Another season of Eurovision madness comes to a close tonight in Liverpool’s M&S Bank Arena. Let’s take a look at some of the markets that are on offer.
Outright market: It’s very hard to look beyond Sweden and Loreen making history tonight. Loreen is in a class of her own this year which was clearly shown in her semi final performance. The streaming data for Tattoo is unprecedented and smashing all sorts of records. It is already charting at #69 on the Spotify global top 50 chart with 1.7m streams. The only other entry to have done so before the grand final was Arcade which reached around #180. Many had expected Finland to gain momentum after Tuesday’s semi final with some suggestions he could even be market leader but that has clearly failed to come to fruition. I still expect a televote win for Finland but the data suggests the gap needed against Sweden won’t be near enough to take the victory and that’s without even taking into account how jurors should be rating Kaarija’s vocals . He follows a number of excellent vocalists (Blanca, Loreen, Albina, Marco and Alika) which exposes him even more. I’m pretty confident we will be heading off to Stockholm/Malmo next year!
Top 5: The more interesting question this year is who will complete the top 5.
Ukraine is a huge question mark this year. There are huge red flags with this package in terms of how it could connect with the public: an American sounding song, performers wearing glasses and overpowering projections. In any other year I could see this getting a bottom 5 televote score. Nevertheless, the huge diaspora means Ukraine has a large number of free points. They could get 1 or 2 token jury 12s from the Baltic nations or Poland too.
Israel has a great running order and ok-ish streaming numbers. The slick MTV award show style staging means I expect it to get a top 6 jury score. Noa was vocally good last night too. I have been a bit sceptical about Israel’s televote score. Some elements of the Israeli package come across as a bit too “try hard” whilst Chanel and Eleni were seen to be more fun. Although I think she will get a strong televote in Southern Europe and scoring very well across both constituencies.
Spain disappointed me a little bit by not improving their staging from Benidorm Fest. However, Blanca is vocally as exceptional as always and captivating. There will be an ad break after Spain and Blanca’s ending high note can create an impactful moment. I predict this will come in the jury top 3 but I have always been sceptical about the televote. I expect that Northern and Western Europe will blank this in the televote so top 5 could be just out of reach.
France’s staging comes across as static and La Zarra somewhat unconvincing. However La Zarra was at her best last night managing to hit the high note convincingly. There’s a lot of data suggesting people really like this song, although the running order may hamper the televote slightly. This is on the edge of top 5 for me.
Norway has had excellent streaming data, even beating out Finland once you exclude domestic streaming numbers. Alessandra was a bit off last night but managed to rescue the performance. I think this is one for the casuals and should be getting a very strong televote with jurors also liking the radio friendliness element of the song.
Italy‘s performance at the jury final was as excellent as ever. There were concerns Italy would be dumped early in the running order but has been given slot 11. Marco Mengoni should be in the jury top 5 with this classy number. Some have questioned Italy’s televote potential this year but I have long argued the contrary. Italy usually has a reliable televote and Mengoni is a charismatic good-looking performer that can get votes from middle aged women. I have this one making it into the top 5.
Top 10: I think the market this year is pretty accurate on the top 10.
During the rehearsal period I had been laying Austria for top 10. The staging concept isn’t crazy enough to light up the televote but also not jury friendly enough to score highly there. The #1 slot hampers its score even more as it is quite reliant on televote.
Belgium is one which seems to have gone really down well with Western Europe and the middle aged demographic that enjoys 90s style music. It’s very well sung too and the Eurojury score suggests to me that there is potential for this to get a decent jury score. I have this one in my top 10.
Croatia has been the hot topic of conversation for many after their semi final performance. They have done very well with Youtube views, although much of their traffic is concentrated in the Balkan region. I can see this getting a Konstrakta style result by dominating the region’s televote and getting votes from casuals who perceive the contest to be crazy. 180-200 televote points could be enough for top 10.
Armenia is the odds on top 10 that I could see miss out. Whilst it’s a personal favourite of mine I can see it getting lost in a 26 song lineup. There are other big jury hitters and it feels a bit too anonymous to get a significant televote.
Top 15: Lithuania‘s odds for top 15 seem a bit too long for me. Monika’s entry is the only ballad in the 2nd half. Jurors should be liking this and Lithuania usually has a decent televote because of their diaspora.
Australia on the other hand seems too short to me. It doesn’t really have a great running order. Jurors may like that it’s competent but televoters have much more to turn to.
Slovenia doesn’t really have the best stats either and I could see this just missing out with Croatia eating up the balkan vote.
Last Place: The UK’s Mae Muller was much better last night in front of a roaring crowd. The UK has some of the strongest visuals this year but the vocals do sound empty and makes the song loose some oomph. I think this should get enough points to avoid last. Portugal is my tip for last place. Again there’s not a lot for jurors to like here and a poor running order means they get very lost. I can only really see France, Switzerland and Spain giving this televote points.
Good luck to everyone tonight and here are my final prediction and tips:
- Sweden
- Finland
- Israel
- Italy
- Norway
6-10: Ukraine, France, Spain, Croatia and Belgium
Recommended tips:
Back Italy Top 5 @ 2.75 (Boyle Sports)
Back Italy Top Big 5 @ 3.25 (888 Sport)
Back Portugal Last Place @ 5.0 (Unibet)
Lay Australia Top 15 @ 1.8 (Betfair Exchange)
Back Lithuania Top 15 @ 3.6 (Betfair Exchange)
Back Croatia to beat Austria @1.83 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Back Ukraine for Ireland televote 12 points @2.38 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Back Belgium to beat Armenia @2.0 (Bet365)
Back Armenia to NOT BE IN TOP 10 @2.15 (Unibet)
Back Ukraine Over 0.5 Jury 12s @2.0 (Bet365)
Back Sweden, Finland, Israel, Norway, Italy and Croatia top 10 finish @ 4.07 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Back Sweden to Win, Finland Top 3, Israel Top 5, Norway & France Top 10 @5.0 (StarSports)
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