Melodifestivalen:

Previous Melodifestivalen Heat 3s have seen viewers “rebel” by opting for more unusual/out of the box numbers that are outsiders in the market. For example, Lina Hedlund’s schlager pop song went DTF in 2019 where it was matched @4s to do so. 2017’s heat 3 that took place in Vaxjo, where tonights show is, saw Owe Thörnqvist shock qualify for the final after being matched @30s in play. I wouldn’t be surprised to see similar surprises tonight.

Jacqline has a slick and modern pop song that wouldn’t sound out of place on Agnes’s last album. Jacqline is a very talented artist and her performance is one of the most professional we’ve seen all national final season. However, I feel that the whole number is just too slick and I am sceptical about how well this is going to connect with Swedes. Especially in Heat 3 when we’ve seen Swedes opt for acts which are more “authentic”. Jacqline’s odds to DTF have been as low as 1.08 at the start of the week and I have been laying from 1.36.

Cazzi Opeia was the audience poll winner yesterday. This is performed well and has some memorable staging which makes it stand out. There’s a few mentions in her postcard that she’s a Eurovision winner with “Tattoo”, which shouldn’t hurt her at all. In a weak heat with the pimp slot this should be enough for DTF. I have Cazzi down as the most likely DTF because I think she has the most consistent support with age groups. In 2022, she was 3rd in Andra Chansen when looking at raw votes but 1st with the age group system beating Theoz.

Gunilla Persson is the main talking point of this week’s heat. There’s even a Gunilla impersonator as one of the interval acts! In rehearsals Gunilla seemed awkward and trying too hard but has shined in front of an audience. This is exactly the type of act that I could see Swedes “troll vote” for in heat 3. Gunilla’s participation has actually generated some hype, which has been lacking in Mello this year. A clip of her rehearsal has over 500,000 views on TikTok. I also think she has cross-generational support. She has strong support across different metrics such as TikTok, Facebook, Aftonbladet poll and dress rehearsal poll. She might be able to shake up Mello this year!

The rest of the field seem to be competing for 4th place. Although Clara finished last in the audience poll I expect her to benefit from the age group system. Her entry this year is pretty similar to her last attempt which scored highly with the older groups. Although it would be highly unusual for 4 women to be the qualifiers, so there’s room for one of the boys to sneak through.

Recommended bets:

Back Gunilla to DTF @1.77 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Gunilla to win Heat @3.0 (Bet365)

Back Cazzi Opeia to beat Jacqline @1.85 (Unibet)

Lay Jacqline to DTF @1.88 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Clara to AC @1.65 (Unibet)

Dansk Melodi Grand Prix:

DMGP is a national selection which I have a 100% prediction accuracy rate with. Let’s see if I can keep it up this year.

Saba is the current odds on favourite which I have tipped already @3.5 to win. Her number “Sand” is a powerful mid tempo song which sounds a bit like Destiny’s “All of my Love” (but not as good of course). I’ve been worried about whether Saba could pull this off live, but videos suggest she is an exceptional singer. I imagine that theme of the song will allow for there to be an interesting staging concept. Saba’s record label also have a fantastic record at DMGP, winning in 2019 and 2020, so I don’t have many worries about the staging. Running order is also not a major concern for me with it just being an 8 song field and a superfinal. This type of song ticks a lot of boxes for jurors and luckily for Saba a jury will have 50% of the say in the superfinal. I’m not sure of how they’ll exactly be voting but in the past, DMGP juries have had disproportionate say with their method of voting. I believe this one will be a hard entry to beat!

Aura is the 2nd favourite in the odds but I am really sceptical about this one. Aura’s staging plans seem too over the top and kitschy. I’ve seen rehearsal clips where she sounds poor too. Whilst this might be the favoured one by DR, acts that have been pimped by them in the past have flopped. Performers such as Sada Vidoo (2017) and Jasmin Rose (2020) are numbers which underperformed after their staging was too kitschy. Aura is 1.3 to make the Top 3 and I would be laying that if I could.

In terms of the rest of the field I have my eye on Basim, who is making his return after 9 years. Basim is a likeable performer and his song “Johnny” should connect with the audience. However, I think the jury should stop it from winning in the superfinal due to its dated nature. Janus is in the penultimate slot with a ballad. Again, he seems like another likeable performer and could make the top 3 if he can pull it off live. Janus is also from the Faroe Islands, residents of which can vote, so there might be some bloc voting to help him. Acts from Greenland and Faroe Islands have done well in televoting at DMGP before.

Recommend bets:

Back Saba to win DMGP @1.8 (Bet365)

Back Basim Top 3 @1.8 (Bet365)

Back Janus Top 3 @7.5 (Unibet)

Already tipped: Saba to win DMGP @3.5

Eurovizja.LT:

Don’t think there’s any value here but predicting a Silvester Belt win. “Luktelk” has become a huge hit in the country and gained momentum since his performance in the first heat. Casual viewers tuning into the final should help boost his televote score. Superfinals also usually disadvantages acts with big fanbases as they have less time to mobilise their fans, hurting The Roop. I’m also expecting comments from the jurors to de-ramp The Roop. We already saw 1 juror say The Roop need to get out of the Eurovision typecast/box.