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After a disastrous placing last year Germany hands power back to the people with their new selection show: “Germany 12 points”.

Whilst most of these songs are decent and radio friendly there isn’t much that would light up the scoreboard at the contest.

Felicia Lu with “Anxiety” is the clear standout for me. It is a well produced electro-pop song with an important message. The fast paced structure of the song is something that makes it stand out. On top of this, Felicia has already created a revamp which will be performed live tonight. I understand that this new version is more “Eurovision friendly” with peaks and troughs added as well as a pop-rock ending. Felicia herself seems very enthusiastic about the contest and her homemade music video is particularly impressive.

The only other song that I think would avoid last at ESC is Malik Harris with “Rockstars.” This is another well produced radio friendly pop song. I can see this having potential as it has elements of Roman Lob. I also believe it is the highest charting of the entries on the German radio airplay chart. However, I have some concerns about how this will be performed and Malik has also been drawn in slot 1.

A potential wildcard is “Hallo Welt.” This attempts to be an uplifting number about forgetting the worlds problems. The lyrics have been changed for tonight to reflect the situation in Ukraine. This could do very well with the older audience that tend to watch German NFs. I also believe the staging will very much focus on war issues. This could be a big factor in getting sympathy votes tonight.

Felicia Lu should win this but there are still some concerns. Felicia should win the online radio voting as I think fans will make up a large % of these votes. However, Hallo Welt is drawn in last and can tap into the mood of the nation. Something to consider is that there is a Ukraine solidarity programme airing before the NF, which could affect the feelings of TV viewers. The older demographics of the NF viewers could also hurt Felicia here.

Recommended bet:

Back Felicia Lu to win @ 1.58 (Betway) 3pts

Back Nico Suave & Team Liebe to win @ 17 (Betway) 1pt

The run of Mello heats comes to a close tonight at the iconic Friends Arena. Last week saw a shock with Faith snatching a final spot at the last minute. Let’s take a look at what we have in store for tonight.

This heat has a clear top 3 which are tough to separate. Klara takes the traditional pimp slot with “Run To The Hills.” I had high hopes for Klara because of rumours that she had a strong song & big staging. Yet after watching the rehearsals it’s clear she hasn’t brought a Mello winner. “Run To The Hills” is an EDM banger with a superwoman themed staging. The song sounds dated to me but Klara is a very likeable performer. She has improved her vocal significantly over the last few days. Klara performs very well with younger groups and in combination with the pimp slot, I’m expecting her to win the semi.

Anna Bergendahl completes her trilogy of recent entries with “Higher Power.” This is much more country than her previous numbers and I think this is by far her weakest. Whilst the staging concept is quite cool it is way too dark. On top of this, Anna has struggled vocally in rehearsals. I also think she struggles with stage presence without accompanying dancers. However, we know based on past data the strength Anna has with older voters and this is significant for the 2nd round of voting.

Angelino’s “The End” is arguably the strongest song of the heat. It is a subtle pop ballad inspired by Duncan Laurence and Tom Walker. I would have preferred for this to be staged with Angelino at the piano but he still sells the song well despite a lack of prior experience. I can also see this having cross-generational appeal which is important for the 2nd round. There are still questions over if this will appeal to the Swedish audience, I am taking the bet that it does.

The battle for 4th place is also a tough one to call. I am leaning towards Medina taking this slot. They have a fun number which sounds like Liamoo’s “Bluffin” in the verses but then has an eastern/oriental sound in the chorus. There is a lot of production behind this, but sometimes it feels like the performers lack energy. It is difficult to predict how Tenori will place due to lack of precedent. However, I think this will have some appeal to older age groups that should save it from the bottom 2. Malin Christian is bringing a gentle Swedish ballad, in the same vain as Lovad from 2021. This is performed better but it is still uncompetitive. I still think it has the capability of avoiding last place, as these sort of ballads have avoided the bottom in this years heats. Lilyaster’s number is executed poorly. Whilst they had some success last year, I find this entry to be unmemorable and a potential outsider for last place.

Recommended bets:

Back Median to Qualify for the Semi Final @ 2.2 (Unibet)

Back Lilyaster for Last Place @ 6.5 (Unibet) (Small stake)

Lay Anna Bergendahl to Qualify for the final @ 1.55 (Betfair Exchange)

After a successful week, we take another dive into previewing the national finals set to air tonight.

Croatia: Dora 2022

The quality of Dora has diminished this year compared to previous. However I still see 3 standout entries that can make the Eurovision final. Mia Negovetić returns for her 3rd year with a different style. “Forgive Me” is clearly inspired by Husvaik with some Disney elements. I think this would be a decent entry at ESC and score well. Mia should be able to deliver this well attracting both televotes and jury points. The only concern is her slot 2 in the running order, although the running order was drawn randomly this year so it’s not really a sign of producer intent.

