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It’s shaping up to be one of the most open Eurovision finals in recent memory. Let’s take a look at the runners and riders ahead of tonight’s grand finale.

Contenders

Estonia: Drawn in slot 3, it’s clear the EBU doesn’t want Tommy Cash anywhere near the crystal trophy. That said, I don’t think the early running order will hurt the televote as much as some fear. Like Israel and Ukraine last year, Estonia’s base will show up regardless. The stats are impressive, and anecdotally, this entry seems to be dominating Eurovision discussion outside the West—more so than Sweden. I still see it as a genuine threat for the televote win, and the odds are good value.

Austria: First up among the serious contenders, and after watching the jury final in full last night, it’s evident the running order isn’t doing JJ any favours. Momentum has dipped slightly in recent days, but this still has a viable path to victory.

In recent years, juries have gravitated towards entries that feel extraordinary—and JJ certainly ticks that box. I don’t see a jury landslide coming from anyone, but Austria is still my pick for jury winner. The televote potential is real too: strong stats across Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube, and broad geographical appeal suggest a likely top-six televote finish. Not out of the race.

The Netherlands: Claude delivered a strong performance at the jury show and should land comfortably in the jury top five. But this is another entry hampered by its position in the running order—followed immediately by Erika Vikman and two more French-language songs in the second half. I’m increasingly doubtful about its televote appeal. C’est la vie hasn’t lit up the charts, and I’m expecting a low three-digit televote score here.

Finland: I’ve been cautious on this all season, but Erika Vikman turned in a show-stopping jury final performance. She’s the biggest star of the year, and the crowd chanting her name post-performance sent the right signal to jurors. While the fanbase is fully behind her, the televote still feels a bit too bubble-bound. I’m going against the grain and predicting higher jury than televote support.

Sweden: The deserved favourite—but not an unbeatable one. The televote is solid, but I think its jury prospects are being underrated. Not every juror is after art-house gloom; those who want a bit of Eurovision fun might well place this clever, credible entry top. Its frontrunner status alone gives it extra weight with both audiences.

Watching last night’s show, it was obvious the running order had been tailored to set Sweden up for success. Portugal flattens the mood, Denmark revives it, and the stage is perfectly prepped. The five-minute break that follows offers another advantage: viewers and jurors alike had time to discuss the odds-on favourite, with the phone lines already open.

France: Louane’s superb jury show has led to a major odds shift in the last 24 hours. It’s a technically accomplished, emotionally impactful performance that jurors should reward. But I remain sceptical about its televote chances. Streaming and social data media suggest this isn’t one that the public have got on board with. Yes, the Big Five often underperform on that side—but Germany is currently outpacing France quite easily. The current odds feel about right.

Others

Israel has struggled to gain traction unlike last year. However, they have their key supporters which will be enough for a top 10 finish. I have been laying this for top 5 since Semi Final 2.

Albania is still a bit of an unpredictable one for me. The diaspora are definitely on board and this will get some neutral televote in the East and South. The big question is their jury score. On paper, this does tick some of their boxes.

Switzerland is a classy performance that should be up their with the juries but a low televote is likely. A similar result to Portugal 2024 can be expected.

Italy is by far the most unpredictable entry of the year for me. There’s potential for it to score decently well on both sides of the scoreboard or get forgotten about after being sandwiched between 2 high intensity performances.

Greece and Poland have both activated their diaspora. A top 10 televote for both is expected but it’s the former with some jury backing that should be putting in a challenge for top 10 with the latter taking a place from 11-15.

Germany has gained momentum on the streaming charts overnight, suggesting televote traction. Tyna gave a respectable jury performance, but the recap clip unfortunately highlights one of her weaker moments—which could cost the duo some jury points.

Outright:

This is one of the most open contests in recent years, with a variety of dynamics at play. My current prediction is a Sweden win—similar to Duncan Laurence’s 2019 victory: second with the televote, third with the jury. As I’ve said, I think Sweden is being underestimated on the jury front.

There’s also a sense that we’re due a winner like this. Sweden’s entry hits that sweet spot between credibility and accessibility—it’s slick, entertaining, and undeniably Eurovision. That combination is one that is hard to beat.

Austria is very much still in the mix, with strong signs of support across the board. France faces a tougher road in my view, especially when you look at the available data.

Prediction:

1. Sweden
2. Austria
3. France
4. Estonia
5. Finland

6-10: Albania, Israel, The Netherlands, Greece and Switzerland

Last: United Kingdom

Recommended bets:

Back Estonia Televote Winner @8 (Unibet)

Back Poland Top 15 @2 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Sweden Top 4 Finish, Finland Top 5 @2.0 (Boyle Sports)

Back Austria, Winner Without Sweden @2.4 (Betfair Exchange)

Lay Luxembourg Top 15 @1.75 (Betfair Exchange)

Already tipped:

Estonia Top 5 @4.5

UK 12 Televote points to Poland @13.0

Greece Top 10 @7.0

An unpredictable Semi Final awaits ahead. Let’s take a look at the runners and riders

Australia kicks off the show with a fun performance. This is well staged but Gojo lacks a bit of stage presence for me. Safely through, regardless.

Montenegro is nice but will be long forgotten by the end of the show.

Ireland is bringing some pleasant bubble gum pop. I can see why some have this through after the audience poll result. For me, this is too static of a performance via the TV feed. Ireland does have some friends here, could be a close one.

Latvia is agreat visual show. Tuesday’s results show that authenticity seems to be winning out, so I understand the shortening on this. I’m expecting top points from Lithuania, Ireland and ROTW which could be enough.

Armenia is very well performed and was one of the stand outs for me from last night. They have a lot of friends in this semi and the nicely added Armenian part is a welcome call to action. The audience poll also shows that there is a neutral vote for this too.

Austria disappointed me. In studio, it is one of my personal favourite but the overly complicated stage show fails to convey the feeling of the song effectively. I am growing cold on the outright chances for this one.

Greece really benefits from coming after a messy UK. Fokas has done a decent job with the staging here. The outfit change at the end is a great moment. The rehearsal views for this entry shows the diaspora is engaged.

Lithuania will be safely through thanks to diaspora and I’m sure there are plenty of fans for this genre.

