Another year of Mello madness comes to a close tonight in Solna. Let’s take a look at the runners and riders.

Despite placing 2nd in their heat, KAJ are the odds on favourite for televote victory this evening. Their post heat momentum showcases the story of this year’s Mello. #1 on Spotify breaking Tattoo’s record, #1 on Youtube and an audience poll victory at last night’s jury show. The media narrative of David vs Goliath, KAJ vs Mans helps them too, with many comments from Swedes suggesting it’s time they switch things up a little bit.

While it’s easy to see why they’re the favourites in the televote, the age-group voting system could still pose a challenge. Their lead over Måns, who I expect will pick up 10s with the younger groups and 12s with the older, may not be enough to secure the overall victory.

It’s clear that jurors will decide the Melfest champion tonight and without a doubt they will prefer Måns slick, Eurovision ready performance. However, we have already seen this in this year’s selections and through trends at Eurovision, that jurors aren’t afraid to go for more unconventional packages. KAJ’s entry is novelty done perfectly right, straddling both credible and fun just exactly right. If Medina could place 3rd with the jurors last year, this almost certainly has every chance. But, my worry is that it could take just one jury to cost them their victory. Whilst i’m sure that Norway, Ireland and Lithuania will reward KAJ with high points, i’m not so sure the same could be said about Greece. Ultimately, I could see either Måns or KAJ but it’s for this reason why i’m anticipating a narrow Måns victory.

Greczula stands out in this lineup for his raw authenticity and undeniable rock star presence. He’s likely to score well across both juries and age groups, making a top-three finish a strong possibility. Several jury nations—particularly France, Switzerland, and Italy—seem well-positioned to reward his style. On paper, Klara’s entry has the ingredients for both jury and televote appeal. However, a less-than-perfect jury performance, a disappointing audience poll result, and failing to win her heat suggest that a bottom-half finish is well within the realm of possibility.

Both John Lundvik and Erik Segerstedt seem to be fishing in the same pond for jury and older age group points. It’s the latter, who I think comes out stronger from this matchup with his more impressive streaming statistics. A mid table finish for both is what I am expecting.

We already know that Scarlet haven’t fared well with the televote age group system in both of their Mello appearances but jurors should sprinkle this some points due to their creativity and strong vocal display. Meira is one of the breakout stars from this year’s Mello and i’m sure we’ll see her again soon. Some consistent middling televote scores with high jury points from the 2 balkan countries could see her hit the top 6. Saga, the unexpected heat winner, delivers a solid performance that should earn her some jury support and moderate televote scores, likely placing her somewhere between 7th and 10th.

The last place market is one of the most interesting betting opportunities this season. Since the age group system’s inception, last place has gone to either a heat runner up or Andra Chansen qualifier. Dolly Style have had some great streaming numbers, however their support is significantly concentrated in the 2 youngest age groups meaning they are vying for last place. Maja appears to be getting quite a lot of love with the older age groups on social media and her entry does feel “different” enough to get a random high jury placing with a country and avoid last place. Annika is the odds on favourite for last place, but much like Faith Kakembo in 2022, I think this is mispriced. While Annika has the weakest streaming numbers, her standout vocals are by far the strongest in the lineup. Her performance checks all the right boxes for jurors, and a top-five jury placement, just like she received last year, wouldn’t be surprising in the slightest.

Recommended bets:

KAJ Over 141.5 points @2.30 (Unibet)

Annika Wickihalder Over 37.5 points @2.10 (Unibet)

Maja Ivarsson Under 55.5 points @2.10 (Unibet)

Prediction:

1. Mans Zelmerlow
2. Kaj
3. Greczula