republic has selected We Are Domi, an electro-pop band formed in the UK, with “Lights Off”. It is a modern and radio-friendly entry performed well by the band’s lead singer. Jurors are likely to rewards the commerciality of this effort, much like they did in the national final where the band dominated the international jury voting section and with Norway in 2017.

There could be concerns on the televote side of things. The track could struggle to stand out in an 18 song semi final depending on the running order. A strong staging package will be needed to ensure it stands out from the rest of the crowd. There are already successful elements of this in the NF performance with the effective lighting.

A strength for this entry is the charisma and vocal ability of the lead singer. She already connects well with the camera and comes across as likeable. All in all, I envisage a result closer to Norway 2017 than Poland 2018 but staging will remain key to the ceiling for Czechia.

Prediction: Borderline Qualifier (15th – 21st in Grand Final)

Eurovision 2022 Bulgaria : Intelligent Music Project – “Intention”

Bulgaria starts off the race to Turin with a new delegation at the helm. They present the Intelligent Music Project with the rock song “Intention.”

This is an incredibly low effort from a nation that previously was incredibly focused on PR and marketing strategies. It is not difficult to tell there is an entirely new team in charge this year. BNT seems to have lost interest in Eurovision and we could even say this is an “intentional” step towards non-qualification to justify a withdrawal in 2023. Allegations of corruption have also rocked the whole selection process this year.

The song itself lacks any hook and with more rock entries expected it will have no USP. Not even some of Sacha Jean Baptise’s best staging work would save this entry. As William Lee Adams said, “this is my bottom 1 not my top 1.”

Prediction: Non Qualification