Malta have really missed the mark with this one. Instead of going down the playful but self-deprecating route the music video did, the liver performance is messy, kitschy and over the top. Considering Malta’s disadvantage in the televote and the up-tempo competition in this semi, Malta is in danger.

Georgia isn’t really worth reviewing.

Denmark’s Sissal is giving it her all, but the staging is simply not enough. The fan vote means this isn’t totally chanceless though.

Czechia is another that suffers from Empty Stage Syndrome. Overall, it’s a nice performance but will this really be anyone’s favourite? The audience poll is a real cause for concern.

Luxembourg was the performance of the night for me. Laura’s charisma really shines through and the visual storytelling is fantastic. It’s one that could score decently with both sides of the scoreboard on Saturday night.

Israel feelscold despite the golden curtain moment at the end. Yuval has struggled with the vocal at different points. Like many of the other contenders, they have failed with the storytelling.

Serbia really benefits by coming after a vocally vulnerable Germany. This is much better in full than the short rehearsal clip. It’s diaspora delighting and should get some neutral vote.

Finland’s Erika delivers a showstopping performance to close out the Semi Finals. This is a great pimp slot act. I’ve been pessimistic on Erika’s chances in the past but it did feel like a Semi winning performance.

Qualification market:

This is one of the most unpredictable semi-finals in recent memory, with only Georgia and Montenegro appearing truly out of contention. Greece’s rehearsal buzz on social media has been very positive, which nudges me toward including it as a likely qualifier. Armenia also looks strong mathematically, and audience polls suggest it can pick up neutral support—so it’s also on my likely list.

Czechia feels particularly vulnerable. With little regional or diaspora support and a performance that may struggle to connect, I fear Adonxs may be heading for an early exit.

Serbia has a strong record, with their lowest ever semi-final finish being an 11^th place. Princ delivers a diaspora pleasing performance and should get some of the mum vote.

If Semi-Final 1 taught us anything, it’s that authenticity resonates. Latvia’s entry will have its fans so I’m leaning towards that squeezing into the 10th spot.

Malta has a fanbase, but the performance is too over-the-top. Coupled with its usual televote challenges, it might not be enough to carry them through.

Outright market:

Both France and Austria left me underwhelmed last night. As mentioned earlier, Austria’s performance risks being too complex for a broad audience and may struggle to create an emotional connection. France, while pleasant, loses momentum quickly—the concept feels repetitive after the first minute and lacks a compelling narrative. As a result, the advantage clearly shifts to Sweden and the Netherlands.

10 qualifiers: Australia, Latvia, Armenia, Austria, Greece, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Serbia, Israel and Finland

1. Finland
2. Israel
3. Austria
4. Luxembourg

Recommended bets:

Back Greece, Lithuania and Armenia to Q @3.0 (William Hill)

Already tipped:

Back Armenia to Q @2.4

Back Ireland to NQ @1.8

Another year of Mello madness comes to a close tonight in Solna. Let’s take a look at the runners and riders.

Despite placing 2nd in their heat, KAJ are the odds on favourite for televote victory this evening. Their post heat momentum showcases the story of this year’s Mello. #1 on Spotify breaking Tattoo’s record, #1 on Youtube and an audience poll victory at last night’s jury show. The media narrative of David vs Goliath, KAJ vs Mans helps them too, with many comments from Swedes suggesting it’s time they switch things up a little bit.

While it’s easy to see why they’re the favourites in the televote, the age-group voting system could still pose a challenge. Their lead over Måns, who I expect will pick up 10s with the younger groups and 12s with the older, may not be enough to secure the overall victory.

It’s clear that jurors will decide the Melfest champion tonight and without a doubt they will prefer Måns slick, Eurovision ready performance. However, we have already seen this in this year’s selections and through trends at Eurovision, that jurors aren’t afraid to go for more unconventional packages. KAJ’s entry is novelty done perfectly right, straddling both credible and fun just exactly right. If Medina could place 3rd with the jurors last year, this almost certainly has every chance. But, my worry is that it could take just one jury to cost them their victory. Whilst i’m sure that Norway, Ireland and Lithuania will reward KAJ with high points, i’m not so sure the same could be said about Greece. Ultimately, I could see either Måns or KAJ but it’s for this reason why i’m anticipating a narrow Måns victory.

Greczula stands out in this lineup for his raw authenticity and undeniable rock star presence. He’s likely to score well across both juries and age groups, making a top-three finish a strong possibility. Several jury nations—particularly France, Switzerland, and Italy—seem well-positioned to reward his style. On paper, Klara’s entry has the ingredients for both jury and televote appeal. However, a less-than-perfect jury performance, a disappointing audience poll result, and failing to win her heat suggest that a bottom-half finish is well within the realm of possibility.

Both John Lundvik and Erik Segerstedt seem to be fishing in the same pond for jury and older age group points. It’s the latter, who I think comes out stronger from this matchup with his more impressive streaming statistics. A mid table finish for both is what I am expecting.

We already know that Scarlet haven’t fared well with the televote age group system in both of their Mello appearances but jurors should sprinkle this some points due to their creativity and strong vocal display. Meira is one of the breakout stars from this year’s Mello and i’m sure we’ll see her again soon. Some consistent middling televote scores with high jury points from the 2 balkan countries could see her hit the top 6. Saga, the unexpected heat winner, delivers a solid performance that should earn her some jury support and moderate televote scores, likely placing her somewhere between 7th and 10th.

The last place market is one of the most interesting betting opportunities this season. Since the age group system’s inception, last place has gone to either a heat runner up or Andra Chansen qualifier. Dolly Style have had some great streaming numbers, however their support is significantly concentrated in the 2 youngest age groups meaning they are vying for last place. Maja appears to be getting quite a lot of love with the older age groups on social media and her entry does feel “different” enough to get a random high jury placing with a country and avoid last place. Annika is the odds on favourite for last place, but much like Faith Kakembo in 2022, I think this is mispriced. While Annika has the weakest streaming numbers, her standout vocals are by far the strongest in the lineup. Her performance checks all the right boxes for jurors, and a top-five jury placement, just like she received last year, wouldn’t be surprising in the slightest.

