Eurovision week kicks off tonight with the first Semi Final in Basel. Let’s take a look at the runners and riders:

Iceland opens the show with infectious energy and a feel-good atmosphere. It’s a fun number but risks being overshadowed by stronger televote magnets that follow. There’s likely voter overlap with Sweden and Estonia, which could dilute support even further.

Poland’s Justyna brings star power but stumbled through a messy rehearsal last night. Despite this, her name recognition and diaspora backing should be more than enough to carry her over the line.

Slovenia offers a welcome moment of calm. The performance is intimate, and well-directed, especially in its closing moments. If last year’s support for Dons is anything to go by, this could resonate with the older viewers who are looking for something a bit more conventional.

Estonia has levelled up since Eesti Laul. This is super fun. I am not the target audience for this one, but even I found myself laughing along. Easily something that could catch fire in the run up to to the final.

Ukraine truly risks pushing its luck on diaspora support. The performance feels flat and struggles in a tough slot between Estonia and Sweden. Any other country with this showing would be looking at a certain non-qualification.

Sweden has refined its Melfest staging, though underwhelming audience poll results have cast some doubt on its top-three credentials. Its head-to-head with Estonia will be one of the night’s most interesting dynamics.

Portugal is visually pleasant but loses impact after the first minute. The concept hasn’t translated clearly through the staging — a long shot to qualify.

Norway has taken a step down from its national final. Kyle’s vocals were shaky in rehearsal, and the confidence from MGP seems to have fizzled. If there’s a surprise non-qualifier tonight, this is the one.

Belgium impresses with sleek and modern staging. I’m still sceptical about the televote appeal of of this but expect this to be well-received by juries come the final.

Azerbaijan brings polished visuals, but the vocals are grating and there’s little for the average viewer to connect with. Overall, it feels very one note, lacking a call to action.

San Marino has fallen victim to Empty Stage Syndrome. It clearly had a great reception in the audience but on TV it falls flat. There are a number of countries in this semi which are “culturally obsessed” with Italy and the song is good enough to qualify on its own.

Albania could have staged this a bit better but it is still overall an impressive performance. This has huge support from the diaspora, which may be enough for a top 3 placing in this Semi. It still feels a bit uncertain regarding whether or not this will translate beyond fans and diaspora. We will have to see.

Netherlands delivers an all round solid performance and remains in contention for a jury win.

Croatia have staged this as well as they possibly could. The problem lies with the song itself which comes across like an assault on the senses.

Cyprus is technically impressive but is essentially complicated for the sake of being complicated. If the delegation weren’t up to their usual tricks, this could be one that surprisingly misses out.

Qualification battle:

In my view, three countries appear to be chasing the final two spots: Norway, San Marino, and Slovenia. Slovenia offers a calmer, emotional package in a somewhat hectic line-up that should appeal to older voters — which could be decisive. Norway exemplifies the type of entry that is decent in a semi-final show but falls apart on the big night. Kyle just needs a slight vocal improvement from last night and some more confidence to get through.

Semi winner and top 3:

Sweden remains the most likely winner of tonight. Whilst I am very positive about Estonia it’s an act that will be more impactful in the final after building momentum over the course of the week – it is more likely to garner a “WTF” first impression reaction. For 3rd, it’s tight between Albania and Netherlands, with Albania’s diaspora potentially tipping the balance in my opinion.

Predicted qualifiers: Poland, Slovenia, Estonia, Ukraine, Sweden, Norway, Belgium, Albania, Netherlands and Cyprus

1. Sweden
2. Estonia
3. Albania

Recommended bets:

Back Slovenia to Qualify @2.0 (Sky Bet)

Back Estonia Top 5 @4.5 (Betfair Exchange)