TVTips.UK

Tonight brings us the first Super Saturday of the Eurovision season where 7 countries will select their entry for Eurovision 2023.

Italy – Sanremo 2023:

I backed and tipped Marco Mengoni @3.5 before the contest started and it looks like he is well on track to win. He is currently leading the overall standings after winning the press jury over the first 2 nights and pulling off a surprise win on covers night. Mengoni has performed extremely well with both social media and streaming statistics. A spanner was thrown into the works on Thursday when it was revealed that Ultimo had actually won the televoting that night. However, his fans would have likely been motivated by his poor score from the press. Moreover, his fanbase are very passionate so it is easier for him to win in a 28 song field than a 5 song superfinal. When it comes to the superfinal the press jury will likely rank Ultimo 4th or 5th preventing him from winning. Mr Rain has become a surprise contender storming the streaming charts as well as demonstrating strong support on both Facebook and Instagram. Despite this, the press jury ranked him 17th out of 28 meaning his path to victory is very narrow. Lazza has the best song for Eurovision in my opinion and is currently #1 on the Spotify chart. He looks set to be a lock for the superfinal. Lazza is arguably gaining momentum but probably doesn’t have enough steam int he tank to win. Top 3 looks a better bet here as he did relatively well with the press jury and should be getting a strong televote. Mengoni is the act that can score most consistently across the 3 constituencies. He has already shown that he can win all 3 (winning the press on night 2, the demoscopic jury on night 3 and the televote on night 4.) The threat of an Ultimo win can also encourage the press jurors to rank Marco first to stop Ultimo, who they have a historic dislike of.

Recommended bet:

Back Marco Mengoni to win @ 1.4 (Bet365)

Back Lazza top 3 @ 2.1 (Bet365)

Denmark: Dansk Melodi Grand Prix

Denmark will be hoping to turn fortunes around after 2 years of non-qualifying. This year’s selection is a slight improvement from last year.

There seems to be 2 main contenders to win. EYJAA are an Icelandic duo living in Denmark whose song, “I was gonna marry him” is a pleasant folk pop number with a classic Eurovision key change. On the face of it, this does seem like something that Denmark would send.

Reiley is a TikTok star from the Faroe Islands who is singing a modern uptempo track, “Breaking my Heart.” The producers have placed EYJAA in slot 2 and Reiley in slot 8. Although songs have won from #2 in DMGP before this is arguably a clear sign of intent from producers that they want Reiley in Liverpool. Both artists seem to be inexperienced so could have faltering live performances. Residents in the Faroe Islands can vote which does give an advantage to Reiley as there will likely be a strong regional vote, like there was in 2019 when an act from Greenland took part. I also worry about how EYJAA’s entry will be staged as a song like this could end up feeling empty. The presence of a jury in the superfinal means they should be rewarding Reiley’s modern track which is why I am giving him the advantage right now. In terms of the top 3 market Soren seems like value to me. He has a pleasant Danish language ballad in the penultimate slot. I imagine this will have intimate staging that can connect to the audience. It doesn’t seem difficult to sing so could be a shock winner if the main 2 contenders don’t live up to expectations.

Back Reiley to win @3 (Unibet)

Back Soren Top 3 @4.5 (Unibet)

Estonia: Eesti Laul

I haven’t got involved with this selection due to a lack of value in the markets. Alika’s ballad written by Eurovision winners should take this in my opinion. Her semi final performance was great and seemed like it was in a league of its own. The issue for her is the 100% televote superfinal where voters may opt for something that grabs their attention more. Estonia does have a history of sending solo male acts and this may continue with OLLIE. He has performed well on Spotify and is winning polls on local Estonian sites. Alika on the other hand is even failing to win the annual artist poll which asks the other entrants to give points. An artistic song like hers should be winning here. On Alika’s side is the fact that Estonian voters do tend to be conservative and the high televoting cost skews the selectorate to be older, favouring entries that are more accessible and competent. The key here will be the 3rd superfinalist. If someone like Bedwetters makes it this strengthens the case for Alika, whilst Sissi or Anett and Freddi would make OLLIE stand out more.

Prediction:

1. Alika 2. OLLIE 3. Bedwetters

Lavtia: Supernova

A selection which I haven’t really been paying any attention to but there are odds available for those living outside the UK. Sudden Lights comfortably won the televote in the semi final. Their entry is performed very well with the staging elevating a song which is quite mediocre. It is a competent performance that jurors should reward too. Patricia’s “Hush” seems to be too divisive on the other hand.

Recommended bet:

Back Sudden Lights to win @2 (Betsson)

Another year of Norwegian madness comes to a close in Trondheim Spektrum, with 9 artists battling it out for a ticket to Liverpool under an all new format.