Recommended bets:

KAJ Over 141.5 points @2.30 (Unibet)

Annika Wickihalder Over 37.5 points @2.10 (Unibet)

Maja Ivarsson Under 55.5 points @2.10 (Unibet)

Prediction:

1. Mans Zelmerlow
2. Kaj
3. Greczula
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

After a tumultuous 48 hours let’s dive into some analysis for tonights show:

The Contenders

The outright market was thrown into chaos after RAI “accidentally” leaked that Israel attained 40% of the Italian vote during semi final 2 – a colossal share of the vote, 10% higher than what Kalush Orchestra managed to achieve in 2022. What’s noticeable to me is that the semi final was broadcast on RAI 2, suggesting that the audience and voters skewed younger, and yet the margin was so huge. Israel’s outright price has dramatically shortened into 4s. As someone who was backing Israel at around odds of 55 during the expulsion drama earlier in the season, an Israel win would likely be the best financial outcome for me. I can easily see the Italian televote result being replicated across the continent, for example newspaper polls in Sweden and Norway show large support for the Israeli entry. Mainstream media in the UK has been dominated with discourse around the Israeli entry and social media conversations suggest there is widespread sympathy for Eden Golan, which i’m sure will only be amplified if booing can be heard through the TV feed. I think Israel’s televote will be lower than Ukraine 2022, as support for Israel does vary country by country. Instead I think they’re heading for a televote in the area of 370-395 points, which means it all comes down to the jury. Eurojury tells us that there will be a high variation in the points Israel receives, some juries completely blanking them whilst others showering them with high points. The latest leak from RAI is just going to intensify this. In the end it seems like this years contest will come down to what influence delegations will have on their jurors.

The producers have made it clear that Croatia is the chosen one, plumping it in slot #24 whilst Israel is buried in slot #6 (number 5 now technically). Baby Lasagna delivered a fantastic performance at yesterdays jury show. He exuded star quality and charisma, coming across more like Maneskin than Kaarija. I’m expecting Croatia to now be comfortably in the jury top 4. Croatia has decent post-semi final stats too, doing well on Spotify, Apple Music and social media. However, my main concern is whether Croatia can get enough televote to keep the margin close between themselves and Israel. I’m not fully confident considering that I believe Ukraine will beat them in a decent number of countries. I think it’s highly unlikely that the general public will know to tactically vote for Croatia, instead anti-Israel votes are more likely to go to an act that has been visibly pro-Palestine (Ireland). Baby Lasagna was also unable to win the audience poll in a landslide, unlike Kaarija last year. However, jurors are much more likely to be in the know. Like in Sanremo 2024, when they knew they had to unify behind Angelina Mango to stop the televote titan, it’s the same here with Baby Lasagna. The disqualification of Netherlands has also thrown a curveball. I believe those that those who were probably going to vote for the Netherlands will be switching their vote to Croatia, who now hoovers up the fun vote. This controversial decision could make the difference.

France has had very strong stats for a big 5 country. Slimane’s performance on Thursday was objectively excellent and felt like a real moment with his world class delivery. France has been given a perfect running order slot and this is the type of performance that I think casuals, particularly older voters, can really fall in love with. The main worry with France is that Slimane’s vocal in yesterdays jury final was far from his best. I’m not totally convinced that it will make a major difference in his placing, but it could cost him a few points. A poor vocal in the final performance this evening on the other hand, could have a sizeable impact on his televote score. At the moment, it feels like too much of a risky bet with his current vocal capacity being the big unknown.

Switzerland’s Nemo has also been given a fantastic running order slot. After Slimane’s less than perfect jury show performance, Switzerland has been cemented as the favourite for jury winner. Whilst Switzerland’s live stats during semi final 2 were underwhelming the song has been doing decently on streaming since. The audience poll also suggests that this definitely has some love from the public. If it can get a 300+ jury haul, it still has a path to victory.

Ukraine are the sacrificial lamb of this years contest being placed into the death slot #2. “Teresa and Maria” has had some excellent post-show stats on social media and streaming services, exceeding my expectations. I think it’s clear from their burial in the running order that Ukraine had a strong result in semi final 1. Ukraine is arguably the least running order dependent of all the contenders. The diaspora was always going to turn out whatever number slot they were given, in fact looking at social media comments – it seems they are even more motivated because of how the girls have been treated by the producers. Whilst they’re no longer in contention for winning, a top 3 placing isn’t impossible.

Top 10

After initially being sceptical of Ireland early in the season, it’s one of my biggest top 10 bets having backed this @4s before rehearsals. Bambie has gone viral across the continent on both social media and mainstream media. Of course, a lot of this will be people watching as they’re curious about what is going on but there is a lot of positive sentiment. It’s noticeable that on streaming, Ireland has performed better in the East. I think Bambie will be able to garner a lot of support from the younger and more rebellious generations in Eastern Europe. From a jury perspective, many will despise this but others should appreciate its originality and cinematic quality. I am quite confident this will make the top 6 of the overall televote. Greece is an entry that i’ve been 50/50 about making top 10 over this week. However, Marina performed at her best last night. The Youtube views clearly show that the Greek diaspora is motivated to turn out and i’m expecting 100+ televote points. It has a great running order too. The disqualification of the Netherlands should marginally help this too as I’m expecting Greece to get a lot of middling televote points. Italy should be comfortably heading for the top 10 of course, with lots of jury support and a decent televote. Sweden is also a country which I’ve been backing for top 10 earlier in the season, which i’m not totally sure about anymore. I have it marginally in, as juries should respect the world class quality of the performance. Voting opening from the start helps them too considering the demographics of their support. I had hopes that Armenia could become Moldova 2022 2.0 but the reception it’s received so far suggests otherwise. I still expect a strong Eastern televote putting it into the top 15. Georgia is one which I had counted out of being in contention for top 10 but have recently changed my mind. Nutsa is a world class star and the juries should reward this. The performance is anthemic and uplifting, despite its dated nature. Nutsa has a huge international team behind her too which can be handy in getting some jury and tele love, especially from the balkan area.

