As the pre-party season concludes and the final votes from OGAE and Eurojury are tallied, we stand on the brink of what promises to be one of the most unpredictable Eurovision contests ever. Now, let’s delve into an analysis of the leading contenders!

Switzerland: Nemo’s “The Code” will enter the rehearsal period as the market leader, last matched at 3.3 on Betfair exchange. “The Code” is one of the most modern, unique and dynamic entries this year with a distinctive artist. This entry has much to offer the jurors: they should appreciate its modern vibe, creativity and out of the box nature. However, 3.3 is definitely a price I would not recommend backing. Of the contenders, Switzerland feels the most stage dependent and i’m not confident that they will be able to transfer the feeling and atmosphere from the music video onto the Eurovision stage. Those on the pro-Swiss train had been hoping for a runaway Eurojury win, which did not materialise. At Eurovision, I could see one of France or Italy taking the jury win, considering they appear to be more “agreeable” for jurors. On the televote side it feels highly unlikely this will be in the televote top 3, considering the strength of Netherlands, Croatia, Ukraine and Israel on this side of the vote. Comparisons have been made between Nemo and Conchita but i think this appears to be slightly misguided. Conchita’s performance delivered a clear, powerful message that resonated across demographics and borders. In contrast, there’s a risk that Nemo’s story might not engage or be as easily understood by the audience. Nonetheless, there remains a decent sized path to victory for Switzerland, akin to Conchita’s triumph, which would require an impeccably executed stage presentation that turns their performance into the highlight of the contest—the moment that everyone will be talking about on the Saturday.

Croatia: Baby Lasagna was the market leader for a significant part of the season but will be entering Malmo 2nd in the odds. When the music video for this entry was released I was very optimistic about Croatia’s prospects. ‘Rim Tim Tagi Dim’ is super catchy, almost like a combination of Blind Channel and Kaarija. The message of the song is one which can resonate with millions of Europeans across the continent, not just limited to the balkan region. It manages to be universally accessible whilst retaining a distinct balkan identity. Most importantly, it’s delivered by an extremely likeable character with an underdog story. All these factors mean that it has the potential to rack up a huge televote score at the contest. Eurojury also suggests there can be jury support for this number. The main drawback with this entry so far has been the live execution. The live performance was far from perfect at Dora but it’s hard to make a judgement from that setting. My main concern has been the Kaarija imitations in the staging so far, particularly the lighting and outfit. If I was advising the Croatian team I would suggest focusing more on the “cats” element of the staging, which has meme potential. There is also the possibility that this gets a bit lost in the hype that Netherlands may have during the final week, although 2017 and 2021 show us 2 televote titans can co-exist together. Ultimately, it will come down to the staging changes which are crucial to ensuring Croatia doesn’t come across as a Kaarija tribute act that even Kaarija isn’t supporting.

Netherlands: After drifting out to 600.00 post-song release the current leader in streaming stats, Joost Klein is now in trading in single figures. Joost has an excellent marketing strategy which has helped the song go viral in the Benelux region. While the bulk of the streaming support is originating from this region, if we set aside the figures from the Netherlands and Belgium, the current raw streaming numbers are approximately three times higher than what Kaarija achieved at the same point last year. I currently have this as my televote winner as I anticipate the pro- European message can unite the continent and impact the collective consciousness of viewers. On the jury side, I’m more optimistic than many despite the meh Euorojury score. “Europapa” has all the makings of a huge hit—it’s fresh, modern, and playful. Additionally, the staging team is focusing on enhancing the emotional appeal of the final part of the song to boost its jury appeal. The biggest question for this is how well it can do in the East and South, especially when we have a strong Croatia and Ukraine this year. Some have also questioned how many televote points this can get as we are in a year full of public vote hitters. Whilst this is true, I think in the age of social media and hype – low televote scoring winners seem to be a thing of the past, especially looking at the last 3 contests. The Dutch team seems to be well-prepared; they’ve been working on the staging for 9 months and are keenly aware of the need to impress the jurors. A major advantage for the Netherlands is momentum. With Joost closing the semi-finals, he’s ideally placed to build momentum and potentially have the honour of being “#1 in the bookmakers” on the Friday… a handy signal to send to jurors.