The market thinks there are 4 winner contenders and I agree. Let’s take a look at them now.

JONE – Ekko inni meg: An uptempo EDM number that has been a huge hit in Norway, currently charting at #7 on the Spotify charts with a peak of #4. This feels very Norweigan and will definitely be a favourite of younger voters. Having suffered from an injury, JONE’s semi final performance felt static to me with the female dancers carrying the performance. It is also clear that autotune is giving JONE a lot of help. Being buried in slot #1 and jurors should handily stop this from winning, but a top 4 spot is expected.

Atle Petersen – Masterpiece: This was a successful SF3 qualifier tip. Atle is bringing an emotional well produced ballad in stark contrast to his 2021 entry. I was impressed by how much Atle elevated this live and how he connected to the audience conveying his emotions. The staging is also impressive with a nice light show. Atle clearly is one of the more well known artists and has an established fanbase. He is a favourite of the older demographic having topped facebook polls in Norway. Jurors should also be able to respect his vocal and the production of the song. A dark horse to win considering he can score well in both constituencies.

Alessandra Mele – Queen of Kings: A surpriser outsider from the start who is now the official favourite on Betfair. Queen of Kings has gone viral TikTok and charted internationally, with the wave of hype hitting the domestic market too as the song is currently sitting at #5 on the Spotify charts. Running order suggests NRK want this to go to ESC, banking on it’s international virality. How jurors will mark this is an interesting question. Recent history points us to Melfest 2022 where a similar sounding song, Klara H – Run to the Hills was also a huge charting success but scored poorly with jurors. Alessandra’s vocal also comes across as shaky. Jurors could end up dethroning the Queen of Kings.

Ulrikke – Honestly: Norway’s representative for the Eurovision that never was returns with a contemporary nordic ballad much in the vain of her previous entry. “Honestly”, is very calculated with the performance also feeling like it’s ticking off as many Eurovision boxes as it can. Despite this, Ulrikke is a class performer in a league of her own compared to the rest of the artists. It’s obvious she isn’t making use of the autotune feature. Ulrikke’s PR machine is also working in overdrive with a front cover in Norway’s biggest magazine this weekend as well as several TV and radio interviews. The narrative of her opportunity being stolen away from her will likely boost her televote higher and the jurors should certainly reward her competence.

The final will likely be a close run one. Much analysis on Twitter has focused on streaming numbers, although past NFs in Nordic countries have shown us there’s a difference between what people listen to vs what they vote for. Ulrikke is charting at #55 which is significantly better than Attention at the same time which was around #150. NRK want Alessandra to win but I think jurors and a sob story narrative will be enough to push Ulrikke over the line who will score well with both jurors and televote.

Recommended bets:

Back Ulrikke to win @ 2.46 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Atle to win @ 9 (Cool Bet)

The 2023 Eurovision betting season kicks off in Nydalen, Norway with a revamped MGP selection underway. 7 acts will compete in tonight’s heat fighting for 3 spots in the grand final. Let’s take a look at the competitors.

1. Alessandra Mele – “Queen of Kings”

An uptempo Alan Walker like number to kick off the MGP 2023 season. This should be a great opener. It has many similarities to Klara Hammarstrom’s “Run to the Hills” but has a stronger Nordic identity. It should qualify but there are concerns about if Alessandra can pull off being able to sing with little experience. Moreover, there is potential for the staging to be too aggressive.

2. Erik Naess – “Wave”

Strong Avicii vibes from Erik’s entry. Uptempo and anthemic. However it will likely fail to stand out in this diverse 7 song lineup. It also competes with Ulrikke in the anthemic category.

3. Rasmus Thall – Tresko

A TikTok hit waiting to happen was my first thought after listening to Tresko. The new autotune rule will almost certainly aid this entry with all the vocal modulations in the studio track. There is also strong sob story potential with the song being based on Rasmus’s brother who had a life changing accident. Rasmus definitely has the potential to qualify especially as he can capture the youth vote, which is important with an online only vote.

4. Kate Gulbrandsen – Tårer i paradis

A surprisingly very pleasant listen. The vocals combined with violin production create a heavenly atmosphere. If there was a televote I would have thought this could sneak through as it likely to be a favourite with the older demographic. An online vote means this is less likely to happen.

5. Umami Tusanmi – Geronimo

Umami Tsunami are bringing back a late 00’s Justin Timberlake sound. This is an energetic entry but also very dated at the same time. The boys will likely put on a lively show and could capture the teen girl vote, which might be enough.