Other markets

I was pleased to see Latvia qualify after backing them @7.6 in play. Dons has a brilliant running order for jurors, following Estonia, Spain and Ireland. I think jurors will love the classiness of the whole package, in the same way they took a liking to “Bridges” last year. The UK has been going through the motions over this week, but Olly delivered a great performance last night. There’s a chance that this could do quite well with the jury, keeping it in contention for Top 15. Norway has had a poor reception since its semi final performance and I can’t see many juries liking the piercing vocal, it’s one i’m opposing in the top 15 market. Dream Team entries have usually done ok in the final so i’ve had a small bet on Cyprus cracking the top 15. In terms of last place, i’m siding with the market with this one on Spain. Yes it’s a crowd please, but in a year of heavy televote hitters I don’t see this getting into many televote top 10s.

Thanks for following this season and good luck everyone!

Prediction:

1. Croatia
2. Israel
3. Switzerland
4. France
5. Ukraine

6-10: Italy, Ireland, Greece, Sweden and Georgia

Recommended bets:

Back Latvia Top 15 @2.36

Back Ukraine, Israel and Switzerland Top 5 Finishes & Ireland Top 10 Finish @ 3.0 (SkyBet)

Back Spain Last Place @3.7 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Cyprus to beat Slovenia @1.57 (SkyBet)

Back Cyprus Top 15 @3.6 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Georgia to beat Norway @1.61 (StarSports Bet)

Back Israel to beat Switzerland @1.83 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Lay Norway Top 15 @2.06 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Georgia Top 10 @2.8 (Betfair Exchange)

Croatia, Switzerland & Israel Top 5 Finish, Ireland, France & Ukraine Top 10 Finish @2.25 (SkyBet)

And finally considering it’s the televote favourite and I have already tipped Croatia to win, I believe Israel @4 (each way) with William Hill is a necessary cover.

Already tipped:

Latvia Top Baltic @8.0

Sweden Top Nordic @2.04

UK tele 12 to Israel @2.5

Israel Top 10 @2.2

Croatia to win Eurovision 2024 @2.24

Back France to beat Italy @2.25

Back France Top Big 5 @2.1

Ukraine each way to win @13

France each way to win @18

Armenia Top 10 @2.78

Back Sweden Top Nordic @1.8

Israel Top 5 @3.75

After a few surprises in semi final 1 let’s see what semi final 2 has in store for us:

Safe Qualifiers

Switzerland’s Nemo has brought impressive staging that creates an epic feeling. Jurors will of course love this for its technicality and strong overall impression. I’m not totally convinced by its televote appeal just yet, it feels like there is a lot going on without a key message/theme or storytelling. Although, its strong audience poll result means we can’t rule out it out of victory contention just yet. The Netherlands have gone all in on the the televote route, turning up the comedy with the staging. The pimp slot should do its job and see this handily win the semi final. However, this certainly won’t be fighting for the Eurovision trophy, as it’s simply just too comedic for jurors. Yet, I can still see it getting a very good televote score that places it in the 4th-6th range of the final standing. Israel is the big unknown in this years contest. Eden’s performance of Hurricane is quite boring. They have gone down quite a theatrical staging direction, which could help its jury score a little bit. Last night, booing was audible on the TV heard. If we see that again tonight, it’s the ultimate vote motivator for Israel supporters. Armenia is one that I have been hopeful of in terms of reaching the top 10 in the final, however the live performance is missing something for me. Greece is fun and enjoyable but the staging is a missed opportunity. Although I think the last minute is great, there’s no real coherence in the performance and it lacks a cultural identity that there is in the music video. Marina’s vocal has been a bit off too. Looking at the final, I think a result in the 9-13th range is still possible. Norway significantly underperformed my expectations with the audience poll. I think it suffers coming after Israel and all the distractions during that performance. If booing is audible during Israel tonight then viewers too could also be very distracted, which isn’t what Norway wants. I find her vocal at ESC to be even more piercing when compared to MGP but I still think it can score decently well in the North and East. Georgia’s Nutsa is an amazingly talented artist and gives it her all on stage. I find that there is something missing with the overall package and it does come across dated. She will sail through to the final but i’m a bit sceptical about how high she can go in the final.

Borderlines and the rest

There had been some doubt about Estonia this week but the performance has been polished compared to Eesti Laul and still retains its fun. I have it going through comfortably now. Belgium’s Mustii performed twice last night and his vocal during the verses was noticeably poor. This afternoon, he did improve. My main concern with Mustii has always been his aloofness and how voteable this is. However, the song seems strong enough to go through and has a target audience that should help it over the line. Although, I think if one of the odds on 10 fails, it’ll be this one. Austria’s Kaleen has a fun performance but is noticeably lacking confidence. The backing track is loud but you are able to notice some vocal vulnerabilities. There is potential for this to end up being Halo 2.0, but I think there’s enough entertainment value and fans voting in the semi which should see it through in 9-10th place. Malta‘s Sarah is a great performer but suffers in the running order with 2 more girlbops following on later. I imagine that we’ll be seeing a lot of comparisons to Chanel and female “copycats” have never gone down well with the public. Latvia is as competent as ever but I think the performance is just a bit too boring for viewers to be remembering this when the lines open. Denmark is competent but feels too safe in a televote semi final. Saba was noticeably struggling last night too. Czechia are delivering a great performance. I’m still not sure about how voteable this is but it does have its fans and the genre is currently popular with younger generations which means it’s not completely hopeless. San Marino has been getting some hype over the last 24 hours. The staging for this is stunning and there’s some great visual storytelling. Megara have done everything they can to put themselves in contention and help from Spain and Italy means they’re firmly in the mix. Albania has about every friend they could ask for in this semi but will they turn out is the big question. I tipped this before at 3s but since then, it’s clear that the Eurovision performance is pretty weak. We’ve seen from Luna that diaspora just won’t show up if the performance is bad, but it does seem like the Albanian diaspora is more patriotic. Their last english language entry scored 38 points, so they’re still in the mix for tonight.

Big 5: Italy are on the drift after a decent performance but that’s where the issue lies with this. It was just decent, not excellent. After watching this twice, it’s clear the staging has gone down the wrong direction and the performance has lost the charisma we all saw at Sanremo. France is an act which I was initially sceptical at the start of the season, but this is performed excellently. It now appears to be a lot more softer than aggressive, which is what it was appearing to me in previous performance. Spain is still my pick for last place.

