For the first time in years we enter the Sanremo final with a sense of uncertainty around the looming result. I have around 4 entries down as very likely to make the final 5, let’s take a look at the contenders:
Geolier: Neapolitan rapper Geolier caused a shock result and uproar in the Ariston last night by winning covers night. Rumours have been circulating on Twitter that Geolier had attained at least 51% of the televote in a 15 song field on Wednesday and the covers night result seems to have given these rumours credibility. Geolier’s colossal televote is being driven by regional voting in Naples. He is rapping in the Neapolitan language, which has generated a backlash amongst the right in Italy but also mobilised voters in the South who feel like he is a victim of anti-Southernism. We know Geolier’s support amongst the press jury is poor but there remains some question marks around the radio jury considering his song is getting airplay and the radio jury is weighted by regional population.
Angelina: Rising star Angelina has momentum behind her after winning Wednesday night and coming 2nd on covers night. Her song “La Noia” has also been rising on streaming platforms such as Spotify and Amazon Music. We know that she has strong press support and will almost certainly be the favourite of the press jury in the superfinal. Angelina’s surprise loss during covers night has generated sentiment that she was “robbed”. Her covers night performance has received over 30 million views, charted on Apple Music and she has gained almost 200,000 followers in the space of less than 12 hours. This “robbed” sentiment can be enough for juries to coalesce around her and stop Geolier. One glaring uncertainty with Angelina is we still don’t really know her televote strength with her actual entry as she competed on the Wednesday night where other favourites were absent.
Annalisa: The pre-live favourite Annalisa has the entry that has performed most consistently across streaming platforms and stats. “Sinceramente” sits at #1 on Amazon, #1 on the radio airplay charts, #1 on Itunes, #2 on Youtube, #3 on Spotify and Apple Music. Despite some fantastic live performances and over-performing yesterday relative to stats, it feels like Angelina’s momentum has thwarted Annalisa’s chances of a victory. With all things being equal, I think Annalisa would still be in contention. Instead, it seems like placing 2nd or 3rd is the best she can hope for.
Irama: A Lewis Capaldi like ballad that might have been a serious contender in any other year. Irama has a motivated fanbase that has proven it will pick up the phone for him, as he placed 2nd on Wednesday night beating acts like Annalisa, Loredana and Mahmood. Considering tonight is 100% televote this should be enough for him to make the top 5.
The 5th superfinal spot seems to be between Ghali, Mahmood and Loredana. Ghali will be ahead at the start of tonight when Amadeus reveals the combined ranking. Ghali has benefited from the Wednesday/Thursday split, where he placed 2nd on the Thursday night and a top 5 finish on covers night. Considering Geolier likely took a large % of points on Tuesday, Ghali should be well ahead of the Tuesday night participants. Mahmood is the act who has gained the most momentum on streaming platforms across the week and now charting at #2 on Spotify Italy chart and #41 on the global chart. On the other hand, Loredana seems to have lost momentum. It’s a hard one to predict but I think the more casual viewers tuning in on Saturday night plus good running order slot could be enough to push Mahmood’s hit song through.
Prediction:
This is the toughest Sanremo to predict in years and even small things like the 5th superfinalist could be enough to change the outcome. I think the backlash from yesterday’s result will be enough to give Angelina the victory. The show will open with Amadeus revealing the current top 30 combined ranking. Angelina in number 2 behind Geolier should act as a signal to jurors on who to line up behind and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Angelina receive around 55% of the press jury vote. It’s important to note that in the superfinal jurors have much more power as they must vote for only ONE act. Whilst it might be difficult for jurors to tactically vote for ONE act they can ensure they do not vote for Geolier. This prevented Ultimo from winning in 2019 and the sentiment towards Geolier feels even more negative than it was towards Ultimo. I think his jury support will be limited to those jurors from his region, and for the radio jury this is limited to around 10% of the juror pool due to regional weighting. Moreover, acts who have a big fan base have usually underperformed in superfinals as the vote is only open for around 15 mins so they don’t have as long to mobilise their fans. The most recent example of this is Fedez in 2021. Looking at the rest of the podium, Geolier’s large televote % should increase the relevance of the radio and press jury even more. This looks to benefit Annalisa who should still be on course to perform well across all 3 voting sections. In terms of my own book I started the week with Annalisa as my biggest green but have now switched to backing Angelina, covering Geolier too.
- Angelina
- Geolier
- Annalisa
- Irama
- Mahmood
Recommended bets:
Back Angelina to win Sanremo 2024 @2.24 (Betfair Exchange)
Back Annalisa Top 3 @1.85 (Bet365)
TVTips.UK 