6. Ulrikke – Honestly

The 2020 champion is back hoping this time to actually make it all the way to ESC. This is a very solid entry in my opinion with stirring lyrics and emotion inducing production. Ulrikke is an excellent performer and should elevate this even more. There are some valid criticisms of this entry. It definitely is very calculated and at times overproduced. In terms of winning MGP, I think Ulrikke is more than likely on track to clinch the trophy again. When thinking about it’s placement at ESC at this point I could see it end up in the range of 10th-15th.

7. JOWST and Byron Williams Jr

The 2017 champion returns with a new vocalist combining techno with jazz. In studio format this seems to be quite a poor entry. However, JOWST is likely to bring good staging. Byron is an experienced charismatic performer who comes across as likeable too. There is definitely a path to the final for this number.

MGP’s new voting system means viewers can only cast 1 vote. This means there will likely be a big range in % of votes between entries at the top and bottom. Ulrikke is the clear standout in this heat and could be on track for 70%+ of the votes, meaning a small % is needed to sneak into the final. It is a difficult heat to call but in terms of value I see JOWST as underpriced. The placing of his entry in the closing slot suggests there will be good staging and Byron Williams’s charisma combined with the running order benefit could be enough for it to qualify.

Recommended bet:

Back JOWST and Byron Williams Jr to Qualify @5.0 (Unibet)

A chaotic Eurovision season comes to an end tonight in Turin, Italy. Let’s take a look at the contenders and how I expect them to fare.

Ukraine: Is this going to win? Probably. The EBU have decided to be fair and given Ukraine slot #12 rather than attempting to bury them. Why they have done this, we’ll never know. Stefania has charted well across Europe after their show and they had good social media stats after Tuesday night. Although on closer inspection, these stats really aren’t that much of an improvement from Shum. A noticeable observation from the jury show was how relatively muted the audience were during the Ukraine performance. It is possible that viewers at home may still be thinking about Italy and Spain’s performances. Ukraine is also preceded by Netherlands which should get a strong jury showing. The #13 – #18 run in the final is very boring , and the audience is awoken by Moldova who are lapped up by the arena. In my opinion the Moldovan entry is a a real dampner on the Ukraine televote. A big question mark of course is the jury vote. With so many jury appealing songs in this final can jurors really rank Ukraine above entries such as the UK, Sweden, Italy, Spain, Greece, Netherlands, Poland and Switzerland? Thought it is likely some countries juries may give 12 as an act of solidarity. It remains to be seen what happens but the Ukraine price is way too short.

Spain: Chanel is ticking all the boxes and delivered an epic package. SloMo has undergone a subtle revamp and introduced a stronger Latin American element, which gives it a more national identity. They have also introduced jury notes to tick the “vocal capacity” box on the jury checklist. In a final which is full of ballads Spain has such a strong USP. The staging is very slick and they have even added a winners pyro curtain. It is more like an MTV awards performance than a Eurovision one. The big question mark is juries of course but can they really ignore such a solid package? Foureira managed 5th with the juries and this is a step above her. We could be onto a winner here

United Kingdom: Sam Ryder knocked it out of the park at the jury show. This has really been elevated live, much like Dami Im did with her song. Sam is a charismatic, engaging and likeable performer. I have this down as a jury winner because of how good the vocal is and how authentic the package feels. This also has a great slot in #22 sandwiched between 2 good vocals but very dark packages. Ryder is almost like the light in the middle. The big question of course is televote. The UK has a poor record, but they have sent poor songs. @VVeedla compared this entry to Voila on it’s initial release and that comparison has aged well. Space Man has a very strong British identity, with many comparing Ryder to Freddie Mercury and the song sounds like an Elton John one. Voila at the time was also compared to Edith Piath. This is something Europeans have arguably wanted from the UK at ESC for year. Sam is also a huge personality and a TikTok star of course. His video calling for votes has received 13m views on the platform, even if just a fraction are from voting countries it can make the difference.

Italy: Mahmood and Blanco have taken huge steps from their first rehearsal. Their jury show was fantastic and vocally excellent. The staging is nice and the lighting works well. The intensity levels are high between the two, but not quite as high as in Sanremo. Italy is probably the biggest loser from the running order having to precede Spain who essentially steals the show. The crowd also lifts this entry with home advantage. This should be in both the jury and televote top 5 so cannot be ruled out of contention.

Sweden: Cornelia was at her best at the jury final, adding in that emotional jury note. Her post-semi final stats are good too suggesting she easily won the semi final. She should be vying for the jury win. My concern is the televote here. I feel that this has lost its intimiacy from Melfest. In particular, the camera angles during the last minute are very poor. However, again I cannot rule this out of contention.

