After 3 weeks of MGP heat we have our first Super Saturday of the season. Let’s take a look at the competitions tonight.

Melodifestivalen

Melfest has by far the most exciting betting market out of all the events tonight. The fight for the 2nd qualification spot seems wide open between a few contenders.

Adam Woods has a standard uptempo number, which sounds like it belongs in Danny Saucedo’s 2010s catalogue, to open the show. He has a cool staging concept. However, the song is quite vocally demanding and Adam’s voice has been quite shaky at a few rehearsals. Nevertheless, this is an entry which benefits from the app and age group system. I can imagine most viewers will be giving this 3/4 app hearts and being universally liked across all age groups. Yet, I think it’s a bit of an uphill climb to grab the 12s and 10s that are needed for the last DTF spot.

Samir and Viktor are making their return to the Mello stage after a long break, with a performance that is almost like a parody of themselves. Their vocals have been pretty poor over the last few days, but the extent to which vocals really matter at Mello is limited. However, they do have a fanbase which keeps them in top 4 contention.

Elisa is bringing a classic schlager entry that so many Mello fans crave. This is a fun number that will be helped by the age group system. She should be scoring 10s and 12s with the older groups and the phone vote. It’s very unlikely the kiddies will get behind this one but she might just scrape enough points for top 4.

Lisa Ajax returns as a soloist with a classic 2016 Zara Larsson heartbreak pop ballad. This is well performed with some excellent vocals on display. The theatrical staging is something we’ve all seen before. More importantly, Lisa’s postcard mentions her pregnancy numerous times and there could be some “sympathy” effect with viewers. She exceeded expectations in the audience poll, where she was just 3 votes behind Samir and Viktor who performed twice. I think older viewers will like this well performed number and Lisa still has a young fanbase behind her.

Smash Into Pieces should be easily winning this heat, but in terms of winning everything I think they’re out of contention. “Hear them calling” is less catchier than “Six Feet Under”, but their staging has elevated somewhat.

Recommended bet:

Back Lisa Ajax DTF @2.55 (Unibet)

Back Elisa to Run Off @1.9 (Unibet)

Benidorm Fest:

The Benidorm Fest voting system essentially gives the winner away. It’s hard to see what could stop St Pedro who scored 94 out of a maximum 96 points with the jury. Nebulossa were the other semi winner but I don’t really see them posing a serious challenge, I think the jury overmarked them in a semi final context to reward their boldness and fun performance. I have Jorge down as the televote and demoscopic jury winner. He is gaining some momentum, currently trending very highly on the Youtube charts. It’s possible that the jury could feel some pressure to increase their scores for him, but audience backlash hasn’t stopped them from burying favourites in the past. Angy could also improve on her semi final placing, she is one of the most known performers and could resonate more with the casual Saturday night audience.

Melodi Grand Prix:

Another National Final where we have a short priced favourite. Before the running order reveal, I leaned towards Keiino taking the win. Their SF performance was fun but also professional. Some on Twitter have said they expect the jury to bury Keiino but I don’t expect this to happen. There will be people in the “Eurovision bubble” on the jury and the vocal performance by Alexandra is very strong. However, NRK have made their intentions clear and probably want to send something that could get some jury points this year. Erika Norwich and Super Rob are the most streamed act this year, but their momentum has stalled after failing to make the top 30 on Spotify. The 1 vote per user limit means there could be some vote split with the uptempos hurting both Keiino and Erika Norwich. Gåte should definitely be the favourites but I think the margin will be closer than expected.

Prediction:

1. Gåte
2. KEiiNO
3. Dag Erik and Anne

Vidbir:

Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil should be running away with this one, but Vidbir jurys can throw a spanner in the works sometimes. This is one to watch for the outright market. I have been sceptical about how the duo will work live, so it’s one to watch. Keep an eye out on the televote margin too, a huge victory against the Melovin fan girls will signal that Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil have potential to rack up a huge televote at ESC by connecting with the diaspora.

Malta Song Contest

The Maltese “establishment” seem to have lined up behind Matt Blxck, although I have seen the girl group win some local polls. I can see “Banana” qualifying at ESC but it needs huge and fun staging!