After a 10/10 prediction on Tuesday night the pressure is on for one of the most unpredictable semi finals in recent memory that will test the true strength of diaspora & bloc voting. Let’s take a look at the contenders.

Safe Qualifiers:

Austria have definitely improved with a crowd in their presence. I am still really unsure about the concept they have gone for. They are definitely aiming for the jury vote by toning down the novelty aspect although I think there’s only so far they can reach with the jury side of the scoreboard. Vocally they are fine but the operatic part remains a bit weak. It is still good enough to sail through and challenge for the semi win but I am of the view that a top 10 placing in the final now looks unlikely.

Australia have the pimp slot which alone is enough to qualify in this semi. They are bringing the energy but I am slightly underwhelmed. Some have said this can win the semi but I have doubts about how voteable the band is and how well the genre can travel. The entry works well with a crowd and combined with the running order should be enough for top 3 in this semi.

Armenia are bringing some of the best camerawork we have seen at the contest this year. There are differing views about the newly added dance break but I think it fits with the package. Brunette is vocally excellent and captivating as a performer. The package as a whole creates a really dreamy pleasant atmosphere. In the final juries will eat this up and I am now expecting a top 10 placing. I do think they may miss out on top 3 here because of the running order.

Cyprus have brought a very competent and slick package to the contest this year. Andrew Lambrou’s vocals are good although he is supported by heavy pre-recorded backing vocals at times. I am quite underwhelmed by the staging as it comes across as very basic to me. There is no big “wow” moment, which I was expecting. There were hopes that this could win the semi but I have been laying it for top 3.

Slovenia is an entry which I can see score well across East and West particularly with younger voters. They don’t really have any staging but the band doesn’t require any with their charisma. I thought their performance at the jury show was a bit underwhelming and lacked some energy. I expect that when it matters they will deliver. I think if they deliver on the night this can make the top 3 by scoring well across all regions.

Lithuania is pretty much a copy and paste of the national selection staging with some new LED content elevating the package. Monika and her backing singers are charismatic and vocally excellent as ever. The entry as a whole is very feel good. A good running order and diaspora allies means this will sail through to the final. This does have the potential to surprise and do better than expected.

Belgium really excelled in front of a crowd. Just as I predicted the Brits went wild for this. It is very fun and after a run of somewhat dreary songs Gustaph really gets the party going. I imagine this will be a favourite of the middle aged demographic. Definitely one that will be sailing through.

Poland started the season being an outside shot for qualification. Blanka’s national selection performance was poor. However, there has been a significant improvement since then. She has managed to improve her vocal and the team has ensured there is a sufficient backing vocal. It is clear that the TVP staging director is trying to make the performance a meme with some of the visual effects and TikTok views show the strategy is working.

Borderline contenders:

Georgia has been drifting in recent days and now is at a price of 1.34 to qualify. Previously I have tweeted that I thought the price of 1.2 was too short. Iru is an excellent vocalist but the main issue is the song. The lyrics are essentially a load of nonsense making the song a “wall of noise” essentially. The staging is also a bit static but does have some good moments. Ultimately in a weak semi I think this is competent enough to make it to the final with the help of a few friends.

Denmark was a country that I thought had potential when pictures of rehearsals were first released. The staging concept itself is cute and reminds me of Armenia 2022. Reiley’s vocal is pretty poor at times although I don’t think it’s as bad as others have stated. Unfortunately, I think this is just too beige and anonymous to stand out from slot 1. It also relies heavily on a teenage girl vote which I think will go for Slovenia instead.

Estonia is an entry which I had as a likely NQ pre-rehearsal but the faltering of others has firmly put it back into contention. The staging has been elevated since Eesti Laul with some really nice LED content. Alika is vocally excellent as ever but has added in some jerky movements in the song which I think is not needed. This is competent enough to qualify although I think from slot 4 it will be forgotten about by the end. Those seeking something competent and accessible may turn to stronger packages from Armenia, Cyprus and Lithuania. Female ballads also have a relatively poor televote record at Eurovision. I’m still keeping this one out of my 10.

Greece seemed to be a sure qualifier before rehearsals started with a great running order and a plentiful number of allies to support it. However since the first rehearsal things seemed to unravel. His 1st rehearsal in full was leaked with a barrage of criticism ensuing from both eurofans and Greek media. However at last nights evening preview show Victor turned it around. Vocally he was good and performed the song well. He does come across as nervous but I think this plays into his hands. Many viewers will admire Victor for going out on stage at the young age of 16 and visible nerves could strengthen this feeling, something which happened with Blanche in 2017 (i’m not comparing the songs at all). Only a fool would rule out Greece in contention with the amount of points they start out with.

Albania is one which has really improved during the rehearsal period. Sacha Jean Baptise’s team has done a good job with making the entry look good on camera. Albina is an excellent vocalist. The first minute of the song appears to be a bit too dark but the instrumental break is very fun. The last 2 minutes comes across as wholesome too and the family aspect may play well with older viewers. The main issue with this country’s qualification prospects is the lack of diaspora countries in this semi. This is an entry which really only appeals to diaspora and Albania is separated from their closest allies (Italy, Switzerland and Croatia). One point in Albania’s favour is the introduction of rest of the world voting. The group are from Kosovo and I believe the semi final is being aired live there. I anticipate they will get the 12 points from this vote which could push them over the line.

I am very confident about the 8 safe qualifiers but the final 2 are ones which I am linger over. It will likely come down to the performances on the night but my final 10 are:

Austria, Armenia, Cyprus, Lithuania, Belgium, Slovenia, Poland, Australia, Georgia and Greece

Recommended tips:

Back Denmark to non-qualify @ 1.83 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Back Romania, San Marino, Iceland and Denmark to non-qualify @ 2.28 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Back Romania, San Marino, Iceland, Denmark and Estonia to non-qualify @4.56

Back Slovenia top 3 @ 3.3 (Betfair Exchange)

Back Austria, Australia, Cyprus, Lithuania, Belgium, Slovenia, Poland and Armenia to Qualify @1.84 (Betfair Sportsbook)