Marko Bosnjak is a talent show winner and his all Croatian entry, “Moli za nas” is an atmospheric midtempo number. Marko should be able to attract jury support as well televotes due to his previous talent show history. However I do have some concerns about his live performance capability, looking at Youtube he has not performed on live TV for years which may make him vulnerable. Mia Dimsic is another somewhat famous entrant and she is bringing a Taylor-Swift inspired song, “Guilty Pleasure”. Mia benefits from the luck of the draw having been placed last. Again, she should be able to score well with both constituencies.

I see this final coming down to a battle of the Mia’s. Although the running order benefits Mia D, I think it will be 3rd time lucky for Mia N.

Recommended Bet:

Back Mia N to win Dora @ 2.5 (Smarkets) 3pts

Back Mia D to win Dora @ 4.5 (Smarkets) 1pt

Poland: Tu bije serce Europy

After initially opting for internal selection, Poland has switched to a national final after their internal jury struggled to make a decision.

On paper, this should be a runaway win for Ochman. He is by far the best candidate and would almost certainly secure a top 10 finish. Although, I personally find the song disjointed he would be able to secure significant jury support as well as diaspora televote.

However, Polish NFs have known to be messy. Most notably, in 2016 Poland gained favourite status on the outright yet she missed out. Daria’s “Paranoia” could be a challenger here. It is last in the running order and has been a huge hit in Poland charting at #1 and has over 10m views on Youtube. Daria also has strong ties to TVP having performed at many of their events. Nevertheless, there are concerns about Daria’s live performance. Previous performances have shown her to lack charisma and struggle vocally.

The voting system for Poland tonight hands disproportionate influence to jurors so there may be some dark arts at play. I have personally laid small stakes on Ochamn and would advise the same.

Recommended bet:

Lay Ochman to win Tu bije serce Europy @ 1.3 (Betfair Exchange) – Small stakes only!

Norway: Melodi Grand Prix 2022

Norway has the blockbuster selection for tonight after weeks of agonising heats.

Subwoolfer leads the pack as an odds on favourite. They are leading all stats clearly, they’re the only song charting in the spotify top 100 and have the most Youtube views. Questions about their identity have led them to gain press coverage. Their songs is quite well produced. I was underwhelmed slightly by their performance and felt they could have done much more, but they are deservedly favourites.

Elsie Bay was the pre-live favourite but after a disappointing first heat performance she has drifted out. However, she has stated significant changes have been made. This is by far the strongest song in the selection, but there issue is with the staging and the connection with the audience. Elsie does benefit from being last in the running order.

The other major contender I see is NorthKid. Their performance was perceived very positively on Norweigan social media. In addition to this, I believe they are the only act from North Norway. They should benefit from regional voting, particularly with the return of unlimited SMS voting. However, NorthKid face an uphill climb to make it to the gold duel from slot 2 in the running order.

The other contenders for a space in the top 4 include Maria Mohn, the last chance winner, who has a viking song and a strong narrative about her ill son. Maria should benefit from having performed on TV 3 weeks in a row now. Oda’s “Hammer of Thor” is also a well performed viking song. However, any chances of this taking the crown have been buried by her opening the show. Sofie’s, “Made of Glass” is a Morland written ballad that is well produced. Yet, I had concerns about her live performance which I perceived to be overly shouty and lacked an emotional connection. She will also suffer from Elsie Bay coming up much later.

Whilst this looks like it should be a landslide win for Subwoolfer, there are concerns with how they could do in a duel. The extent to which there is an anti-vote in Norway for them is unknown. If they face NorthKid in the gold duel, there is a strong chance they lose but I can see them easily beating off Elsie Bay.

Recommended bet:
Back Subwoolfer to win MGP @ 1.65 (Bettson) 3pts

Back NorthKid to win MGP @ 11 (Unibet) 1 pt

Thanks to the people at SVT, I was given accreditation to view the rehearsals. I’ll be providing my thoughts on the numbers as I saw them.

1. Liamoo – Bluffin

Songwise I think is one of the strongest numbers we have seen in recent years. It is a combination of The Weeknd with Eric Saade’s “Every Minute” but much more accessible and poppy. Liamoo sells the song well and is very charismatic. However the issue is that the staging is quite minimalistic with no backing dancers. Liamoo is left to carry the performance all by himself. This is easily the winner of tonight’s heat and should be set for top 3 in the final. Yet, I don’t think it has that winning element.