Prediction:

1. UK
2. Ukraine
3. Spain
4. Italy
5. Sweden

I have gone with the UK here for a number of reasons. It seems like everything is falling into place: the running order, the staging and the performer. Sam Ryder has a winner quality about him, in the same way Conchita and Salvador had. In the end, Ukraine very much still has a chance of winning but I have gone with the value here

6-10: Serbia, Poland, Norway, Greece, Moldova

Serbia should be storming the balkan vote much like Hurricane did but this likely going to be appreciated by casuals more. Juries should also appreciate it for it’s authenticity and artistic direction. Moldova is an entry I am expecting to reach top 5 in the televote because it pleases all regions. Therefore I expect it to make top 10.

Last place: Germany or Iceland

This is a tough market. Iceland looks like a value bet because nordics should be going for Sweden, Finland, UK and Norway over this leaving little for Iceland. Germany seems like the default option having to go after Ukraine but may get some jury love.

Recommended bets:

Lay Ukraine to win @ 1.43 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Moldova Top 10 @1.8 (Betfair Exchange)

Back UK Jury winner @ 2.75 (Bet365) and Sweden Jury winner @ 6.6 (Betfair Exchange)

Lay France Top 15 @ 1.77 (Betfair Exchange)

After a night of good bets on Tuesday it’s time to turn our attention to the 2nd semi final tonight. The quality is much higher here in this semi final and I can only rule 3 countries out of contention: Georgia, North Macedonia and Montenegro.

First let’s take a look at who we can say is: Sweden, Poland, Australia, Estonia and Czech Republic

Czechia is my outside tip for top 3. This has been a huge improvement from the pre-party circuit. The staging and lighting is excellent and the packages comes alive with a crowd. The pimp slot means it is definitely challenging for top 3.

Now let’s look at the contenders for the last spots

Serbia: This should be through quite comfortably. It has a likely 48 points head start with North Macedonia and Montenegro. Jurors should also be rewarding the package for it’s authenticity and originality. It may be off putting for first time viewers but it is also very Eurovision at the same time.

Finland: Lauri delivered his best vocal of the season at the jury show last night. This is likely going to go through on name anyway due to the Rasmus’s popularity with the older demographic and in the east.

Azerbaijan: Nadir delivered a stellar vocal yesterday. The staging is very theatrical and contemporary. I can see juries ranking this very high. However, it takes a long time for the song to get going, so televoters may lose interest. It is also competing with Australia and Poland for jury points.

Israel: A slick and competent performance from Israel. However, Michael continues to be “in your face” and has upped the campness which may put televoters off. MBD faces an uphill battle in slot 2 and with competition from Romania in the 2nd half

Malta: Emma gave a good performance yesterday and added some jury notes to tick a few boxes. The staging is uplifting and very X factor winner. Emma is likeable and smiles at the camera a lot. Malta also stands out in a sea of quirkiness. Jurors are likely going to reward this, but whether it stands out of enough to get enough televote. Malta does come before a break and has a few “friends” to help out.

San Marino: This was the performance of the night yesterday. It received by far the biggest reception from the crowd. The last minute just screams Eurovision. I am expecting the televote to drag this through to the Saturday night. It is a question of how much the jury has harmed this.

Cyprus: This is one of the biggest disappointments of the contest. The Cypriot team have got everything wrong here. Andromache’s vocal has been very shaky. The staging is very static and the camera angles make the performance seem very distant. This will get some love from televoters but I don’t think it will be enough to get over the line.

Ireland: Brooke has had one of the biggest glow ups this season. This is an excellent performance. She is fun, energetic and charismatic. The lighting is also great and her vocal is good. Ireland is a friendly semi but the competition is very tough. She does stand out in between the stiffness of Cyprus and North Macedonia.

Romania: Well performed but this feels like it’s enough. The semi final is too high quality and the jury will likely have this right at the bottom. The Romanian diaspora have also seem to lost interest in the contest.

Belgium: Like Cyprus this has been staged poorly. It feels very static and takes too long to get going. Jeremie over-emotes to the camera at many moments. His vocal was poor at the jury show. This is still a good song and the jury may pull it through. It came 3rd at Eurojury but the live version is a significant downgrade.

My 10 picks are: Sweden, Poland, Australia, Estonia, Czech Republic, Serbia, Finland, Malta, Azerbaijan and San Marino

Recommended bets:

Back Czech Republic top 3 @ 3.1 (Betfair Exchange)

Back San Marino to Qualify @2.0 (Boyle Sports)

Back Cyprus to Not Qualify @1.8 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Back Belgium to Not Qualify @ 2.38 (Betfair Sportsbook)

It’s finally Eurovision week and after Monday’s jury show we can take a look at the countries hoping to make it to Saturday night.

