After a tumultuous 48 hours let’s dive into some analysis for tonights show:

The Contenders

The outright market was thrown into chaos after RAI “accidentally” leaked that Israel attained 40% of the Italian vote during semi final 2 – a colossal share of the vote, 10% higher than what Kalush Orchestra managed to achieve in 2022. What’s noticeable to me is that the semi final was broadcast on RAI 2, suggesting that the audience and voters skewed younger, and yet the margin was so huge. Israel’s outright price has dramatically shortened into 4s. As someone who was backing Israel at around odds of 55 during the expulsion drama earlier in the season, an Israel win would likely be the best financial outcome for me. I can easily see the Italian televote result being replicated across the continent, for example newspaper polls in Sweden and Norway show large support for the Israeli entry. Mainstream media in the UK has been dominated with discourse around the Israeli entry and social media conversations suggest there is widespread sympathy for Eden Golan, which i’m sure will only be amplified if booing can be heard through the TV feed. I think Israel’s televote will be lower than Ukraine 2022, as support for Israel does vary country by country. Instead I think they’re heading for a televote in the area of 370-395 points, which means it all comes down to the jury. Eurojury tells us that there will be a high variation in the points Israel receives, some juries completely blanking them whilst others showering them with high points. The latest leak from RAI is just going to intensify this. In the end it seems like this years contest will come down to what influence delegations will have on their jurors.

The producers have made it clear that Croatia is the chosen one, plumping it in slot #24 whilst Israel is buried in slot #6 (number 5 now technically). Baby Lasagna delivered a fantastic performance at yesterdays jury show. He exuded star quality and charisma, coming across more like Maneskin than Kaarija. I’m expecting Croatia to now be comfortably in the jury top 4. Croatia has decent post-semi final stats too, doing well on Spotify, Apple Music and social media. However, my main concern is whether Croatia can get enough televote to keep the margin close between themselves and Israel. I’m not fully confident considering that I believe Ukraine will beat them in a decent number of countries. I think it’s highly unlikely that the general public will know to tactically vote for Croatia, instead anti-Israel votes are more likely to go to an act that has been visibly pro-Palestine (Ireland). Baby Lasagna was also unable to win the audience poll in a landslide, unlike Kaarija last year. However, jurors are much more likely to be in the know. Like in Sanremo 2024, when they knew they had to unify behind Angelina Mango to stop the televote titan, it’s the same here with Baby Lasagna. The disqualification of Netherlands has also thrown a curveball. I believe those that those who were probably going to vote for the Netherlands will be switching their vote to Croatia, who now hoovers up the fun vote. This controversial decision could make the difference.

France has had very strong stats for a big 5 country. Slimane’s performance on Thursday was objectively excellent and felt like a real moment with his world class delivery. France has been given a perfect running order slot and this is the type of performance that I think casuals, particularly older voters, can really fall in love with. The main worry with France is that Slimane’s vocal in yesterdays jury final was far from his best. I’m not totally convinced that it will make a major difference in his placing, but it could cost him a few points. A poor vocal in the final performance this evening on the other hand, could have a sizeable impact on his televote score. At the moment, it feels like too much of a risky bet with his current vocal capacity being the big unknown.

Switzerland’s Nemo has also been given a fantastic running order slot. After Slimane’s less than perfect jury show performance, Switzerland has been cemented as the favourite for jury winner. Whilst Switzerland’s live stats during semi final 2 were underwhelming the song has been doing decently on streaming since. The audience poll also suggests that this definitely has some love from the public. If it can get a 300+ jury haul, it still has a path to victory.

Ukraine are the sacrificial lamb of this years contest being placed into the death slot #2. “Teresa and Maria” has had some excellent post-show stats on social media and streaming services, exceeding my expectations. I think it’s clear from their burial in the running order that Ukraine had a strong result in semi final 1. Ukraine is arguably the least running order dependent of all the contenders. The diaspora was always going to turn out whatever number slot they were given, in fact looking at social media comments – it seems they are even more motivated because of how the girls have been treated by the producers. Whilst they’re no longer in contention for winning, a top 3 placing isn’t impossible.