Italy: Angelina Mango’s number has somehow managed to become the most polarising entry amongst the betting community this year. Angelina has a strong Lena aura about her. A very young charismatic likeable performer with an infectious song. Italy has arguably one of the strongest overall packages this year when looking at song, singer and staging. There’s lots for jurors to like here too: a modern song with huge hit potential and a young performer who is able to command the stage at an almost unprecedented level. I guess the biggest concern here is the televote. There’s arguably a lot more entries (NL, CRO, UKR, ISR, GRE) which have a stronger call to action – a reason for people to pick up the phone. Perhaps this entry is just too ordinary? I think this is a decent argument but i’m not totally convinced. With summer approaching around the corner, this song which is crying out to be a European summer smash hit, could fit perfectly with what viewers are wanting. In a year full of crazy songs, this could stand out to televoters simply because of how high quality and classy it is. Ideally Mango would need a running order position in the range of 21-24 to ensure she does stand out. Apart from Mango’s star quality, Italy’s other weapon is Marta Donà – the music manager who propelled Maneskin from X Factor runners up to Grammy nominated superstars. Marta might be the only person in Italy who knows how Eurovision works and has assembled a great team to create a new performance for Eurovision. It would be foolish to rule Italy out considering this team and the great stats so far, hence I’ve kept this green in my outright book.

Ukraine: Matched as low as 3.15 before fading away during March and hitting a high of 21.5, Ukraine has been the entry i’ve probably been the loudest about. I think people have forgotten the reception that Teresa & Maria received upon its release. The song shot straight to #1 in Ukraine and charted in neighbouring countries. Most importantly, the duo received 720,000 votes at Vidbir – simply just a colossal and historic number. Of course there’s also the vast Ukranian diaspora to consider which gives them a huge head start. Given that Tvorchi, an act I believe would not have qualified with any other country, managed to secure 4th place in the televote with 189 points, it’s hard for me to imagine Alyona & Jerry, with a song that resonates with the diaspora, receiving less than about 240 televote points. Let’s not forget that Ukraine are the masters of Eurovision staging too. In interviews, the duo has suggested that their new Eurovision staging will embrace a superwoman/feminist theme—a motif that Eurovision jurors have historically favoured (consider Netta, Tamara, Manizha, and Vesna). They also seem to stand out in this years crazy and party lineup because of the emotional impact they bring. I can totally see the possibility of an outsider Jamala style victory. Even if you don’t see Teresa and Maria as winning material, the math makes it clear to me that this is at least each way value.

Best of the rest: The big unknown in this years contest is Israel’s televote score. There is no negative voting at Eurovision of course so even if Israel scored only around 5% in each countries’ televote – this would still lead to a hefty televote score. We’re already seeing the Israeli team push a “victim” narrative in the media, briefing how it’s not safe for them to leave the hotel and talking about abuse they have faced. Large protests planned in Malmo can feed into this “bullying and hateful” narrative even more, motivating Israeli supporters to vote and creating a sympathy narrative. I imagine some jurors will intentionally blank this, but others could overmark. “Hurricane” is quite a dated X Factor style ballad but it has done decently in Eurojury showing that jurors aren’t afraid to attach their name to this and clearly some older jurors in particular may like this style of vocal acrobatics. For this reason, I have backed Israel heavily in most possible markets. France should be high up with the jury vote, possibly winning, simply because of Slimane’s star quality. I’m not totally convinced about the televote yet but there’s an audience for this. Greece is another i’m optimistic about simply because Zari is one of the most modern and bold entries we’ve ever seen at Eurovision. I disagree with many bettors who think the jury won’t take kindly to this. The powerful Greek diaspora has been missing in action for over a decade but we are expecting their return this year. However, there is a bit of a ceiling for this as Northern Europe will blank this. Looking at other markets, Armenia is one which I think is value for top 10. It has a vibe reminiscent of Moldova’s 2022 entry, possessing a universal appeal to both Eastern and Western audiences, primarily due to its fun and joyous nature.. It has also overperformed in Eurojury. Whilst I have been critical of the UK, it’s likely they will bring excellent staging. I can see it finishing in the lower end of the jury top 10 with some low-mid televote from the Nordic area helping it finish in the top 15 overall. As usual, we can expect UK casuals to come and shorten the price closer to the contest.

Recommended bets:

Back Ukraine to win Eurovision 2024 each way @13.0 (Unibet)

Back Israel Top 5 @3.75 (Boyle Sports)

Back Netherlands to win Eurovision 2024 @7.0 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Armenia Top 10 @2.78-2.75 (Betfair Exchange and Unibet)

Back United Kingdom Top 15 @2.5 (Betfair Exchange)