It’s shaping up to be one of the most open Eurovision finals in recent memory. Let’s take a look at the runners and riders ahead of tonight’s grand finale.
Contenders
Estonia: Drawn in slot 3, it’s clear the EBU doesn’t want Tommy Cash anywhere near the crystal trophy. That said, I don’t think the early running order will hurt the televote as much as some fear. Like Israel and Ukraine last year, Estonia’s base will show up regardless. The stats are impressive, and anecdotally, this entry seems to be dominating Eurovision discussion outside the West—more so than Sweden. I still see it as a genuine threat for the televote win, and the odds are good value.
Austria: First up among the serious contenders, and after watching the jury final in full last night, it’s evident the running order isn’t doing JJ any favours. Momentum has dipped slightly in recent days, but this still has a viable path to victory.
In recent years, juries have gravitated towards entries that feel extraordinary—and JJ certainly ticks that box. I don’t see a jury landslide coming from anyone, but Austria is still my pick for jury winner. The televote potential is real too: strong stats across Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube, and broad geographical appeal suggest a likely top-six televote finish. Not out of the race.
The Netherlands: Claude delivered a strong performance at the jury show and should land comfortably in the jury top five. But this is another entry hampered by its position in the running order—followed immediately by Erika Vikman and two more French-language songs in the second half. I’m increasingly doubtful about its televote appeal. C’est la vie hasn’t lit up the charts, and I’m expecting a low three-digit televote score here.
Finland: I’ve been cautious on this all season, but Erika Vikman turned in a show-stopping jury final performance. She’s the biggest star of the year, and the crowd chanting her name post-performance sent the right signal to jurors. While the fanbase is fully behind her, the televote still feels a bit too bubble-bound. I’m going against the grain and predicting higher jury than televote support.
Sweden: The deserved favourite—but not an unbeatable one. The televote is solid, but I think its jury prospects are being underrated. Not every juror is after art-house gloom; those who want a bit of Eurovision fun might well place this clever, credible entry top. Its frontrunner status alone gives it extra weight with both audiences.
Watching last night’s show, it was obvious the running order had been tailored to set Sweden up for success. Portugal flattens the mood, Denmark revives it, and the stage is perfectly prepped. The five-minute break that follows offers another advantage: viewers and jurors alike had time to discuss the odds-on favourite, with the phone lines already open.
France: Louane’s superb jury show has led to a major odds shift in the last 24 hours. It’s a technically accomplished, emotionally impactful performance that jurors should reward. But I remain sceptical about its televote chances. Streaming and social data media suggest this isn’t one that the public have got on board with. Yes, the Big Five often underperform on that side—but Germany is currently outpacing France quite easily. The current odds feel about right.
Others
Israel has struggled to gain traction unlike last year. However, they have their key supporters which will be enough for a top 10 finish. I have been laying this for top 5 since Semi Final 2.
Albania is still a bit of an unpredictable one for me. The diaspora are definitely on board and this will get some neutral televote in the East and South. The big question is their jury score. On paper, this does tick some of their boxes.
Switzerland is a classy performance that should be up their with the juries but a low televote is likely. A similar result to Portugal 2024 can be expected.
Italy is by far the most unpredictable entry of the year for me. There’s potential for it to score decently well on both sides of the scoreboard or get forgotten about after being sandwiched between 2 high intensity performances.
Greece and Poland have both activated their diaspora. A top 10 televote for both is expected but it’s the former with some jury backing that should be putting in a challenge for top 10 with the latter taking a place from 11-15.
Germany has gained momentum on the streaming charts overnight, suggesting televote traction. Tyna gave a respectable jury performance, but the recap clip unfortunately highlights one of her weaker moments—which could cost the duo some jury points.
Outright:
This is one of the most open contests in recent years, with a variety of dynamics at play. My current prediction is a Sweden win—similar to Duncan Laurence’s 2019 victory: second with the televote, third with the jury. As I’ve said, I think Sweden is being underestimated on the jury front.
There’s also a sense that we’re due a winner like this. Sweden’s entry hits that sweet spot between credibility and accessibility—it’s slick, entertaining, and undeniably Eurovision. That combination is one that is hard to beat.
Austria is very much still in the mix, with strong signs of support across the board. France faces a tougher road in my view, especially when you look at the available data.
Prediction:
- Sweden
- Austria
- France
- Estonia
- Finland
6-10: Albania, Israel, The Netherlands, Greece and Switzerland
Last: United Kingdom
Recommended bets:
Back Estonia Televote Winner @8 (Unibet)
Back Poland Top 15 @2 (Betfair Exchange)
Back Sweden Top 4 Finish, Finland Top 5 @2.0 (Boyle Sports)
Back Austria, Winner Without Sweden @2.4 (Betfair Exchange)
Lay Luxembourg Top 15 @1.75 (Betfair Exchange)
Already tipped:
Estonia Top 5 @4.5
UK 12 Televote points to Poland @13.0
Greece Top 10 @7.0
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