Top 10

After initially being sceptical of Ireland early in the season, it’s one of my biggest top 10 bets having backed this @4s before rehearsals. Bambie has gone viral across the continent on both social media and mainstream media. Of course, a lot of this will be people watching as they’re curious about what is going on but there is a lot of positive sentiment. It’s noticeable that on streaming, Ireland has performed better in the East. I think Bambie will be able to garner a lot of support from the younger and more rebellious generations in Eastern Europe. From a jury perspective, many will despise this but others should appreciate its originality and cinematic quality. I am quite confident this will make the top 6 of the overall televote. Greece is an entry that i’ve been 50/50 about making top 10 over this week. However, Marina performed at her best last night. The Youtube views clearly show that the Greek diaspora is motivated to turn out and i’m expecting 100+ televote points. It has a great running order too. The disqualification of the Netherlands should marginally help this too as I’m expecting Greece to get a lot of middling televote points. Italy should be comfortably heading for the top 10 of course, with lots of jury support and a decent televote. Sweden is also a country which I’ve been backing for top 10 earlier in the season, which i’m not totally sure about anymore. I have it marginally in, as juries should respect the world class quality of the performance. Voting opening from the start helps them too considering the demographics of their support. I had hopes that Armenia could become Moldova 2022 2.0 but the reception it’s received so far suggests otherwise. I still expect a strong Eastern televote putting it into the top 15. Georgia is one which I had counted out of being in contention for top 10 but have recently changed my mind. Nutsa is a world class star and the juries should reward this. The performance is anthemic and uplifting, despite its dated nature. Nutsa has a huge international team behind her too which can be handy in getting some jury and tele love, especially from the balkan area.

Other markets

I was pleased to see Latvia qualify after backing them @7.6 in play. Dons has a brilliant running order for jurors, following Estonia, Spain and Ireland. I think jurors will love the classiness of the whole package, in the same way they took a liking to “Bridges” last year. The UK has been going through the motions over this week, but Olly delivered a great performance last night. There’s a chance that this could do quite well with the jury, keeping it in contention for Top 15. Norway has had a poor reception since its semi final performance and I can’t see many juries liking the piercing vocal, it’s one i’m opposing in the top 15 market. Dream Team entries have usually done ok in the final so i’ve had a small bet on Cyprus cracking the top 15. In terms of last place, i’m siding with the market with this one on Spain. Yes it’s a crowd please, but in a year of heavy televote hitters I don’t see this getting into many televote top 10s.

Thanks for following this season and good luck everyone!

Prediction:

1. Croatia
2. Israel
3. Switzerland
4. France
5. Ukraine

6-10: Italy, Ireland, Greece, Sweden and Georgia

Recommended bets:

Back Latvia Top 15 @2.36

Back Ukraine, Israel and Switzerland Top 5 Finishes & Ireland Top 10 Finish @ 3.0 (SkyBet)

Back Spain Last Place @3.7 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Cyprus to beat Slovenia @1.57 (SkyBet)

Back Cyprus Top 15 @3.6 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Georgia to beat Norway @1.61 (StarSports Bet)

Back Israel to beat Switzerland @1.83 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Lay Norway Top 15 @2.06 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Georgia Top 10 @2.8 (Betfair Exchange)

Croatia, Switzerland & Israel Top 5 Finish, Ireland, France & Ukraine Top 10 Finish @2.25 (SkyBet)

And finally considering it’s the televote favourite and I have already tipped Croatia to win, I believe Israel @4 (each way) with William Hill is a necessary cover.

Already tipped:

Latvia Top Baltic @8.0

Sweden Top Nordic @2.04

UK tele 12 to Israel @2.5

Israel Top 10 @2.2

Croatia to win Eurovision 2024 @2.24

Back France to beat Italy @2.25

Back France Top Big 5 @2.1

Ukraine each way to win @13

France each way to win @18

Armenia Top 10 @2.78

Back Sweden Top Nordic @1.8

Israel Top 5 @3.75