Predicted qualifiers: Switzerland, Netherlands, Israel, Armenia, Greece, Norway, Estonia, Belgium Austria and Georgia

Recommended bets:

Back Netherlands To Win Semi Final 2, Georgia & Estonia Both To Qualify @2.20 (William Hill)

Back Israel Top 3, Norway, Greece & Armenia to Qualify @2.1 (StarSports Bet)

Back France to beat Italy @2.25 (Unibet)

Back France Top 5 @2.1 (SkyBet)

Back Sweden Top Nordic @1.8 (Unibet)

Already tipped:

Albania to Q @3.0

Netherlands to win SF2 @2.0

Israel Top 3 in Semi @2.2

After watching yesterday’s preview show, let’s delve into tonight’s first Eurovision semifinal.

Winner and Top 3 market:

Croatia has shortened to as low as 2.0 with high street bookies for the overall Eurovision win over the last 24 hours. Baby Lasagna impressed me yesterday and has improved his vocals significantly since Dora. The whole package feels a lot more epic with SVT production and an arena crowd. Yesterday was the first time where I felt that this is clearly the one to beat. Ukraine is an entry that I have been pretty optimistic about over the last few weeks. I think this is an excellent performance, although I can understand why there has been a bit of a drift. It feels like the team have packed too many ideas into this. The staging, with its themes of war, religion, and feminism, feels a bit cluttered, but Jerry and Alyona have shown improvement. However, it is possible that there has been a bit of an overreaction with the drift. The full performance leaked on TikTok this morning, hitting almost 1m+ views and the comments are overwhelmingly positive. It’s possible that casuals like this much more than fans. Whilst it is a friendly semi for Ukraine, I’m expecting Croatia to take the win although the margin may be lower than expected. Lithuania is as solid as ever and has a decent number of friends in this semi. However I think it’s just a bit too “lightweight” and early in the semi final running order to make the top 3. Finland has a fantastic running order and should wake up viewers after a bit of a lull in the running order. This one could do relatively better on the Saturday night when there’s more drunk casuals tuning in. At the moment I have it comfortably in the 3rd-5th range for this semi. Those who read my pre-rehearsal preview will recall my recommendation to consider backing Ireland in numerous markets for those seeking trading opportunity. This has played out exactly like I imagined with hype from both the Eurovision fan press and domestic media in Ireland pushing their price to win Eurovision down to as low as 9.0 with Ladbrokes. Bambie Thug’s performance is cinematic and epic. The ending in particular is one of my favourite parts of any performance this season with the pyro and #CrownTheWitch written across the LED screen. Having backed this at 5s for overall top 10 and 6s for semi top 3, I’m very pleased with my position so far. I currently have this 3rd in my semi final projection. Ireland will be helped by the shock factor and there’s a decent number of countries in this semi final who have shown to be appreciative of more alternative Eurovision entries. If Hatari can win their semi final televote then this should be top 3 too. In terms of their final result, I’m of the view that this will place in the lower top 10. However, there is the potential for social media hype possibly pushing this a bit higher. Bambie has “Free Palestine” written on their body and wearing a trans flag dress. Two social messages which could generate hype on social media and create a narrative. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Ireland hitting single figures to win Eurovision on Betfair Exchange soon.

Qualification

Cyprus is bringing a competent performance that is perhaps a bit amateurish, especially coming after an opening number with Chanel and Eleni. Nevertheless, they have enough “friends” to make it through. Luxembourg is closing the show and is also pretty competent and decent. However, the whole package is really lacking a call to action. The producers provide a bit of a push for Luxembourg by interviewing Tali whilst lines are open. Considering the record of pimp slot entries this should be fine. Poland has a poor running order, sandwiched between the giants of Ukraine and Croatia. They do have enough diaspora nations in their semi so should clear a 45 point hurdle. Although there is a risk their diaspora could desert them and support Ukraine instead, considering the success of “Teresa and Maria” in Poland. Iceland and Azerbaijan are hopeless, I have the latter coming last after their really poor performances yesterday. Moldova is pretty nice and gets the crowd clapping along, although I’m not sure there’s a strong enough reason to pick up the phone for this. Especially when there are very strong entries from the East in this semi. Portugal has the penultimate slot. It is a very pleasant number but most importantly it stands out for its sheer quality when compared to the rest of the entries in this half. Although, I think it’s price now is too short considering it doesn’t really have a strong call to action. Slovenia’s Raiven is an extremely talented artist but i’m not convinced about the vote-ability of this package. I struggle to see it getting high points outside the balkans and a few middling points from the East.

I currently have Serbia and Australia fighting for 10th place. Serbia has been drawn in the dreaded slot 2 and does get lost in the whole semi final lineup, especially considering the high quality entries that follow. Moreover, I think Portugal easily beats it in terms of the neutral televote for viewers looking for something a bit classier. I can get Serbia to around 40 points in my projection but if it can achieve beyond this to secure qualification is the big question. It’s also possible diaspora leave Teya behind to support Croatia. Australia has been an entry which I have changed my mind a lot on. Electric Fields aren’t exactly the most convincing artists but it is a fun performance. The didgeridoo creates a good moment on stage too that I think casuals will like. The ESC Bubble panel of casual viewers took a liking to the song which I find interesring. In terms of its path to qualification they should be scoring decently with countries like the UK, Ireland, Sweden, Iceland and Finland. I have them just making it but it will be close and the ROTW vote could make the difference.

Big 5: This year will be the first time we see the big 5 perform live. The UK has visually impressive staging that jurors should reward, although Olly can be a bit vocally off towards the end. I’m less enthusiastic about the televote, especially in the east considering the performance. Germany was enjoyable and performed well. It should be getting enough jury love to avoid last, but the televote will be very low. I was surprisingly most impressed by Sweden. SVT have managed to elevate this from Melfest and the performance feels and looks even more high quality.

Prediction:

1. Croatia
2. Ukraine
3. Ireland

Rest of qualifiers: Cyprus, Luxembourg, Portugal, Finland, Poland, Australia and Lithuania

Recommended bets:

Iceland, Azerbaijan and Serbia to Not Qualify @2.67 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Croatia, Cyprus, Ukraine, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Luxembourg & Finland to Qualify @2.2 (SkyBet)

Croatia, Cyprus, Ukraine, Finland, Lithuania, Ireland and Luxembourg to Qualify @1.83 (SkyBet)

Sweden Top 10 @2.34 (Betfair Exchange)

Croatia to win Eurovision 2024 @2.2 (Betfair Exchange)

Already tipped:

Back Slovenia to NQ @2.0

Back Portugal to Q 1.83

As the pre-party season concludes and the final votes from OGAE and Eurojury are tallied, we stand on the brink of what promises to be one of the most unpredictable Eurovision contests ever. Now, let’s delve into an analysis of the leading contenders!