Let’s start off with the safe qualifiers that should be sailing through to Saturday night: Ukraine, Greece, Netherlands, Armenia, Norway and Portugal. It seems like we have a solid top 3 for this semi: Ukraine, Greece and Norway. Ukraine comes before an ad break and injects some life into the show after a dire run of songs from slot 2 to 5. The overall low quality means it should be up there with the jury and should be winning the semi comfortably. Greece performed excellently at the jury show and some small staging tweaks means they should be the jury winner. A good draw means they should be 2nd-3rd easily. Norway will do very well with the televote and should get a decent jury haul as it is a well produced song. Netherlands has been touted by many to also get a top 3 result. Whilst a jury top 3 result is very likely, I found the staging to be very boring. I struggle to see this challenging with the televote, especially when Greece is more dramatic and engaging.

Now let’s take a look at the countries fighting for the last few spots.

Albania: Ronela has dialled up the aggression sincw FiK. The first 2 minutes of this are a great opener in my opinion, but the last minute is quite messy. Juries may very well be put off by this. Albania seems to have enough allies in this semi to make it over the line, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it missed out.

Latvia: Citi Zeni are a big contrast to Ronela and this actually feels more like an opener. This is energetic and fun. The big question mark is how well can this stand out from #2 and followed by Moldova, Ukraine and Norway.

Switzerland: The Swiss team is bringing one of the best stagings in my opinion. SJB has done very well with the camerawork here. The big problem is the running order and whether Marius did well enough in the jury show. SUI has stong fundamentals having finished 3rd in SF1 Eurojury and being the only male soloist may make him stand out in a sea of female ballads.

Moldova: They had the biggest reaction in the hall last night. I was initially sceptical of Moldova’s q chances as the entry felt very cheap. However it looks like it will connect with the audience and it has a few friends in the semi.

Austria: The ORF team have done well to mask Pia Maria’s vocal problems. Although on the camera feed it is noticeable she is essentially miming at points.This does come alive with a crowd and has a good running order surrounded by dull songs. This is a tough one to call and will come down to how much the juries punish Pia.

Iceland: This is staged very well and feels warm. The harmonies are excellent and Iceland has chosen a great recap clip. However, the first minute is quite boring and tough to get through. They do have some help with Denmark, Norway and Netherlands in the semi. Noticeably, the ladies made a political statement about Ukraine at the end of their performance which could earn them some goodwill points. The question is how will this fare against the other female ballads.

Lithuania: A classy performance but this gets lost in the running order. This feels like a step back from the national final performance.

My picks are: Ukraine, Greece, Netherlands, Armenia, Norway, Portugal, Moldova, Switzerland, Albania and Latvia

Recommended bets:

Back Ukraine to win SF1 @ 1.6 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Norway Top 3 SF1 @ 1.96 (Betfair Exchange)

Lay Netherlands Top 3 SF1 @ 2.7 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Switzerland to Qualify @ 2.52 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Moldova to Qualify @1.4 (Betfair Exchange)

Today was the start of the 2nd rehearsals and I was able to view the rehearsals in full from the online press centre. Let’s take a look at the performers from today.

Albania: The camera angles were all over the place for Albania, particularly in the final minute of the song. Her vocal was quite weak at times. The choreography is also very weird. Nevertheless, with some work this should get through this weak semi final but top 10 outright is out of the question.

Latvia: This was performed relatively well. There is quite a nice saxophone break which is a good visual shot. Latvia is slightly hampered by the staging problems. This remains borderline and dependent on how other countries perform.

Lithuania: A very much expected performance from what we have seen in the past. Lithuania is another entry that is quite badly disadvantaged from the staging problems. Another country on the borderline.

Switzerland: This is clearly still a work in progress with some technical issues. The staging itself is quite slick and good camera angles. Marius’s voice was quite rough towards the end though. There is a package here that could work but we will need to wait and see how the issues are ironed out.

Slovenia: A very amateurish performance with a poor vocal. The disco gimmick is unlikely going to save this from the bottom 3.

Ukraine: Kalush is going to wake up the audience after a poor run of songs. Ukraine have brought some excellent graphics and the lighting works well. I do feel like this works better on a smaller stage. The end also feels quite repetitive. There were some poor choices of camera angles. This will do very well with the public regardless of the war context. Overall, the package is just too messy for the jury in my opinion but it should win the semi with ease.

Bulgaria: Competently performed with some pyro bringing it alive. The song is nowhere near good enough but should avoid last place.