2. Niello & Lisa Ajax – ‘Tror Du Att Jag Bryr Mig’

Contrary to others I am quite a big fan of this number. The song itself is catchy and a toe-tapper. I think this is the music that Swedes listen to outside of Mello. In the rehearsal, Ajax performed excellently. The pair work well together. Although, there are concerns about Niello’s vocals but he has improved throughout the week. Ajax has made the 2nd chance 2 out of 3 times she has performed. I’m expecting this to sneak a 4th place with Ajax’s young fans coming to the rescue.

3. Samira Manners – ‘I Want To Be Loved’

This is staged quite nicely with a lovely LED backdrop. The camera angles are also great and Samira sells the song down the lens. Yet, I’m not really sure the song is strong enough. It may not connect depending on the mood of the audience or it might!

4. Alvaro Estrella – ‘Suave’

Alvaro’s entry this year is staged more slickly than his previous entries in my number. SJB has thrown in a lot of her trademarks from ESC. Despite this, I don’t think the song has improved that much. I, myself felt quite bored as we have seen it all before.

5. Browsing Collection – ‘Face In The Mirror’

The ladies sell this number very well. They are a charismatic bunch and you can tell they love performing. However, I find the number to be a bit pedestrian. It doesn’t really stand out and doesn’t fit a perfect genre.

6. John Lundvik – ‘Anglavakt’

Songwise this is by far the weakest of John’s entries. It feels like a long 3 minutes and quite flat. However, John does sell the song very well. The emotion comes across very well and the lighting is also quite nice. John is very popular in Sweden and has won a number of reality shows. It will be a tough call whether he takes the 2nd DTF slot.

7. Tone Sekelius – ‘My Way’

This is a very poor performance and feels amateurish. Tone’s vocals are ok but the backing is very heavy. The whole package almost feels like a parody to me. But, I can see Tone avoiding a last place finish due to her fanbase and the narrative of being the 1st ever trans contestant.

My prediction:

1. Liamoo
2. John Lundvik
3. Alvaro Estrella
4. Niello & Lisa Ajax
5. Browsing Collection
6. Tone Sekeliuss
7. Samira Manners

Recommended Bets:

Back Liamoo/John Lundvik to go DTF @ 2.5 (Unibet)

Back Niello & Lisa Ajax to Qualify for the SF @ 2.75 (Unibet)

Today is a blockbuster Super Saturday with the Baltics locking in their choices for Eurovision 2022. I’ll be detailing the bets I made for tonight.

Ukraine – Vidbir:

Ukraine is known for it’s chaotic national finals and today looks set to be no different. I backed Alina with her song, “Shadows of Forgotten Ancestors” @ 2.45. This song has elements of Jamala’s “1944”. With the current situation I also feel like this song will connect even more with the audience. Alina benefits from the pimp slot and her connections with Jamala and Tina Karol are well known. There are some concerns about the televote though, a minor hate campaign has brewed against her with rumours spreading she has visited Crimea in the past. To cover for this I backed Wellboy @18.5, he looks to be the televote favourite with his song trending on Youtube at #2. I still expect the juries to push through Alina.

Latvia – Supernova:

This is probably the toughest of tonight’s selections to call. Aminata only finished 6th in the televoting in the semifinals, however we know that she was performing from home whilst ill. The producers are looking to push her through by giving her the pimp slot. The jury is also back in Supernova with a 50% stake, which is convenient. I am expecting Aminata’s televote score to improve tonight as she can elevate the song even more live in the studio. There are a number of novelty songs which I can see splitting the vote with each other. All in all, I think the producers will do their job and help Aminata over the line.

Recommended bet:

Back Aminata to win Supernova @ 2.6 (Smarkets)

Lithuania – Pabandom iš naujo! 2022:

This selections looks like a done deal for Monika Liu. She is by far the biggest name and will rack up a huge televote score. In addition to this, we know through the semifinal results that she is loved by the jury. I was luckily able to get Monika @ 1.84 on Smarkets. I would recommend still backing her at a short price as I consider this a done deal.

Estonia – Eesti Laul 2022:

Stefan seems the runaway winner with his country-twinged pop song “Hope.” This is by far the strongest entry for Eurovision, I think it would get a respectable placing. However Stefan’s odds of 1.3 to win Eesti Laul seem too short, this is a similar placing to Elina’s La Forza. I did manage to back Stefan @ 2.2 on Betfair Exchange.

The biggest challenger to Stefan in my opinion is Anna Sahlene with her anthemic cliche pop song, “Champion.” Anna is by far the strongest performer and she elevates her song to another level. She is accompanied by 2 famous Estonian backing singers, who should help her televote. There is also a 20 year narrative at play with Anna having represented Estonia in 2002. I expect this to come 2nd.