Switzerland: Nemo’s “The Code” will enter the rehearsal period as the market leader, last matched at 3.3 on Betfair exchange. “The Code” is one of the most modern, unique and dynamic entries this year with a distinctive artist. This entry has much to offer the jurors: they should appreciate its modern vibe, creativity and out of the box nature. However, 3.3 is definitely a price I would not recommend backing. Of the contenders, Switzerland feels the most stage dependent and i’m not confident that they will be able to transfer the feeling and atmosphere from the music video onto the Eurovision stage. Those on the pro-Swiss train had been hoping for a runaway Eurojury win, which did not materialise. At Eurovision, I could see one of France or Italy taking the jury win, considering they appear to be more “agreeable” for jurors. On the televote side it feels highly unlikely this will be in the televote top 3, considering the strength of Netherlands, Croatia, Ukraine and Israel on this side of the vote. Comparisons have been made between Nemo and Conchita but i think this appears to be slightly misguided. Conchita’s performance delivered a clear, powerful message that resonated across demographics and borders. In contrast, there’s a risk that Nemo’s story might not engage or be as easily understood by the audience. Nonetheless, there remains a decent sized path to victory for Switzerland, akin to Conchita’s triumph, which would require an impeccably executed stage presentation that turns their performance into the highlight of the contest—the moment that everyone will be talking about on the Saturday.

Croatia: Baby Lasagna was the market leader for a significant part of the season but will be entering Malmo 2nd in the odds. When the music video for this entry was released I was very optimistic about Croatia’s prospects. ‘Rim Tim Tagi Dim’ is super catchy, almost like a combination of Blind Channel and Kaarija. The message of the song is one which can resonate with millions of Europeans across the continent, not just limited to the balkan region. It manages to be universally accessible whilst retaining a distinct balkan identity. Most importantly, it’s delivered by an extremely likeable character with an underdog story. All these factors mean that it has the potential to rack up a huge televote score at the contest. Eurojury also suggests there can be jury support for this number. The main drawback with this entry so far has been the live execution. The live performance was far from perfect at Dora but it’s hard to make a judgement from that setting. My main concern has been the Kaarija imitations in the staging so far, particularly the lighting and outfit. If I was advising the Croatian team I would suggest focusing more on the “cats” element of the staging, which has meme potential. There is also the possibility that this gets a bit lost in the hype that Netherlands may have during the final week, although 2017 and 2021 show us 2 televote titans can co-exist together. Ultimately, it will come down to the staging changes which are crucial to ensuring Croatia doesn’t come across as a Kaarija tribute act that even Kaarija isn’t supporting.

Netherlands: After drifting out to 600.00 post-song release the current leader in streaming stats, Joost Klein is now in trading in single figures. Joost has an excellent marketing strategy which has helped the song go viral in the Benelux region. While the bulk of the streaming support is originating from this region, if we set aside the figures from the Netherlands and Belgium, the current raw streaming numbers are approximately three times higher than what Kaarija achieved at the same point last year. I currently have this as my televote winner as I anticipate the pro- European message can unite the continent and impact the collective consciousness of viewers. On the jury side, I’m more optimistic than many despite the meh Euorojury score. “Europapa” has all the makings of a huge hit—it’s fresh, modern, and playful. Additionally, the staging team is focusing on enhancing the emotional appeal of the final part of the song to boost its jury appeal. The biggest question for this is how well it can do in the East and South, especially when we have a strong Croatia and Ukraine this year. Some have also questioned how many televote points this can get as we are in a year full of public vote hitters. Whilst this is true, I think in the age of social media and hype – low televote scoring winners seem to be a thing of the past, especially looking at the last 3 contests. The Dutch team seems to be well-prepared; they’ve been working on the staging for 9 months and are keenly aware of the need to impress the jurors. A major advantage for the Netherlands is momentum. With Joost closing the semi-finals, he’s ideally placed to build momentum and potentially have the honour of being “#1 in the bookmakers” on the Friday… a handy signal to send to jurors.

Italy: Angelina Mango’s number has somehow managed to become the most polarising entry amongst the betting community this year. Angelina has a strong Lena aura about her. A very young charismatic likeable performer with an infectious song. Italy has arguably one of the strongest overall packages this year when looking at song, singer and staging. There’s lots for jurors to like here too: a modern song with huge hit potential and a young performer who is able to command the stage at an almost unprecedented level. I guess the biggest concern here is the televote. There’s arguably a lot more entries (NL, CRO, UKR, ISR, GRE) which have a stronger call to action – a reason for people to pick up the phone. Perhaps this entry is just too ordinary? I think this is a decent argument but i’m not totally convinced. With summer approaching around the corner, this song which is crying out to be a European summer smash hit, could fit perfectly with what viewers are wanting. In a year full of crazy songs, this could stand out to televoters simply because of how high quality and classy it is. Ideally Mango would need a running order position in the range of 21-24 to ensure she does stand out. Apart from Mango’s star quality, Italy’s other weapon is Marta Donà – the music manager who propelled Maneskin from X Factor runners up to Grammy nominated superstars. Marta might be the only person in Italy who knows how Eurovision works and has assembled a great team to create a new performance for Eurovision. It would be foolish to rule Italy out considering this team and the great stats so far, hence I’ve kept this green in my outright book.

Ukraine: Matched as low as 3.15 before fading away during March and hitting a high of 21.5, Ukraine has been the entry i’ve probably been the loudest about. I think people have forgotten the reception that Teresa & Maria received upon its release. The song shot straight to #1 in Ukraine and charted in neighbouring countries. Most importantly, the duo received 720,000 votes at Vidbir – simply just a colossal and historic number. Of course there’s also the vast Ukranian diaspora to consider which gives them a huge head start. Given that Tvorchi, an act I believe would not have qualified with any other country, managed to secure 4th place in the televote with 189 points, it’s hard for me to imagine Alyona & Jerry, with a song that resonates with the diaspora, receiving less than about 240 televote points. Let’s not forget that Ukraine are the masters of Eurovision staging too. In interviews, the duo has suggested that their new Eurovision staging will embrace a superwoman/feminist theme—a motif that Eurovision jurors have historically favoured (consider Netta, Tamara, Manizha, and Vesna). They also seem to stand out in this years crazy and party lineup because of the emotional impact they bring. I can totally see the possibility of an outsider Jamala style victory. Even if you don’t see Teresa and Maria as winning material, the math makes it clear to me that this is at least each way value.