Netherlands: An excellent opening shot reminiscent of Sweden 2014. This is a classy performance with nice lighting and camera angles. However, I find it becomes too boring especially towards the end. There are times where S10 is just standing there. It will do very well with the juries but televote is a huge question mark.

Moldova: This has been understaged and feels awkward on the big stage. It feels very cheap and lacks energy at times. It is likely going to perform better with a crowd. I’m less confident about their Q chances compared to others

Portugal: A very intimate and warm performance. The 2nd and 3rd run throughs had much better camera angles. Very classy and should be respected by the juries for sure. It can become dull at times though.

Croatia: They suffered from several technical problems. The staging concept is very poor and the whole package does not work. Chanceless for qualification.

Denmark: Vocals have improved a lot since DMGP. This is a competent performance which should get some jury marks. However it is not exciting enough to set the televote alight. Difficult to see how it gets enough to Q.

Austria: The 1st and 2nd run throughs of this were appalling. Pia was completely drowned out by a backing vocalist and butchered the high notes at the end. Her styling is too dark and both performers being in the halo just makes it static. The vocal did improve slightly in the final run through but a lot of work is going to be needed to help this over the line.

Greece: The press poll winner of the day. Amanda performed this very well and engaged with the camera. There is somewhat of a story being told here with the graphics. The lighting works well with the percussion of the song and they make excellent use of the stage waterfall. The downfall with Greece is the final 30 seconds. There is no wow moment and I expected more. However, it is still a competent performance. I think the market has overreacted because of the standard we have seen today. I do think Greece will be a likely top 3 finish in this semi.

Recommended bet:

Austria to Not Qualify @ 1.75 (Betway)

With the pre-party season over and data from: OGAE, Eurojury and preview shows trickling in it’s time to take a look at who is primed to take the glass trophy in May.

The front runners:

1. Italy

Based on all the information we have, Italy is the front runner to take the trophy in Turin. “Brividi” is a powerful emotional ballad by 2 engaging performers. Although there are a lot of male ballads this year, this is the clear standout with a male duo being the USP. Both performers have a strong vocal that the juries should be rewarding. Current Eurojury results suggest this on track to win or at least finish in the top 2. I am also expecting this to be in the jury top 2 in May. Furthermore, Italy has a record of a strong televote. Since 2016, Italy has never received under 200 televote points. I believe this streak will continue. Brivid has been a huge streaming success, but this is not just isolated to Italy. After their Sanremo win, the song charted in many neighbouring countries. On top of this, the OGAE poll shows that there is a clear love for this song. Most importantly, I think this is the entry that is able to score well across all regions. We can see this with the OGAE and Eurojury poll where Italy is scoring well across all sorts of countries. Some things to consider is the running order. Italy is drawn at #9. Whilst this is slightly early it is important to note Mans won from slot 10 out of 27 songs and Conchita won from slot 11 out of 26. #9 out of 25 should not be a significant barrier. Many have questioned if RAI would want to win again. Both Bologna and Milan had strong bids to host and are eager to host. It is unlikely there would be difficulties with hosting twice in a row. The global success of Maneskin is also likely going to motivate Universal Italia to put work in to replicate this with Mahmood and Blanco.

2. Ukraine

Ukraine is the current odds favourite for the win. I have previously been very sceptical of a Ukraine for various reasons. The idea of a Ukraine win is mainly based on a narrative, however past years have shown the contest does not work like this. On paper jurors should be marking down Ukraine. Shum placed 9th with jurors and that was a much stronger jury-appealing package due to Go_A’s strong vocals and artistic identity. However it hard to ignore that Ukraine will almost certainly be the televote winner. Historically, Ukraine has always been a strong televote nation and combined with the sympathy across Europe they are a shoe-in to win the televote. We may even be looking at a televote record. So it looks like it will come down to how much jury sympathy Ukraine gets. The EBU will not want Ukraine to win. Post-Euphoria they have spent a lot of time and effort into trying to rid ESC of it’s political associations. A Ukraine sympathy win would be a huge step back for the contest’s reputation across the continent. A first half draw could also see Ukraine being given the “honour” of opening. However, Ukraine has held up strong with Eurojury and the nordic preview shows so a win cannot be ruled out.

The chasing pack:

3. United Kingdom

I was initially sceptical of the UK’s chances this year but it has gone up in my estimation. Sam Ryder elevated “SPACE MAN” to new heights at LEP and EIC. He looks like he will follow the path Dami Im took where she elevated an average well produced pop song. The UK is performing very well with Eurojury and looks set to finish in the top 2. If Sam can replicated his pre-party performances I can see this in the jury top 2 alongside Italy. The televote is the biggest question mark for the UK because of it’s past history. Nevertheless, Ryder is the only contestant to have gone on a proper promo tour and he does have his 12m TikTok followers. To my suprise the UK is doing very well on the OGAE poll – a demographic which I did not expect to like the song to the extent the poll suggests. Staging is the biggest question mark for the UK and the only thing leaving me from putting the UK under the front runner section. If done well then there is a path for a British victory, but right now a top 5 result looks more likely.

