The 2024 Eurovision national final season kicks off tonight in Marienlyst with the first semi final of Melodi Grand Prix. Let’s take a look at the contenders:
- Mathilde SPZ feat. Chris Archer and Slam Dunk – “Woman Show”: An energetic eurodance party anthem that wouldn’t feel out of place at Melodifestivalen. I imagine this will be given plenty of staging as it is has the task of setting the scene for the rest of the MGP season. The group have already hinted that will be some never seen before staging, which usually means it’ll either be a big success or go down like a lead balloon. The danger with this entry is that the staging could go become too messy if they throw the kitchen sink at it. Striking the balance between slick and fun will be key to their success. I’m leaning towards this being a qualifier, I think this anthem will go down well with a Nordic audience who usually do vote for acts like this in a heat.
- Frederik Halland – “Stranded“: The only male ballad in this year’s MGP, so it does have a strong USP. Male ballads have performed well in the past at MGP with NorthKid and Atle Petterson placing in the top 3 over the last 2 years, however these acts had a much bigger fanbase. Compared to these entries, I think “Stranded” lands on the “too boring” side of the scale. However, with the right staging and camera angles this could be a danger. There is always a constituency for a young man with a heartfelt song in a show with a public vote but I think those viewers wanting something more mainstream will be voting for Margaret. Nevertheless, odds of 7.5 with Unibet feels too big.
- Myra – “Heart on Fire”: There isn’t a lot to say about this one. “Heart on Fire” is a decent pop song that I think will suit the radio more than a live setting. The MGP voting system limits viewers to 1 vote per account. Will this really be the number 1 favourite for many viewers? I’m sceptical about that.
- Gothminister – “We Come Alive”: Gothminister makes his return to the MGP stage after a 10 year break. “We Come Alive” is a gothic rock song that has a surprisingly catchy hook, which makes it a bit more accessible. With the song itself being pretty repetitive, this is a number which is going to rely on the visual to captivate the audience. Gothminister will definitely have his fans but his qualification chances will come down to whether or not this appears to be too niche.
- Ingrid Jasmin – “Eya”: Ingrid is bringing a unique mid-tempo pop song that combines a nordic feel with mediterranean elements. “Eya” seems to be a fan favourite but I’m sceptical of how well it will fare with the Norweigan public. Songs with this mediterranean element have failed to connect with Nordic viewers in the past.There’s definitely staging potential here with a dance break written into the song, but I can also see it fall flat live. Odds of 1.44 to qualify with Unibet are certainly too short.
- Margaret Berger – “Oblivion“: Margaret is aiming to make a return to Malmo after her 4th place finish in Eurovision 2013. “Oblivion” is an airy dark electro pop song with a very nice melody. NRK are clearly wanting Margaret in this final with this pimp slot placing. In terms of the outright market, I think Margaret is heading towards a podium finish rather than challenging for the win. I struggle to see televoters connecting with this as “Oblivion” isn’t attention grabbing and the chorus just isn’t strong enough. A very narrow path exists if the final lineup is heavily tilted towards uptempo/kitschy songs, giving Margaret a strong USP.
As mentioned, I think Ingrid’s odds are too short for a song that falls into a genre which historically has not connected with Nordic viewers. The tip this week will be going to “Woman Show.” I trust that they will get the staging right and create a great party atmosphere that viewers will love.
Recommended bet:
Back Mathilde SPZ feat. Chris Archer and Slam Dunk – “Woman Show” To Qualify @2.0 (Unibet)
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