Best of the rest: The big unknown in this years contest is Israel’s televote score. There is no negative voting at Eurovision of course so even if Israel scored only around 5% in each countries’ televote – this would still lead to a hefty televote score. We’re already seeing the Israeli team push a “victim” narrative in the media, briefing how it’s not safe for them to leave the hotel and talking about abuse they have faced. Large protests planned in Malmo can feed into this “bullying and hateful” narrative even more, motivating Israeli supporters to vote and creating a sympathy narrative. I imagine some jurors will intentionally blank this, but others could overmark. “Hurricane” is quite a dated X Factor style ballad but it has done decently in Eurojury showing that jurors aren’t afraid to attach their name to this and clearly some older jurors in particular may like this style of vocal acrobatics. For this reason, I have backed Israel heavily in most possible markets. France should be high up with the jury vote, possibly winning, simply because of Slimane’s star quality. I’m not totally convinced about the televote yet but there’s an audience for this. Greece is another i’m optimistic about simply because Zari is one of the most modern and bold entries we’ve ever seen at Eurovision. I disagree with many bettors who think the jury won’t take kindly to this. The powerful Greek diaspora has been missing in action for over a decade but we are expecting their return this year. However, there is a bit of a ceiling for this as Northern Europe will blank this. Looking at other markets, Armenia is one which I think is value for top 10. It has a vibe reminiscent of Moldova’s 2022 entry, possessing a universal appeal to both Eastern and Western audiences, primarily due to its fun and joyous nature.. It has also overperformed in Eurojury. Whilst I have been critical of the UK, it’s likely they will bring excellent staging. I can see it finishing in the lower end of the jury top 10 with some low-mid televote from the Nordic area helping it finish in the top 15 overall. As usual, we can expect UK casuals to come and shorten the price closer to the contest.

Recommended bets:

Back Ukraine to win Eurovision 2024 each way @13.0 (Unibet)

Back Israel Top 5 @3.75 (Boyle Sports)

Back Netherlands to win Eurovision 2024 @7.0 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Armenia Top 10 @2.78-2.75 (Betfair Exchange and Unibet)

Back United Kingdom Top 15 @2.5 (Betfair Exchange)

Another year of Mello madness comes to a close tonight in Friends arena. Let’s take a look at some of the markets on offer tonight!

In terms of the outright, it’s hard to look past a sweeping Marcus and Martinus victory tonight. It seems like their number is the only one that can score very highly with both juries and televote. I started backing M&M for the Mello victory @2.82 during Danny’s underwhelming rehearsals last week so i’m pleased with how events have unfolded. Their overall point score may have some relevance in terms of moving the outright Eurovision market. At Eurovision I anticipate they could get a top 3 jury score with a decent televote.

Looking at the rest of the scoreboard it feels like the outcome come be more random than ever especially compared to last year where the top 3 seemed certain. Jacqline has one of the slickest performances and a song that has a strong international sound which juries should love and i’m expecting her to be in the jury top 2 tonight. However, I still remain a bit sceptical about her televote, especially with the age group system as I guess much of her support is concentrated in the 16-29 group. “Effortless” has underperformed my expectations on streaming platforms and had a dismal showing with yesterdays audience poll placing 8th. I see a lot of similarities with Bluffin from 2022 which was also a heat winner that had a strong international sound that jurors appreciated but faltered with the age group system in the final.

Many of my positions for this Melfest final are on Liamoo. “Dragon” is a safe, accessible mid-tempo pop song slotted into a great running order slot, #10. Liamoo has decent stats when looking at the audience poll and for most of the week was the highest non heat 5 act on Spotify, which was pretty surprising to me as “Dragon” is much better live than in studio. As @euroepiphanies said to me compared to the rest of the lineup, Liamoo’s number feels a lot more “warmer” (both physically and emotionally) than a lot of the colder and slicker performances. Apart from M&M, this is the entry which I think can make top 5 in both jury and televote leading to a high overall placing.

Danny Saucedo‘s streaming stats have been pretty terrible considering he is the biggest name in this lineup. However, on the televote side he should be over performing these stats as this entry is about his charisma/performance rather than the song. The international jury should be knocking this down a few placings considering the dated nature of the package. I had a lay of this making the top 3 at the start of the week and would be shocked if he did make it. Medina have been gaining momentum on streaming all week, increasing their margin over M&M. Interestingly, their pre-performance video clip features them talking about how long it’s been since Sweden sent an entry in Swedish to ESC. Medina did only go DTF by 3 points last week so they don’t fare as strong under the age group system. Their jury score remains a complete mystery to me. In 2022 they shocked many by placing 3rd with the jury. They do have strong USP considering it’s the only song in Swedish, so jurors may reward this. At the same time, the vocals in the first minute could be off-putting for jurors. Smash into Pieces have been quietly rising on streaming throughout the week. Moreover, other stats such as the audience survey and the Aftonbladet poll suggest SIP have a cross-generational appeal that should secure them a televote top 4 placing. They have a USP and rock sometimes overperforms in NF. Like Medina, their jury score is another wildcard although some of the countries on the jury (Australia, Germany, Serbia) look favourable. If they can replicate their 2023 jury showing I would expect them to place in the top 3. Maria Sur is an international fan favourite but has underwhelmed on Spotify. The running order also harms her, considering that there are better slick pop numbers later in the final. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her missing out on the top 6. Dotter has one of the most authentic numbers in this lineup. Hence, there’s a chance she could overperform on the jury side. Although she faces competition from Lisa Ajax and Annika. Dotter has actually done surprising well with domestic streaming but I can only see her getting middling points from all groups.