4. Spain

Spain is a big standout this year, especially as the only uptempo female. Chanel is an exceptional performer and takes SloMo to a whole new level. She has been the start of the pre-party circuit leaving the audience in awe. Furthermore, Chanel is a likeable performer. The slickness of the performance is likely to appeal to juries much like Foureira and Luca Hanni. A 2nd half draw for Spain could also see it placed as a show closer. Spain would have benefitted from participating in the semi finals to gain momentum, like Fuego. However, I expect Spain’s price to crash during rehearsals as the Spanish HoD there will be even more improvements to the Benidorm Fest performance. Casual British punters will most likely love this as well – many of you will remember Barei’s price crash in 2016. All in all, I think a Luca Hanni result is looking possible for Spain this year.

5. Sweden

Sweden is sending it’s first solo female artist to the contest in 8 years with a raw authentic ballad, a marked departure from recent years. After Cornelia’s win Sweden shortened to around 6s. I have grown increasingly sceptical of a Swedish in recent weeks. Cornelia’s vocals have been shaky on the pre-party circuit. Whilst the raspy voice provides an authentic feeling, jurors may mark this down. Sweden is now doing decently well with Eurojury, but Sweden usually overperforms as they have a Melfest live performance advantage. “Hold me closer” is a hard first listen and I have doubts over whether this can connect well across the whole continent in terms of televote. OGAE data shows Sweden is performing less well in the east and it is interesting that there were no eastern jurors at Mello. However, a top 5 finish can’t be ruled out if Sweden gets a 2nd half draw and momentum from the SF.

6. Poland

Ochman has been another star of the pre-party circuit impressing many with his superb vocal consistency. When released as a studio cut many predicted “River” to be a potential ESC winner. However, an underwhelming NF performance caused a price drift. Though Ochman was ill during this and staging changes have been promised. The case for Poland top 5 simply comes down to: jurors being impressed by Ochman’s voice + the Polish diaspora being awakened from their slumber. I agree that Poland is likely to get a very good televote, especially as Ochman is a protege of Spzak. Poland should also be right up there with the jury because of his voice. However, Poland has performed poorly with Eurojury. Some jurors may mark down the song because of it’s disjointedness and how jarring it can be. We also know that jurors aren’t huge fans of an operatic voice (Italy 2015, Estonia 2018). Televote wise, Ochman lacks charisma and struggles to connect with the camera as he closes his eyes throughout his performances. Nevertheless, Poland does have the ability to finish top 6 in both jury and televote.

Best of the rest

Greece – The act which we have the least information about. Whilst the last minute of the song is strong and impactful, the first minute lacks a punch. However, this will probably be up there with the juries. Greece will be one of the most awaited rehearsals with a good stage show promised from Fokas and co. This is probably aiming for lower top 10.

Netherlands – The Common Linnets meets Blanche with this moody country twinged number.The Netherlands has performed exceptionally well with the Nordic preview shows and should be the front runner to win the jury in SF1. I have concerns with how accessible this will be with the public. S10 isn’t the most engaging performer and this moody number may fail to connect with the public. The laser show has been ditched – and I was a big fan of that. This could narrowly miss out on top 10

Australia – This is performing well with EJ and I expect it to do decent enough with the jury. However they should be marking Italy and the UK ahead of this in the same genre. I have major concerns with the televote for this. Sheldon’s mask is a huge barrier to connecting with the public + his staging was too dark and depressing.

Norway – This should be a solid top 10. Casual fans will love it. Behind the gimmick, it is a well produced pop song so the jurors should show it enough love.

Serbia – Serbia is in a battle for qualification with most of it’s allies in SF1. Should it make it through, it is a possible top 10. The song has been a huge hit in the balkan region and regional jurors should like the message. The numbers will be tight though.

Finland – The Rasmus are still popular in much of Eastern Europe. Combined with support from the Nordic region this could be enough for a left hand side finish. Vocals are a big concern here though.

Overall:

Based on the data this year’s contest looks like a 2 horse race between Italy and Ukraine. I am giving the edge to Italy here, based on jurors and the EBU coming to their senses about a Ukraine win. We must wait for rehearsals to see if a contender from the chasing pack can pose a threat.

