An unpredictable Semi Final awaits ahead. Let’s take a look at the runners and riders

Australia kicks off the show with a fun performance. This is well staged but Gojo lacks a bit of stage presence for me. Safely through, regardless.

Montenegro is nice but will be long forgotten by the end of the show.

Ireland is bringing some pleasant bubble gum pop. I can see why some have this through after the audience poll result. For me, this is too static of a performance via the TV feed. Ireland does have some friends here, could be a close one.

Latvia is agreat visual show. Tuesday’s results show that authenticity seems to be winning out, so I understand the shortening on this. I’m expecting top points from Lithuania, Ireland and ROTW which could be enough.

Armenia is very well performed and was one of the stand outs for me from last night. They have a lot of friends in this semi and the nicely added Armenian part is a welcome call to action. The audience poll also shows that there is a neutral vote for this too.

Austria disappointed me. In studio, it is one of my personal favourite but the overly complicated stage show fails to convey the feeling of the song effectively. I am growing cold on the outright chances for this one.

Greece really benefits from coming after a messy UK. Fokas has done a decent job with the staging here. The outfit change at the end is a great moment. The rehearsal views for this entry shows the diaspora is engaged.

Lithuania will be safely through thanks to diaspora and I’m sure there are plenty of fans for this genre.

Malta have really missed the mark with this one. Instead of going down the playful but self-deprecating route the music video did, the liver performance is messy, kitschy and over the top. Considering Malta’s disadvantage in the televote and the up-tempo competition in this semi, Malta is in danger.

Georgia isn’t really worth reviewing.

Denmark’s Sissal is giving it her all, but the staging is simply not enough. The fan vote means this isn’t totally chanceless though.

Czechia is another that suffers from Empty Stage Syndrome. Overall, it’s a nice performance but will this really be anyone’s favourite? The audience poll is a real cause for concern.

Luxembourg was the performance of the night for me. Laura’s charisma really shines through and the visual storytelling is fantastic. It’s one that could score decently with both sides of the scoreboard on Saturday night.

Israel feelscold despite the golden curtain moment at the end. Yuval has struggled with the vocal at different points. Like many of the other contenders, they have failed with the storytelling.

Serbia really benefits by coming after a vocally vulnerable Germany. This is much better in full than the short rehearsal clip. It’s diaspora delighting and should get some neutral vote.

Finland’s Erika delivers a showstopping performance to close out the Semi Finals. This is a great pimp slot act. I’ve been pessimistic on Erika’s chances in the past but it did feel like a Semi winning performance.

Qualification market:

This is one of the most unpredictable semi-finals in recent memory, with only Georgia and Montenegro appearing truly out of contention. Greece’s rehearsal buzz on social media has been very positive, which nudges me toward including it as a likely qualifier. Armenia also looks strong mathematically, and audience polls suggest it can pick up neutral support—so it’s also on my likely list.

Czechia feels particularly vulnerable. With little regional or diaspora support and a performance that may struggle to connect, I fear Adonxs may be heading for an early exit.

Serbia has a strong record, with their lowest ever semi-final finish being an 11^th place. Princ delivers a diaspora pleasing performance and should get some of the mum vote.

If Semi-Final 1 taught us anything, it’s that authenticity resonates. Latvia’s entry will have its fans so I’m leaning towards that squeezing into the 10th spot.

Malta has a fanbase, but the performance is too over-the-top. Coupled with its usual televote challenges, it might not be enough to carry them through.

Outright market:

Both France and Austria left me underwhelmed last night. As mentioned earlier, Austria’s performance risks being too complex for a broad audience and may struggle to create an emotional connection. France, while pleasant, loses momentum quickly—the concept feels repetitive after the first minute and lacks a compelling narrative. As a result, the advantage clearly shifts to Sweden and the Netherlands.

10 qualifiers: Australia, Latvia, Armenia, Austria, Greece, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Serbia, Israel and Finland

1. Finland
2. Israel
3. Austria
4. Luxembourg

Recommended bets:

Back Greece, Lithuania and Armenia to Q @3.0 (William Hill)

Already tipped:

Back Armenia to Q @2.4

Back Ireland to NQ @1.8