Recommended bets:

Back Stefan to win Eesti Laul @1.5 (Cool Bet) 3 pts

Back Anna Sahlene to win Eesti Laul @ 24 (Smarkets) 1 pt

After 2 successive last place finishes Ireland heads back to the notorious Late Late Show selection format.

Brooke’s “That’s Rich” is a clear stand out. It is a funky pop feminist number with influences from Olivia Rodrigo. It is by far the stand out contender and Ireland’s best chance of making it out of the semi finals. The modern production should mean that Brooke wins the international jury vote. She is from Northern Ireland and should benefit from a strong regional bloc vote. There are some concerns at how it will come across on the late late studio stage but Brooke is a seasoned performed having finished 3rd on The Voice UK.

Brooke’s biggest competitors are buried away in slot 1 and 2, Patrick and Janet. Both are good vocalists and have connections with RTE. However their songs are just not strong enough to stand out. The selection is quite ballad heavy and these songs are likely to blend into one, although I suspect one of Patrick or Janet will win the Irish jury vote.

A possible long shot contender is 2017 Eurovision entrant, Brendan Murray. His song, “Real love” has undergone a revamp and sounds much more closer to his style than his 2017 entry. Brendan is a strong vocalist and is likely to bring a minimalist intimate staging that will be well liked. If Brooke’s staging goes wrong, this could end up as an accidental winner much like Molly Sterling in Ireland’s 2015 selection.

Recommended bets:

Back Brooke to win Eurosong 2022 @ 2.3 (Betfair) 3 pts

Back Brendan Murray to win Eurosong 2022 @ 13 (Betfair) 1 pt

Last week saw a big shock with barely mentioned Frode beating out favourite Eline Noela in the gold duel. Although Eline performed her song very well, as expected it was a polarising performance which allowed for the bland but competent Frode to edge out.

This week’s is another that is too close to call with the 4 entrants all different genres. Farida’s “Dangerous” is a very competent Bond ballad sharing some similarities with Elsie Bay. Based on social media videos it looks like Farida will deliver this well and only simple staging is needed. There is a danger the 100% app vote means that viewers will want something more uptempo and positive.

Steffen Jakobsen is the favourite tonight with his country pop song, “With Me Tonight”. These country pop Victor Crone like songs tends to do well in the nordics. However with this entry, there is an element of cheesiness that could put off many viewers. Steffen will face off Lily Löwe, who is bringing a rock song. Her entry, “Bad Baby” is very much in the similar vain as Jorn last year. She is a strong character, however I think the duel system means that voters will go for the more accessible Steffen.

At the bottom of the odds is Daniel Lukas with his Norweigan pop song, “Kvelertak”. This is a competent pop song but I can see it faltering on stage. I don’t think he will be making any waves tonight.

I would advise to wait in play if you’re wanting to make any bets, as staging again will decide this too close to call heat. However I think the edge goes to Farida. If we have learnt anything from last week, the duel system means competency wins. Her ballad is very accessible and I am expecting a good performance.

Recommended bets:

Back Farida – Dangerous to win MGP heat 2 @ 3.75 (Unibet)

Norway kicks off its selection show with the first heat tonight where 4 acts will battle it out via a duel format to earn a place at the finale.

Duel 1: Eline Noelia vs Mira Craig

Eline Noelia is set to start the show with a unique electro-pop song, “Ecstasy”. This will be a very difficult song to pull off live but going through Eline’s social media where she has posted previous performances she looks like she has the ability to pull it off. However there are a number of red flags. The song is very jarring with a very unusual drop which I am not sure the public will warm to. Mira Craig is a previous MGP winner as a songwriter in 2008 and her entry, “Hold On Be Strong” very much sounds like it comes from the same. I’m expecting Eline to take this duel.

Duel 2: Trollfest vs Frode Vassel

Trollfests’ ‘Dance Like A Pink Flamingo’ is an uptempo punk novelty song that is sure to attract lots of votes. They are also likely to bring a novelty staging, possibly with a gimmick. Frode Vassel has had plenty of Eurovision experience having helped JOWST, Rybak and KEIINO. His song, “Black Flower”, which focuses on climate change is unlikely to pose any threat in this duel.

Overall winner: This is a very tough heat to call and one where the duel system creates even more uncertainty. Both Trollfest and Eline Noelia are likely to attract negative votes. Staging is likely going to call the winner of this one, but I would give the edge to Trollfest.

Recommended bet: Back Trollfest @ 2.75 to win MGP heat 1