Recommended bets:

Back Italy to win Eurovision 2022 @ 5.3 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Spain to win Eurovision 2022 @ 25 (Betfair Exchange) – Price crash possible so this can be laid off during rehearsal week

Back Spain to finish Top 10 @ 1.65 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Poland to finish Top 10 @ 1.6 (Betfair Exchange)

The film season draws to a close at tonight’s Academy Award. I’ll be providing a run down of the categories I think are worth investing in.

Best Picture:

This has been a chaotic category this season with The Power of The Dog losing it’s favourite status after a surge in momentum for CODA. Stats wise this would be an easy win for TPOTD but the picture is much more complicated. The voting system (ranked choice voting) makes this interesting. CODA beat TPOD at the PGAs – the only Oscar precursor that uses the same voting system. TPOTD seems to be following the path of “Roma” which was also seen as polarising and too artistic for someone. This voting system rewards candidates that have broad appeal and that can pick up #2s and #3s. Furthermore, the CODA actors are much loved in USA with their recent invitation to the White House a latest example. The momentum is clearly with CODA here but it is a tight race pitting head against heart.

Recommended bet:

Back CODA to win Best Picture @ 1.83 (Bet365)

Best Actress:

This is another category where there has been many ups and downs over the course of the season and a very open race. Chastain has settled with the favourite status and precursors would suggest she takes the award. However, the anonymous ballots publish forecast a landslide win for Cruz. This would be an unprecedented win defying all the rules. Nevertheless, Cruz’s movie is by far the best of the nominated and she offered a classy performance. The growing number of international voters in the academy should also provide a significant boost for Cruz. I see Cruz following the path of Hopkins last year and causing an upset.

Back Cruz to win Best Actress @ 4.2 (Smarkets)

Some safer bets I recommend:

Back CODA to win Best Adapted Screenplay @ 1.66 (Smarkets)– a split in the vote of the more artistic darker films should see a victory for CODA here.

Back No Time to Die for Best Original Song @ 1.5 (Betfair) – This is a very good song and follows the trend of previous category winners opting for ballads.

Back The Eyes of Tammy Fae for Best Makeup @ 1.5 (Mansion Bet) – there is unanimous opinion from experts that this should be a lock in and 1.5 seems too long.

An eventful national final season comes to a close in Friends Arena. 6 weeks ago few would have predicted the final battle coming down to Cornelia and Anders. I will lay out some bets I recommend.

Cornelia Jakobs to win Melfest @ 1.5 (Bet365)

Anders Bagge to win Melfest televote @ 1.29 (Smarkets)

I am of the opinion that Cornelia will sneak a win. She has gained momentum over the last week rising to #2 in the Spotify charts and regularly receiving airplay. It’s clear she is the chosen one from producers by getting the #10 slot. The composition of jurors being western should also help her expand her jury lead. Whilst Anders is looking at a 90+ televote point score I think Cornelia should net enough from the jury score. An important change this year is the resetting of the app vote after the jury have voted. Voters are likely to transfer their votes to those at the top of the jury scoreboard, as they are perceived to be more likely to win. This is likely to provide a boost to Cornelia and Liamoo, who I believe will be the likely jury leaders.

Liamoo to beat Klara @ 3.2 (Unibet)

This is likely to be a close race but I see value in Liamoo’s price. He has the slickest performance this year and had made improvements with the addition of dancers in the final. This is the sort of package that Mello jurors love so I’m expecting it to be in their top 2. Whilst Klara has done extremely well on streaming platforms, it can be argued her support is concentrated with the young. I’m also not sure how much love the jury will give to this, the song is quite dated and the performance strays too towards the novelty line with the staging.

Lay Faith Kakembo for Last Place @ 2.98 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Anna B for Last Place @ 7 (Smarkets)

I think Faith Kakembo could avoid last place. Songs like this have done especially well with the jury in the past. Nano’s “Chasing Rivers” comes to mind and that placed a shocking 2nd with the jury. The jury could be enough to save Faith from last. A potential last placer is Anna B. She received a measly 1 vote in the jury final exit poll. It is important to remember how Anna placed 10th in 2019 with a stronger song imo. Whilst Anna could get some older votes, this year she faces strong competition from the likes of Anders, Cornelia and John Lundvik.

Cornelia to win Melfest jury @ 1.35 (Unibet) 3pts

Liamoo to win Melfest jury @ 10 (Unibet) 1pt

Cornelia should win the jury, especially with the Western bias this year. Liamoo however poses a threat with a slick competent package that jurors usually aim for. Whilst I have backed Cornelia to win the jury, I have put a small amount on Liamoo as a cover as odds of 10.0 are way too long imo.

My overall prediction for this year is:

1. Cornelia
2. Anders
3. Liamoo