The last place market is always an exciting one, but 1 random high score from a single jury can often determine the winner of this market. I think this’ll be between Lisa Ajax and Cazzi Opeia. Both Jay Smith and Annika should be getting some jury love and points from the older age groups to comfortably avoid last place. I would lean towards Cazzi being the value pick here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her last with the jury and picking up only some points with the little tots. Lisa has one of the most authentic and emotional numbers, so is more likely to get one of these random high scores from a jury.

With the outright market offering little value here are some different bets i’ll be tipping:

Back Liamoo Top 2 @3.25 (Unibet)

Back Smash Into Pieces Top 5 @1.72 (Unibet)

Back Jacqline Under 114.5 Points @2.10 (Unibet)

Back Cazzi Under 34.5 points @2.4 (Unibet)

Back Annika to beat Cazzi @1.50 (Unibet)

Back Jacqline to beat Maria Sur @1.3 (Unibet)

A long shot: Back SIP Top 3 @5.0 (Unibet)

Already tipped:

Back Liamoo Top 3 @2.75 (Bet365)

Back Liamoo to beat Maria Sur @1.85 (Unibet)

Back Cazzi Last Place @3.5 (Unibet)

Melodifestivalen:

Previous Melodifestivalen Heat 3s have seen viewers “rebel” by opting for more unusual/out of the box numbers that are outsiders in the market. For example, Lina Hedlund’s schlager pop song went DTF in 2019 where it was matched @4s to do so. 2017’s heat 3 that took place in Vaxjo, where tonights show is, saw Owe Thörnqvist shock qualify for the final after being matched @30s in play. I wouldn’t be surprised to see similar surprises tonight.

Jacqline has a slick and modern pop song that wouldn’t sound out of place on Agnes’s last album. Jacqline is a very talented artist and her performance is one of the most professional we’ve seen all national final season. However, I feel that the whole number is just too slick and I am sceptical about how well this is going to connect with Swedes. Especially in Heat 3 when we’ve seen Swedes opt for acts which are more “authentic”. Jacqline’s odds to DTF have been as low as 1.08 at the start of the week and I have been laying from 1.36.

Cazzi Opeia was the audience poll winner yesterday. This is performed well and has some memorable staging which makes it stand out. There’s a few mentions in her postcard that she’s a Eurovision winner with “Tattoo”, which shouldn’t hurt her at all. In a weak heat with the pimp slot this should be enough for DTF. I have Cazzi down as the most likely DTF because I think she has the most consistent support with age groups. In 2022, she was 3rd in Andra Chansen when looking at raw votes but 1st with the age group system beating Theoz.

Gunilla Persson is the main talking point of this week’s heat. There’s even a Gunilla impersonator as one of the interval acts! In rehearsals Gunilla seemed awkward and trying too hard but has shined in front of an audience. This is exactly the type of act that I could see Swedes “troll vote” for in heat 3. Gunilla’s participation has actually generated some hype, which has been lacking in Mello this year. A clip of her rehearsal has over 500,000 views on TikTok. I also think she has cross-generational support. She has strong support across different metrics such as TikTok, Facebook, Aftonbladet poll and dress rehearsal poll. She might be able to shake up Mello this year!

The rest of the field seem to be competing for 4th place. Although Clara finished last in the audience poll I expect her to benefit from the age group system. Her entry this year is pretty similar to her last attempt which scored highly with the older groups. Although it would be highly unusual for 4 women to be the qualifiers, so there’s room for one of the boys to sneak through.

Recommended bets:

Back Gunilla to DTF @1.77 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Gunilla to win Heat @3.0 (Bet365)

Back Cazzi Opeia to beat Jacqline @1.85 (Unibet)

Lay Jacqline to DTF @1.88 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Clara to AC @1.65 (Unibet)

Dansk Melodi Grand Prix:

DMGP is a national selection which I have a 100% prediction accuracy rate with. Let’s see if I can keep it up this year.

Saba is the current odds on favourite which I have tipped already @3.5 to win. Her number “Sand” is a powerful mid tempo song which sounds a bit like Destiny’s “All of my Love” (but not as good of course). I’ve been worried about whether Saba could pull this off live, but videos suggest she is an exceptional singer. I imagine that theme of the song will allow for there to be an interesting staging concept. Saba’s record label also have a fantastic record at DMGP, winning in 2019 and 2020, so I don’t have many worries about the staging. Running order is also not a major concern for me with it just being an 8 song field and a superfinal. This type of song ticks a lot of boxes for jurors and luckily for Saba a jury will have 50% of the say in the superfinal. I’m not sure of how they’ll exactly be voting but in the past, DMGP juries have had disproportionate say with their method of voting. I believe this one will be a hard entry to beat!

Aura is the 2nd favourite in the odds but I am really sceptical about this one. Aura’s staging plans seem too over the top and kitschy. I’ve seen rehearsal clips where she sounds poor too. Whilst this might be the favoured one by DR, acts that have been pimped by them in the past have flopped. Performers such as Sada Vidoo (2017) and Jasmin Rose (2020) are numbers which underperformed after their staging was too kitschy. Aura is 1.3 to make the Top 3 and I would be laying that if I could.

In terms of the rest of the field I have my eye on Basim, who is making his return after 9 years. Basim is a likeable performer and his song “Johnny” should connect with the audience. However, I think the jury should stop it from winning in the superfinal due to its dated nature. Janus is in the penultimate slot with a ballad. Again, he seems like another likeable performer and could make the top 3 if he can pull it off live. Janus is also from the Faroe Islands, residents of which can vote, so there might be some bloc voting to help him. Acts from Greenland and Faroe Islands have done well in televoting at DMGP before.

Recommend bets:

Back Saba to win DMGP @1.8 (Bet365)

Back Basim Top 3 @1.8 (Bet365)

Back Janus Top 3 @7.5 (Unibet)

Already tipped: Saba to win DMGP @3.5

Eurovizja.LT:

Don’t think there’s any value here but predicting a Silvester Belt win. “Luktelk” has become a huge hit in the country and gained momentum since his performance in the first heat. Casual viewers tuning into the final should help boost his televote score. Superfinals also usually disadvantages acts with big fanbases as they have less time to mobilise their fans, hurting The Roop. I’m also expecting comments from the jurors to de-ramp The Roop. We already saw 1 juror say The Roop need to get out of the Eurovision typecast/box.