Another year of Mello madness comes to a close tonight in Friends arena. Let’s take a look at some of the markets on offer tonight!

In terms of the outright, it’s hard to look past a sweeping Marcus and Martinus victory tonight. It seems like their number is the only one that can score very highly with both juries and televote. I started backing M&M for the Mello victory @2.82 during Danny’s underwhelming rehearsals last week so i’m pleased with how events have unfolded. Their overall point score may have some relevance in terms of moving the outright Eurovision market. At Eurovision I anticipate they could get a top 3 jury score with a decent televote.

Looking at the rest of the scoreboard it feels like the outcome come be more random than ever especially compared to last year where the top 3 seemed certain. Jacqline has one of the slickest performances and a song that has a strong international sound which juries should love and i’m expecting her to be in the jury top 2 tonight. However, I still remain a bit sceptical about her televote, especially with the age group system as I guess much of her support is concentrated in the 16-29 group. “Effortless” has underperformed my expectations on streaming platforms and had a dismal showing with yesterdays audience poll placing 8th. I see a lot of similarities with Bluffin from 2022 which was also a heat winner that had a strong international sound that jurors appreciated but faltered with the age group system in the final.

Many of my positions for this Melfest final are on Liamoo. “Dragon” is a safe, accessible mid-tempo pop song slotted into a great running order slot, #10. Liamoo has decent stats when looking at the audience poll and for most of the week was the highest non heat 5 act on Spotify, which was pretty surprising to me as “Dragon” is much better live than in studio. As @euroepiphanies said to me compared to the rest of the lineup, Liamoo’s number feels a lot more “warmer” (both physically and emotionally) than a lot of the colder and slicker performances. Apart from M&M, this is the entry which I think can make top 5 in both jury and televote leading to a high overall placing.

Danny Saucedo‘s streaming stats have been pretty terrible considering he is the biggest name in this lineup. However, on the televote side he should be over performing these stats as this entry is about his charisma/performance rather than the song. The international jury should be knocking this down a few placings considering the dated nature of the package. I had a lay of this making the top 3 at the start of the week and would be shocked if he did make it. Medina have been gaining momentum on streaming all week, increasing their margin over M&M. Interestingly, their pre-performance video clip features them talking about how long it’s been since Sweden sent an entry in Swedish to ESC. Medina did only go DTF by 3 points last week so they don’t fare as strong under the age group system. Their jury score remains a complete mystery to me. In 2022 they shocked many by placing 3rd with the jury. They do have strong USP considering it’s the only song in Swedish, so jurors may reward this. At the same time, the vocals in the first minute could be off-putting for jurors. Smash into Pieces have been quietly rising on streaming throughout the week. Moreover, other stats such as the audience survey and the Aftonbladet poll suggest SIP have a cross-generational appeal that should secure them a televote top 4 placing. They have a USP and rock sometimes overperforms in NF. Like Medina, their jury score is another wildcard although some of the countries on the jury (Australia, Germany, Serbia) look favourable. If they can replicate their 2023 jury showing I would expect them to place in the top 3. Maria Sur is an international fan favourite but has underwhelmed on Spotify. The running order also harms her, considering that there are better slick pop numbers later in the final. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her missing out on the top 6. Dotter has one of the most authentic numbers in this lineup. Hence, there’s a chance she could overperform on the jury side. Although she faces competition from Lisa Ajax and Annika. Dotter has actually done surprising well with domestic streaming but I can only see her getting middling points from all groups.

The last place market is always an exciting one, but 1 random high score from a single jury can often determine the winner of this market. I think this’ll be between Lisa Ajax and Cazzi Opeia. Both Jay Smith and Annika should be getting some jury love and points from the older age groups to comfortably avoid last place. I would lean towards Cazzi being the value pick here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her last with the jury and picking up only some points with the little tots. Lisa has one of the most authentic and emotional numbers, so is more likely to get one of these random high scores from a jury.

With the outright market offering little value here are some different bets i’ll be tipping:

Back Liamoo Top 2 @3.25 (Unibet)

Back Smash Into Pieces Top 5 @1.72 (Unibet)

Back Jacqline Under 114.5 Points @2.10 (Unibet)

Back Cazzi Under 34.5 points @2.4 (Unibet)

Back Annika to beat Cazzi @1.50 (Unibet)

Back Jacqline to beat Maria Sur @1.3 (Unibet)

A long shot: Back SIP Top 3 @5.0 (Unibet)

Already tipped:

Back Liamoo Top 3 @2.75 (Bet365)

Back Liamoo to beat Maria Sur @1.85 (Unibet)

Back Cazzi Last Place @3.5 (Unibet)